Adding AA78mTc side count to High Low

[bjanalyst]

Bjanalyst, at this stage of the game, I’m more interested in knowing what’s going on with your relationship with Carla. Is it moving forward?

Personally, I think you two make a good team if you enjoy doing this type of thing together. Back counting and then spreading to multiple hands trying to hit Lucky Lady sounds like an interesting way to spend time together.

I have been with Carla since 2014. I see her several times a week. Remember, we play for very small stakes so no one cares One pit boss who did not know how I play suspected me of counting and told me that I could not bet more than $100 on a hand. But I bet $15 a hand unless I can only find $25 minimum tables which I try to avoid since my day trip bankroll is only $1,000. When LLc = KO + AA89mTc >= 30 for the six deck game the player's advantage skyrockets. This is another advantage of unbalanced counts. The decision of when the play LL is very simple, for the six deck game raise LL bet when LLc >= 30. There is not need to do any true count calculations and the fact that a larger true count is needed for the LL bet when decks remaining decreases is automatically taken care of and built into LLc >= 30. The formula works out very nice.

But there is also a lot of variance in the LL bet because of the large payoffs of 10:1 for suited and 25:1 for suited and matched. So that is why we try to play as many hands starting at $10 on LLc >= 30 and increase more than $10 if we are winning and LLc >= 30. And LL bets are basically independent of bj bets so we get a lot of independent bets when the count goes good.

So yes, Carla and I enjoy playing bj with Lucky Ladies.

[bjanalyst]

What I want to know is what were your playing results for 2018 using this system. Did you have a winning year? How much did you win and Carla win per hour? Did you win on over half the times you played?

I give my winning to Carla as I do not need the money. Carla gets angry if we lose just a few hundred dollars -she does not like losing at all. Remember, the LL bets have very large edges sometimes 10% or 20% or even more! But it also has high variance so that is why we start off playing $10 on as many LL hands as possible when LLc >= 30. And our bj bet is approxaimtlely equal to our LL bet. So the averfage advantage when LLc >= 30 that we are playing into is like 5% or 10%. it is hard to lose when playing into such a large average advantage so we very rarely lose. Although I have $1,000 to gamble with the few times that if I end up losing $700 or $800 I just quit for the day because I am very upsted and have only a few hundred to pay with. Then I just come back the next day or so I never stayed long enough to lose my entire $1,000.

It would be interesting to keep accurate records but I just never did.

[Tarzan]

I was told that for decades bj experts have been trying to devise a bj system that beats that HO2 with ASC and no one has succeeded.

False. I've heard of a guy that has in fact succeeded at this long ago, not very easy, not public, but it's certainly been done.

BJanalyst, you've stated, "I have not made any mistakes and no one has shown any mistakes that I have made", and then practically in the same post put things like, "Also the KO index is 4 for doubling hard 10 v T which is EXACT and totally independent of decks played or decks remaining".

Which is “EXACT” according to what? According to KO? One mistake is to make logically fallacious statements in your posts, something that’s going to really stick out to people on this forum.

You appear to be missing a few fundamental pieces of the puzzle. Have you ever read about anyone talking about a more true True Count, a "truer" True Count? You appear to be falling short on optimal betting right along with vague indices that fall way short of perfect play. The 16vs7 example you gave me left me thinking, "WTF is this? What are the rules, what are the number of cards remaining, what are the specifics of the deck composition?" It was relatively meaningless to me for any comparison sake with not enough points of reference. I don't see your KOAA89mTc5m7c outperforming Hi-Opt2ASC. I'll anxiously await to see a sim result by the time we get to page 75 or 80 of this thread, but I don't have such high hopes.

I would enjoy sitting down with a couple of packs of cards with you to get a better assessment of practical application aspects of what you do in terms of the side counts and things you're doing, but it certainly appears that you're putting a heck of a lot of work into what falls short of both optimal betting and playing efficiency if you wish to outperform Hi-Opt2ASC.

[Tarzan]

Although I have $1,000 to gamble with the few times that if I end up losing $700 or $800 I just quit for the day because I am very upsted and have only a few hundred to pay with. Then I just come back the next day or so I never stayed long enough to lose my entire $1,000.

How does this work out? Two or three max bets and it's over? I hope you're back-counting to be operating on that short a stack.

