Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

[Three]

If I meant true count then it would have written tc(HL + AA78mTc) >= 4

Since I did not have tc in the equation then it is running count. HL + AA78mTc >= 4*dr

At any rate, now you know.

You need to communicate the way people will interpret what you write if you want them to understand what you intended to communicate.

[bjanalyst]

You will not be convinced unless sims are done.

I am convinced based on comparisons of weighted average CC.

Since I cannot do sims, then I have come to the end of my analysis. I cannot do anything else.

But in defense of weighted CC I would like to show these results below.

The results of sim data showed, from lowest to highest, the power for playing efficiency:
HL, Red 7, KO, Wong's Halves, HO1, Zen, Omega II. Uston APC, HO2

And when these counts are ordered by weighted average CC the resulting order is the same.
Attachment 3324

[bjanalyst]

blackjack forum new page showed the following:

Welcome. If you see any articles of interest to the advantage player community, please send a link to

[email protected]

or add it yourself

(posting instructions)

.

So I included a link to these threads on HL with AA78mTc and KO with AA89mTc and emailed it to [email protected] and asked them if they knew someone who could do sims on theses counts.

Hopefully they know someone who can do sims.

My assumption is if weighted average CC between two counts are equal, the sims will give equal results.

This can be seen in the weighed CC for the counts below which I included in my prior thread:

HL, Red 7, KO, Wong's Halves, HO1, Zen, Omega II. Uston APC, HO2

For example, Uston APC had a weighted average CC of 82.4% and Hi Opt 2 had a weighted average CC of 82.5%. The weighted average CC of these two counts are essentially equal. There must be simulation results for these two well known counts and if these results are looked at I am sure you will see that the simulation results show that these two counts are of equal strength. .

So using all of the HL with AA78mTc changes and HO2 with side count of Aces changes for the Illustrious 18 showed that weighted average CC of HL with AA78mTc was 87.5% and weighted average CC of HO2 with ASC was 87.1% Therefore my conclusion is that sims will show that both of these two counts are equal also.

HL with AA78mTc vs HO2 with Adef.jpg

Hopefully [email protected] can do sims to get a definitive answer to the power of HL with AA78mTc (which will be similar to KO with AA89mTc) and prove that my assumption that equal weighted average CC means equal sim results.

[BoSox]

You need to communicate the way people will interpret what you write if you want them to understand what you intended to communicate.

Coming from you this above quote must be the all-time classic that should be preserved.

[Three]

Coming from you this above quote must be the all-time classic that should be preserved.

Hahaha. This guy has been a learning experience for me. Don't know if it will help but I got a chance to look in the mirror and see some warts.

[DSchles]

Hopefully [email protected] can do sims to get a definitive answer to the power of HL with AA78mTc (which will be similar to KO with AA89mTc) and prove that my assumption that equal weighted average CC means equal sim results.

You have my absolute, 100%-certain guarantee that equal weighted average CC means nothing of the sort!

Don

[bjanalyst]

Ho Don

You are the expert so I take what you say seriously. I know that Uston APC and Hi Opt 2 (no Ace side count) had equal weighted CC and equal simulation results and when ranked by increasing weighted CC the strength of the 10 or so counts I analyzed agreed with sim results of strength. Do based on those observations I stated equal weighted CC means equal sim results.

So I guess the only way you can tell for sure is to do simulations. I do not have simulation software and neither does any of the readers who replied to my post.

So unless simulations are done this will be an unanswered question.

There seemed to be a lot of interest in what I presented. If you can do simulations on HL with AA78mTc for example, I think your readers would be interested in the results.

I have come to a dead end since I cannot do simulations. If you cannot do simulations then these questions will be unanswered.

I hope you can do simulations.

Thanks for replying.

[seriousplayer]

Ho Don

You are the expert so I take what you say seriously. I know that Uston APC and Hi Opt 2 (no Ace side count) had equal weighted CC and equal simulation results and when ranked by increasing weighted CC the strength of the 10 or so counts I analyzed agreed with sim results of strength. Do based on those observations I stated equal weighted CC means equal sim results.

So I guess the only way you can tell for sure is to do simulations. I do not have simulation software and neither does any of the readers who replied to my post.

So unless simulations are done this will be an unanswered question.

There seemed to be a lot of interest in what I presented. If you can do simulations on HL with AA78mTc for example, I think your readers would be interested in the results.

I have come to a dead end since I cannot do simulations. If you cannot do simulations then these questions will be unanswered.

I hope you can do simulations.

Thanks for replying.

