Losing entire bankroll at very high counts

**Ptc** · 12-20-2018, 07:27 AM

Good morning. I have been running the verite app on my phone for a few months. I tried hi lo at a casino a few times and realized I wasn’t close to being ready for that.

So it’s been months of practice using Snyder’s red 7 count. With just a few deviations. Stand 12-2 12-3 16-10 15-10 and insure.

I started with a $50000 bank roll using 1-8 spread.

And it was going great. I don’t know how many hours I played. But it was several hours a day for maybe a few weeks. And overall I’ve been playing and studying maybe a year off and on.

Up until a few days ago that bankroll had climbed to almost a million dollars. Which I kind of think is too good to be true.

And count is perfect because I’m constantly checking to see if I’m correct.

I’m basically wonging as much as I can on the app, betting $1 and then just cycling through an eight deck shoe just trying to perfect BS.

I start my count at 34 on an 8 deck shoe and call 49 the pivot when I start betting that first unit.

As I said I was doing great when I was betting 2 units at like a 53. But I keep losing when the count goes into the 60-70 range.

My high bet on like $800,000 was 120,000. Is that right? That means if I split and double both I have about half my bankroll on the table. That can’t be right can it? The amount of money doesn’t really matter. It’s gonna be half on a $1000 bank or 5000 bank.

Anyway I lost it all in like one session at a count of 74. (That’s like a 14 for normal people. I just don’t like the added confusion of crossing into the negative integers.)

The 50k was just an experiment. I should prob go back and start with my intended bank of like 4K. But I had sort of gotten attached to my almost million pretend dollars lol.

I’m wondering if I lost if because I’m not using enough deviations or if I’m misunderstanding calculating bet units based on 2% of my total bankroll.

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**Freightman** · 12-20-2018, 07:35 AM

There’s this little concept called Kelly criterion that you should do some study. After you do, you’ll learn that risk of ruin at full Kelly is 13.5 %. Once you figure that out, then learn th3 concepts if half Kelly, and quarter Kelly.

Having said that, looks like your real roll is 4K. In which case, you do need to assume a higher risk factor. Other issues come into play that may affect you would be - replenishable or not, and of course, game conditions such as deck pen an$ rule set.

**Three** · 12-20-2018, 07:40 AM

Originally Posted by Ptc

I’m wondering if I lost if because I’m not using enough deviations or if I’m misunderstanding calculating bet units based on 2% of my total bankroll.

More deviations would help some. You seem like you need to train your mind for the counting part but learning more indices should be fast and easy. But if you are playing shoe games betting is far more important. You were way over betting. As you pointed out you could lose your entire BR in one round. Your max bet doesn't even allow for 7 max bets if you start doubling and splitting at max bet. I play 2 hands and getting 7 bets out happens rarely but regularly with doubles and splits. Getting 6 bets out is not that uncommon.

**stopgambling** · 12-20-2018, 09:14 AM

without reading too deeply into your essay i would say that a counter would never lose for than 15% of their bankroll in a shoe generally . So , for you to lose an entire bankroll in a shoe just spell that you do not know what you are doing. You indicate you have been learning for few hours a day for a whole year showed that you got this all wrong.

**stopgambling** · 12-20-2018, 09:22 AM

Also why would you bet $120k(fake money) at tc 14 on a $800k( fake money) bankroll, which is 15% of your bankroll ? You should probably like 6% x .75 which 4.5% of the bank at FULL KELLY ,which is still very high IMO. So you got it all wrong even after all the hours that you have been claimed to be studying . GOOD LUCK , YOU will definitely need it at the tables . P.s. 6.5% is more right i think .

**Ptc** · 12-20-2018, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

Also why would you bet $120k(fake money) at tc 14 on a $800k( fake money) bankroll, which is 15% of your bankroll ? You should probably like 6% x .75 which 4.5% of the bank at FULL KELLY ,which is still very high IMO. So you got it all wrong even after all the hours that you have been claimed to be studying . GOOD LUCK , YOU will definitely need it at the tables . P.s. 6.5% is more right i think .

Thanks. Yes I think I have misread bet spread somehow. I will read a bit Kelly. I’ve never heard about it. Yep I’ve lost a very small amount at the actual casinos and plan to keep looking into it and if I can’t figure it out prob let it go.

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**Ptc** · 12-20-2018, 11:47 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

There’s this little concept called Kelly criterion that you should do some study. After you do, you’ll learn that risk of ruin at full Kelly is 13.5 %. Once you figure that out, then learn th3 concepts if half Kelly, and quarter Kelly.

Having said that, looks like your real roll is 4K. In which case, you do need to assume a higher risk factor. Other issues come into play that may affect you would be - replenishable or not, and of course, game conditions such as deck pen an$ rule set.

Thanks for that. I’ll look into the Kelly criterion.

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**Freightman** · 12-20-2018, 12:22 PM

Originally Posted by Ptc

Thanks for that. I’ll look into the Kelly criterion.

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The real expert on Kelly would be a Don. Kelly criterion is actually a formula tied to the stock market, essentially about not putting all of your eggs in one basket. The salient point there is that your investments are tied to their risk and in proportion to your investment bank.

Converted to blackjack methodology, the reality is that Kelly is more of a guide, or a tool, that needs to be adjusted because of the negative effect of your non advantageous minimum bet. That being said, it is a valuable tool to coordinate your bets relative to your advantage.

Full Kelly is a roller coaster ride which will likely cause sleepless nights due to huge negative variance swings. The larger your bankroll becomes, the greater, normally, your aversion to risk becomes, and thus the terms and philosophies of half Kelly or quarter Kelly comes into play. This aversion to risk is typical of the average knowlegable investor. With a low investable base, tolerance to risk is generally higher, and as that base becomes larger, risk aversion increases, primarily because the need for additional risk becomes lower.

**winnawinna** · 12-20-2018, 02:59 PM

I’m curious why do you start your count at +34? Isn’t the formula -2*n(n=#decks). So an 8 deck shoe you would start at -16 and a 6 deck at -12. 0 would be your pivot. I’m thinking you want to eliminate the negative numbers but I’ve been using R7 for almost 10 years and it’s much easier having the pivot at 0. I also count all 7s as .5

**Ptc** · 12-20-2018, 03:08 PM

Originally Posted by winnawinna

I’m curious why do you start your count at +34? Isn’t the formula -2*n(n=#decks). So an 8 deck shoe you would start at -16 and a 6 deck at -12. 0 would be your pivot. I’m thinking you want to eliminate the negative numbers but I’ve been using R7 for almost 10 years and it’s much easier having the pivot at 0. I also count all 7s as .5

It seemed like crossing back and forth over the zero and saying to myself m 1 or something like that was not as easy as never going negative. It’s definitely easier for me to always be on a positive count.

How is red7 working for you?

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