What am I doing wrong?

[Ldubz274]

I have been counting cards for about 16 months now, the first year was not bad, I use The Knockout system for double deck, 55% pen DAS. My spread is $25 to $250 at +4 max bet. According to CVCX my hourly should be $100 per 160 rounds (i only play heads up). Since November I have been losing like crazy, my bankroll was 40K, in November I lost 3K, in December I lost 12K, and so far in the past 3 days I have lost 8K.. i figured i am doing something wrong so i bought casino Verite and my play is perfect. It is extremely devastating for me to keep losing every day like this, I even tried changing casinos, changing tables, no matter where I go it is the worst cards I've ever seen in my life ... I have only played for about 8 hours in the past 3 days but still losing 8k. I am at a 23k at downswing in the past three months, and I've only played for about 150 hours and that 3-month period. This is really demoralizing, and is really affecting me, I am tempted to just quit because I don't know if I can handle feeling this way, the last year I went through downswings to like everybody else, but nothing like this... I am losing one or two thousand every single day, before I would still lose but not like this, I got used to losing a few thousand dollars at a time once in a while, but I am not used to losing every day like this... Does anyone have any similar stories to share with me so I know that I am not alone in this situation? Because even Cvcx shows that my results are about 0.2% probability.


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[Three]

Does anyone have any similar stories to share with me so I know that I am not alone in this situation?

Like you I usually don't see to many rough patches. But I have had one really bad run that sticks out in my mind. I went over a month feeling cursed. Every time I got to betting big it seemed I couldn't win a hand. I certainly didn't win those all important max bet multiple doubles and splits. I would get a 20 on each spot and know the dealer would hit out to 21. After a long weekend where every 20 with max bet out seemed to lose against dealer bust cards, I finally won a 20. I had been getting beaten up so bad it felt weird to win a 20 against a dealer 5 with max bet out.

I have seen these kinds of results on somewhat rare occasions, but they were always short lived. This time it lasted for over a calendar month. I was betting more than you and didn't lose as much as you, probably because I bet my lower bets more frequently and my max bet less frequently because that is what the sims recommend for my approach. As well as the shorter duration of the bad run. But if you don't win any bets or at least you larger bets, you can expect a rough ride during that stretch. It is part of the range of what you should expect. The funny thing is I was averaging 5 figures a month that year. This downswing lasted about 6 weeks and spanned two calendar months. I still won 5 figures in both calendar months.

Sometimes the way you break up your results can make them seem worse than they really are. Try looking at a time frame, number of rounds, that includes your downswing but an equal number of rounds outside of your downswing. It is not really a good representation to talk about odds if you cherry pick a really bad run. When it is a given that you are cherry picking a really bad run, the odds of the bad run happening are not the odds of it happening as a random sampling. Too many people make the mistake of using the odds from a random sampling to be representative of the odds given you cherry picked your worst run. Garbage in, garbage out.

Bad runs happen with 100% certainty if you play long enough betting the way you should be betting. There isn't any way to avoid that. Rather than looking at the odds you would get the bad run from a random sampling, isn't the odds you would see such a bad run given your total play history more to the point. Rare events can and will happen at any time. You can have one happen when you first start counting cards or not see one for a very long time at the start of your card counting history. That is just the nature of rare events. Rare events can stack up or rarely be seen. This is a reality you have to be comfortable with if you are going to be serious about counting cards.

Sorry about the post length. I think this guy needed it.

[BoSox]

The funny thing is I was averaging 5 figures a month that year. This downswing lasted about 6 weeks and spanned two calendar months. I still won 5 figures in both calendar months.

Already understood.

[Three]

Already understood.

Lighten up Francis.

The guy was looking for empathy and encouragement. A portion of my playing history served to do both. What happened to me perfectly illustrated the misleading aspect of cherry picking your worst results and taking them out of context. The point is my results were not really out of the ordinary as you looked at a slightly longer time periods despite being -4 sigma in the short term. Looking at just a slightly larger time frame that included those results showed I was running fairly steady. Those two months just had severe clumping of wins bookending a much longer period of severe clumping of losses. Overall, the two month period looked like an average two month period. The bulk of that years average results happened in 4 individual weeks of play. Three were back to back to back weeks. I altered my strategy to help maintain longevity after having such strong success. I had spread things around between casinos some but I didn't see that type of success being tolerated for long. During this time I saw one casino make changes to adjust to why I was winning but didn't act against me. It wasn't a change in penetration. Apparently, they aren't as stupid as many seem to think they are.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bwUlkKfR_NI

Now if you could just STFU I wouldn't have to post as often. I am starting to think you troll me because you want me to post more often and make longer posts to explain the stuff you can't seem to understand. I am pretty sure you aren't that stupid and understand most of them. Certainly these types of posts by you do nothing but guarantee that I post more frequently and longer posts and you know it. So that must be your goal. IF not then lighten up Francis.

[Meistro123]

Losing half your bankroll and not resizing.

[BoSox]

Lighten up Francis.

The guy was looking for empathy and encouragement. A portion of my playing history served to do both.

Your own examples do not help, because everything ALWAYS turns out right which is already understood, or at least should be by all.

The funny thing is I was averaging 5 figures a month that year. This downswing lasted about 6 weeks and spanned two calendar months. I still won 5 figures in both calendar months.

Already understood.

Three, every one of your posts should be accompanied to the tune of Mighty Mouse.

[Ldubz274]

So the sad part is now, after the last three hundred hours I am at break even.. all of the counters I know in real life I have tried to talk to you about this, and none of them have experienced downswings is this bad...

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[Freightman]

So the sad part is now, after the last three hundred hours I am at break even.. all of the counters I know in real life I have tried to talk to you about this, and none of them have experienced downswings is this bad...

