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Thread: Is there a chart in internet-land of bust percentages knowing the dealer's hole card?

  1. #1


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    Is there a chart in internet-land of bust percentages knowing the dealer's hole card?

    There are tables of dealer bust percentages for the dealer's up card.

    Is there such a table if you know both of the dealer's cards? For example, dealer has a T up and a 5 in the hole; what percent of the time will (s)he bust?

  2. #2


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    21forme,

    I don't know of any offhand, but you should be able to calculate them recursively without too much trouble.

    For example, assuming 6D (you didn't specify) if the dealer has a 2-card hard 16, then her chance of busting can be calculated as follows:

    First of all, any 6-10 will bust the dealer, while any A-5 will make a standing hand. Since the dealer's first two cards are both in the 6-10 range, of the remaining 310 cards, 24 +24 +24 +24 +96 -2 = 190 will bust the dealer. Thus, with a 2-card hard 16, the dealer will bust 100%*190/310 = 61.29% of the time.

    The rest are up to you ;-)

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    P.S. The WoO has a YouTube video explaining how to calculate an infinite-deck basic strategy. Some of those techniques will be helpful for you. If you don't need more than 2 significant figures in the bust percentages, the infinite-deck values will suffice.

  3. #3
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    Try looking up Double Exposure BJ bust rates.

  4. #4


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    Thanks guys. Didn't find anything already in existence, so will crunch some numbers a la Doghand.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    There are tables of dealer bust percentages for the dealer's up card.

    Is there such a table if you know both of the dealer's cards? For example, dealer has a T up and a 5 in the hole; what percent of the time will (s)he bust?
    This may help - http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

    1. Check or uncheck box labeled 'Conditioned on no dealer BJ where applicable' depending upon whether you want EV given dealer has blackjack (conditional EV) or given dealer does not have blackjack (unconditional EV)

    2. Input whatever player cards you wish in the 'Player Cards' section by clicking the buttons labeled A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T

    3. Click 'Compute' button

    4. Dealer probabilities will be listed at bottom of display in 'Dealer Probabilities' section for dealer up cards of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T,A and also overall (no specific up card) for whatever you have input after new screen appears

    k_c

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by k_c View Post
    This may help - http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

    1. Check or uncheck box labeled 'Conditioned on no dealer BJ where applicable' depending upon whether you want EV given dealer has blackjack (conditional EV) or given dealer does not have blackjack (unconditional EV)

    2. Input whatever player cards you wish in the 'Player Cards' section by clicking the buttons labeled A,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T

    3. Click 'Compute' button

    4. Dealer probabilities will be listed at bottom of display in 'Dealer Probabilities' section for dealer up cards of 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,T,A and also overall (no specific up card) for whatever you have input after new screen appears

    k_c
    I just realized that you wanted dealer probabilities given knowledge of both dealer cards, so my response won't help. I have written a program that can compute dealer probabilities given knowledge of dealer's cards. As Dog Hand says it is not that difficult to do.

    Sorry that I answered a question you weren't asking.

    k_c

  7. #7


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    k_c - No problem. Just wondering... There's an AP I met in LV about 6 years ago who used KC as her handle on BJ21. Is that you?

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