I have a lot of Blackjack simulation software (PowerSim, CVDATA, CVCX, BJRM, Combinatorial Analysis, etc). I am just not doing your work for you.

[Three]

I know that Uston APC and Hi Opt 2 (no Ace side count) had equal weighted CC and equal simulation results

You are wrong:

Sim results for 6 deck/1 cut off H17, DAS, LS, $100K BR, RoR 13.5%, optimally bet 1 to 10 spread for each count, play-all.

UAPC full indices:
EV $391.02/100 rounds, SCORE 39.22, CE $196.08, n0 25,497

Hiopt2 no ace side count full indices:
EV $403.59/100 rounds, SCORE 40.37, CE $201.87, n0 24,772

As you can see the sim results are not equal for UAPC and Hiopt2 without the ace side count.

[bjanalyst]

Dear seriousplayer

Previous posts stated that specialty software is needed for these simulations so your software will not work. Also I said I do not know how to do simulations so I can not do them. In addition it is best for independent verification so even if I could do my own sims I really should not.

Finally I did not ask you specifically do the sims. My request was general to ANYONE interested who wanted to run simulations. If you do not want to do sims that is fine. I am not twisting anyone's arm.

So unless someone else wants to do sims then I guess we will never know the answer to HL and AA78mTc or KO with AA89mTc works.

All I can tell you is that I have been using KO with AA89mTc with Carla for over 4 years now and it works great, especially for the Lucky Ladies bet.

Thanks for your interest.

[bjanalyst]

Dear Three

Thanks for Uston APC and Hi Opt 2 simulation results.

Some comments here

My weighted average CC was for S17, DAS, LS game not H17. Also I only included around 25 playing strategy situations for someone back counting, not play all. Yours was play all. And Hi Opt 2 weighted average CC was somewhat larger than UAPC so HO2 should be slightly stronger as it was. Finally the results were still close as were the weighted average CC.

If you compared to a significant difference in weighted average CC like HiOpt 1 or Zen compared to UAPC or HO2 then the differences would be more pronounced.

Using AA78mTc with HL increases HL insurance and hard 12 v 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 hit/stand decisions by 20% to 30%. This will make a huge difference that should show up in simulations.

But again, unless someone is willing to do simulations HL with AA78mTc or KO with AA89mTc will be an unanswered question.

[seriousplayer]

You are wrong:

Sim results for 6 deck/1 cut off H17, DAS, LS, $100K BR, RoR 13.5%, optimally bet 1 to 10 spread for each count, play-all.

UAPC full indices:
EV $391.02/100 rounds, SCORE 39.22, CE $196.08, n0 25,497

Hiopt2 no ace side count full indices:
EV $403.59/100 rounds, SCORE 40.37, CE $201.87, n0 24,772

As you can see the sim results are not equal for UAPC and Hiopt2 without the ace side count.

I wanted to do an exhaustive simulation with the UAPC against the Hi-OPT 2 both with Ace side count for a long time but didn't have a chance to. Glad you were able to do it. You should probably use new indices generated from CVDATA than the indices in "The Million Dollar Blackjack" for Uston APC.

[lij45o6]

Dear Three

Thanks for Uston APC and Hi Opt 2 simulation results.

Some comments here

My weighted average CC was for S17, DAS, LS game not H17. Also I only included around 25 playing strategy situations for someone back counting, not play all. Yours was play all. And Hi Opt 2 weighted average CC was somewhat larger than UAPC so HO2 should be slightly stronger as it was. Finally the results were still close as were the weighted average CC.

If you compared to a significant difference in weighted average CC like HiOpt 1 or Zen compared to UAPC or HO2 then the differences would be more pronounced.

Using AA78mTc with HL increases HL insurance and hard 12 v 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 hit/stand decisions by 20% to 30%. This will make a huge difference that should show up in simulations.

But again, unless someone is willing to do simulations HL with AA78mTc or KO with AA89mTc will be an unanswered question.

bjanalyst: Please see DSchles's previous post concerning CC and expected win-rate:

You have my absolute, 100%-certain guarantee that equal weighted average CC means nothing of the sort!

Don

Of course, your dismissive attitude of performing a sim on your part is not welcomed here. If you can do the given work you presented here, you can write a sim yourself. If I am not mistaken, Excel possesses the propensity/capacity to perform Monte Carlo sims. Consider writing several macros for a new sim file, re-read BJA to get an idea on how to compute proper win-rate, variance, and SCORE, run your sim day and night, then report back to us.

That is what it is going to take to convince us. If you can't convince us, you won't be able to convince other to purchase, let along read, your books.

Again, sim data would add some street creed to your system and would help tremendously will your book's retail.