[bjanalyst]

BJanalyst, you've stated, "I have not made any mistakes and no one has shown any mistakes that I have made", and then practically in the same post put things like, "Also the KO index is 4 for doubling hard 10 v T which is EXACT and totally independent of decks played or decks remaining".

Which is “EXACT” according to what? According to KO? One mistake is to make logically fallacious statements in your posts, something that’s going to really stick out to people on this forum.

When I said EXACT I was referring to the ACCUARCY of the KO true count which pivot is at a true count of 4 . If KO = crc(4) = 4*n where n = number of decks, then tc(KO) = 4 everywhere in the shoe independent of the number of decks remaining. So it was the calculation of the true count at 4 that I was refereeing to as exact. The index of doubling hard 10 v T happens to be 4 which is also the pivot of the KO. No estimation or calculation with decks remaining when you are at the KO pivot of a true count of 4.

Anyway what counts is simulation results. I have already given you my prediction. and I said I was TOLD that no one has devised count to beat HO2 with ASC.

If you know of someone who did devise a system that outperform the HO2 with ASC then I and I think the readers of this forum would be interested if you would post that count on this forum.

I will address your other issues later when I have more time.

[bjanalyst]

I have made the statement earlier that as the CC increases the indices for various numbers of decks converge to the infinite deck index.

So attached are some examples using insurance decision from my 4th book High Low with Plus Minus side counts that shows that as the CC increases the indices for various numbers of decks converge to the infinite deck index.
Indices & CC (1).jpg
Indices & CC (2).jpg

[bjanalyst]

How does this work out? Two or three max bets and it's over? I hope you're back-counting to be operating on that short a stack.

I am flat betting $15 on 2 to 4 hands (Carla or I play one or two hands if spots available) when either KO >= 24 or I start betting $5 on LL when LLc = KO + AA89mTc >= 24 and if LLc >= 30 then I start betting $10 on LL on as many hands as possible and if I am winning and LLc >= 30 then I start increasing LL bet. The maximum LL bet allowed is $25.

So with a $1000 bankroll and flat betting $15 then $15 I also my maximum bet and so my bankroll is (1000 / 15) = 66 fifteen dollar bets. This is a DAY trip bankroll for 4 or 5 hours most of which is back counting. So losing two or three maximum bets is losing two or three $15 bets since4 $15 is my maximum and minimum and all bets. Losing three $15 bets is losing $45 and with $1,000 I am still have plenty to play with. It is not over if I lost three $15 bets!

[BoSox]

Suggestion: with your mathematical knowledge and the money you've made from playing the game, don't you think you might be able to afford to go to the casino with more than $1,000 in your pocket and play properly? Just sayin'.

Don

I could go with more than $1,000 but I play for fun and to make a little money. I play bj so I can play the the Lucky Ladies.

bjanalyst, what about substantiating for the utilization of your time "4 to 5 hours a day" spent being there in the first place? All of those positive EV situations you come across, and sometimes all you put up is a $25 bet, and rarely at that. I know you say that you play for fun but seriously you are literally throwing money down the drain in lost opportunities as Don suggested.

[Gronbog]

Anyway what counts is simulation results. I have already given you my prediction. and I said I was TOLD that no one has devised count to beat HO2 with ASC.

If you know of someone who did then I and I think the readers of this forum would be interested if you would post that count on this forum.

You seem to have selective memory on a few things.

What I said to you, and clarified on this very thread is that folks have tried to tweak other systems using side counts for years without beating HiOpt II + ASC. I also said that I knew of several original systems which do beat it. Tarzan's own system is one of them. The sim results were posted here. It should be easy to find them.

You also need to stop saying that KO is too difficult to simulate.i simulated your Hilo system because that's the one you asked me for.

[Norm]

I have already given you my prediction. and I said I was TOLD that no one has devised count to beat HO2 with ASC.

Of course there are superior systems. For example, Hi-Opt II ASC with multi-parameter tables. Or, Hi-Opt II for play and RPC for betting.

[refinery]

Or, Hi-Opt II for play and RPC for betting.

Doesn't sound so hard!

[Norm]

I simmed it once. Helluva SCORE.

[kwso]

Mr. BJanalyst,
You cannot expect people to take your words for it without sim. You write you don’t need money and you give your winning away. Why don’t you use your winning to pay Mr. Gronbog to do the KO sim? If the sim proves you are right, you shut everybody up. Maybe you will sell a lot of books.