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I have - give or take about 5 years ago. In excess of 3 SD. Rare, but it happens. Play long enough, and you’ll see a lot of shit you wouldn’t expect to see. On the bright side, I’ve been well past 3 SD on the other side of the bell curve. Play long enough, and you should see the same thing.

One thing that most counters will experience - a prolonged period of break even play, and for those that travel, absorption of travel expenses, and for those that play for a living - drawing down on your living bank.

[BoSox]

So the sad part is now, after the last three hundred hours I am at break even.. all of the counters I know in real life I have tried to talk to you about this, and none of them have experienced downswings is this bad...

If the counters you know have not experienced any downswings they are either lying or have only played on very few occasions. Playing 300 hours of break-even play is far from being a rare occurrence. Look at the positive side first you are not behind and you gained 300 hours of learning experience by further evaluating your game.

[Three]

Your own examples do not help, because everything ALWAYS turns out right which is already understood, or at least should be by all.

That is because in the long run everything does work out if you are doing things right. You could say when I hit a BR of $45 K and upping my ramp only to immediately start to lose to well over a third of my BR in less than 10 calendar days, and them resize back to the old ramp and immediately start winning at the smaller top bets is about as bad as results from decision making gets. But I eventually grew my BR to $60K and made the same upping of my ramp with the opposite results. You could say that worked out great for me, because in the long run I got were I needed to go. But to me that was horrible with the worst timed decisions possible. I got there well more than half a year later than I would have with decisions that were timed better.

I am sorry if I am doing things right so my long run is what is expected. I would think that any counter with any decent amount of experience would have the same kind of success if they were doing things right. But what do I know about your playing history or anyone else's. The way you act I have to assume your's hasn't been that good or you would understand that things tend to work out in the long run. Or maybe it is that I do a lot of extra work to make sure my long run is shorter and I don't stray as far from expectation in general. It has to be one or the other. Either way I don't see the point of these constant comments on my posts. I have posted my worst and my best in the past. If they are that much better than your experience than maybe it is system or discipline. If my results aren't that different than yours then what is the point of the comments?

[21forme]

Three, every one of your posts should be accompanied to the tune of Mighty Mouse.

LOL. POM nom.

[SammyBoy]

You more than likely aren't doing anything wrong, bad swings happen. Here is a post I made just a couple days ago, I wasn't sure how to link to it. Hopefully this will make you feel a little better about your skills, but probably won't make you feel better about the prospects of counting cards. I know another very good pro counter (besides the two mentioned below) that figures he had about 1,000 hours of losing before things turned around.

I'm on an 852 hour break even streak counting cards. I'm 620 hours away from my last all time high at earnings from counting. In the 620 hours I'm down nearly 50k. I started counting in 2002 and after 5 or 6 years I didn't think it was possible for ME to have a 200 hour losing streak. I'm very selective about the games I play and even though I've been at this for nearly 20 years I still practice and test myself on CVBJ nearly everyday. My max bet is typically 2x600 although I will bet more than that in very positive counts (where the casino will tolerate that), so 50k isn't that big of a deal but the point is these losing streaks can go on for an extended period. I have two close friends that are struggling with CC as well. One is losing over his last 900 hours the other is at about 600 I think. Both of these guys are pretty well known and very competent. Had my CC career started out like it has over these last 600 hours there is no way I'd still be counting cards.

Many people I know no longer count cards because there are easier ways to make money in the casino. I do it because I like the mental exercise. I'm very fortunate to have been able to make a lot more money over the years playing other games or promotions. Counting is something I do when there isn't anything better and lately I've been doing a lot of counting.

[Three]

So the sad part is now, after the last three hundred hours I am at break even.. all of the counters I know in real life I have tried to talk to you about this, and none of them have experienced downswings is this bad...

When I first got serious about being an AP. I only had about $10K. I had to grow my BR. I went through a cycle of almost making $20K BR (I figured I needed to play better games) and then losing most or all of it back. The cycle happened many times. If I thought what I did to help break the cycle was what got me over the hump I would tell you what it was. Eventually, I got the BR to play better games. But it was just luck that I didn't bust out. I may have help make some of that luck but I don't think what I did had any great significance.

But something I learned over the years is being able to count cards is just where being successful in the casino starts. There is a boatload of judgment that plays into it. Picking times to play, dealers for pen and dealer error, game speed, knowing when to continue to play and when to stop, not playing simply because you showed up so you can be particular about what and when you play. Knowing the difference between heat and normal procedures. All these and more affect your success as more than just being able to count cards. Perhaps the improvements you haven't made concerning your judgement are making things tougher for you. I find I go through a cycle of I do everything right and I do great in general. Then I start feeling overconfident and start playing when I shouldn't and doing other things I know I should avoid doing. It usually doesn't hurt me quick so I get more and more sloppy with my judgment. Eventually it catches up with me and then I make an abrupt reversal to doing everything the way I should and usually results respond well and the cycle repeats.

You have learned to count cards. Now learn how to maximize your results counting cards in the dynamic setting the casino provides. Realize it isn't about getting in the most hours, it is about getting in the most rounds. In particular the most quality rounds. Understand what a quality round is and what helps make them plentiful and what makes them seen far less in the same amount of time. I could list a bunch more things but they are already in Blackjack Attack edition 3. Get a copy. Read the whole thing once. Then read each chapter individually, very slowly and carefully. Then try to use what you learned in that chapter in actual casino play until you have it down. After you master that chapter in actual casino play go on to the next chapter.

You describe yourself as a newbie to AP play that is very competent at counting cards. Now get skilled at the other 75% of being successful in a casino.