so the casino im playing in is pretty easy to hop on and off. they only have six 4d games so i leave the table when tc is below - 2 or if the rc goes too low in the first 3 rounds and play at the other table. is this mathmatically efficient way to play? has there been any study on this matter?
As everyone likely knows, I’ve adopted a play all style, though I do Wong out from time to time. Comments below based in 6d, adjust for pitch and 8d.
The issue, for the wonger, of wonging out is predicated on several factors, and needs to be evaluated on a shoe by shoe basis.
Issues which enter into the equation, in no particular order- what is the true count, how many players at the table, where are you in the shoe, what is the deck pen, how many other tables are available. - among others.
If the count is in the toilet and you’re heads up, and you’re only half way thru the shoe, it’s time for a whiz, a long one. If the count has gone south, and you only have a few rounds left, play them out. If the count is shitty, and the ploppy next to you has spread to 2, keep going or tell all the flow has changed - etc etc etc.
While I agree with this the BJA ultimate work on the subject says to leave even a modest advantage late in the shoe. I make a lot of decisions based on other things that are important to consider in a casino than just maximizing EV. On a computer maximizing EV is obviously what you do. But in a casino there are many other factors to consider. Freighter covered most of them.Originally Posted by Freightman
I would add heat into the equation.
The only time I was getting really high heat I left a monster count at the end of the shoe. I had been way down and made a huge comeback in one shoe. At the point I got ahead the Floor quickly pointed it out like he was worried I would get ahead and was keeping close track of things. The pit was dead so he didn't have anything else to do but watch as I kept making huge bets. I won a bunch of rounds in a row with lots of BJs, doubles, and splits among them. The last round got me ahead about $400 for a few hours of play. I had been playing too long and it was time to leave at the end of the shoe. I thanked him for pointing it out so I could leave without losing and colored up. There was probably a few rounds or so left in the shoe and I likely would have had a big swing one way or the other. I was sure I would be reviewed if I played the shoe out. I normally survive a review pretty good but I had been playing like a computer after I got down real bad (The way I figure it, if they want me gone they will find a reason even if none exist, and if they are looking for an excuse to let me play I give them lots and lots of them so they will be able to let me play). I am still welcome to play there years later. I think that would have been my last day playing there had I played out the shoe. That was the only time I walked from a monster count. I think it was a plus EV move when longevity is factored in.
The battle with reviews is avoiding them altogether. Normally I do enough to survive a revue if they want to let me play. I knew this session would be different. I did what no AP would do and what a ploppy is likely to do. But most importantly what made the Floor comfortable not ordering a review. Since then they have let me get away with a lot I wouldn't have been able to get away with otherwise. Quelling heat is about knowing when you need to show them you are not an AP. This was definitely the right time. The go with an assessment for a while and then they reassess. It lust felt like reassessment time and if it was I didn't like my chances if I played out the shoe. I didn't have a lot of playing history at the casino. These things are judgment calls where you never know if you made the right decision. You only know when you made a wrong decision that results in a backoff. I didn't make that type of wrong decision. I call that a victory given what I was seeing. They know me better now and are much more comfortable letting me play for a while.
Forgot to mention - just because the count is in the toilet, it is the necessarily a reason to Wong out.
Just as we’ve all had issues with all of the good stuff being behind the cut card, I recently maintained a multi unit bet into a steadily declining true count - somewhere around -7 - before I reduced. Seems all the crappy stuff was behind the cut card.
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