Splitting 8s vs X on high counts.

[Ldubz274]

I generated a sim using Knock out for indexes. I always split my 8s vs X. But i am thinking about stopping. I always end up losing both on high counts. The sim said to split on anything +10 and under. But i cannot justify splitting on anything higher than +5. The most money i have lost is from splitting 8s vs 10 on a max bet. Then i get another 8 and resplit. I had 3 18s and one 19 and the dealer pulls monkey. I get killed in that situation alot more often than not. I understand that the return is slightly better for splitting, but it is a very small difference. I am thinking it is one of those indexes where the difference in EV is so small, but the risk it gives you is very high.

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[Reign Man]

You've stumbled into something called risk-averse indices. You can wait until about 1 TC higher than the playing deviation calls for & just hit instead of putting twice as much money down on 10 vs 10/A, 9 vs. 7, 8 vs 5/6.

You made the correct *decision* to split 8s v. 10, but you had a bad *result*.

[Freightman]

You are obviously playing a no surrender game. Geez, I hate those.

Your best play in positive counts is clearly defensive. But split is the play until you get super high. So, there is nothing wrong with a risk averse stand at some missed co7nt.

FWIW, I have really good success at splitting 8’s v 10 in shittyy negative coouts.

[21forme]

Hate to burst your bubble Freightman, but there aren't too many LS games out there any more, or too many S17 games, or too many 3:2 games... :-)

With HiLo, the RA index for 88vT is +3. I typically stand, rather than split, when I have max bet out.

[BoSox]

You've stumbled into something called risk-averse indices. You can wait until about 1 TC higher than the playing deviation calls for & just hit instead of putting twice as much money down on 10 vs 10/A, 9 vs. 7, 8 vs 5/6.

On that 10 vs 10 play the EV maximizing play is TC +4 the risk averse play is TC+7. It is better to wait for that higher TC on that play as the EV gains at each lower True Count than +7 are small and get smaller the lower the TC gets and basically amounts to trading variance with the house, which is not a good idea. Not to mention it is a tell "bet size" as YOU will not be making that play all that often even though the plops will be.

[BoSox]

Hate to burst your bubble Freightman, but there aren't too many LS games out there any more, or too many S17 games, or too many 3:2 games... :-)

I play against an up front house edge of .269% six deck. Unfortunately I am skeptical because of the Beast "even sounds funny" LOL. Go ahead and have your fun guys especially MWPlayer. Seriously, as just one example: not so recently I have resplit Aces so many times over a six week period it is amazing.

[Freightman]

Hate to burst your bubble Freightman, but there aren't too many LS games out there any more, or too many S17 games, or too many 3:2 games... :-)

With HiLo, the RA index for 88vT is +3. I typically stand, rather than split, when I have max bet out.

In my neck of the woods, lots of ES10.

[Freightman]

On that 10 vs 10 play the EV maximizing play is TC +4 the risk averse play is TC+7. It is better to wait for that higher TC on that play as the EV gains at each lower True Count than +7 are small and get smaller the lower the TC gets and basically amounts to trading variance with the house, which is not a good idea. Not to mention it is a tell "bet size" as YOU will not be making that play all that often even though the plops will be.

My last 2 10v10 doubles were both higher than +7, both drawing stiffs. Not pretty.

[Freightman]

I play against an up front house edge of .269% six deck. Unfortunately I am skeptical because of the Beast "even sounds funny" LOL. Go ahead and have your fun guys especially MWPlayer. Seriously, as just one example: not so recently I have resplit Aces so many times over a six week period it is amazing.

Juicy rule set for .269 house edge on 6d.
In new surroundings! I always ask myself - what spread do I need to beat, and what spread can I get away with. I have to ask - what’s the deck pen.

[Jack Jackson]

I generated a sim using Knock out for indexes. I always split my 8s vs X. But i am thinking about stopping. I always end up losing both on high counts. The sim said to split on anything +10 and under. But i cannot justify splitting on anything higher than +5. The most money i have lost is from splitting 8s vs 10 on a max bet. Then i get another 8 and resplit. I had 3 18s and one 19 and the dealer pulls monkey. I get killed in that situation alot more often than not. I understand that the return is slightly better for splitting, but it is a very small difference. I am thinking it is one of those indexes where the difference in EV is so small, but the risk it gives you is very high.

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RISK_AVERSE SPLITS

Splitting 88 vs X is a defensive split and your typical dead-meat hand.. In an ideal world and with a healthy BR i would use the Maximizing index and split up to four times.. However for those of us that gamble with a little higher RoR than others, and perhaps "depending" on the size of your bet, using a risk-averse index and/or even splitting only once might be a good idea and could and would significantly lower variance...

Sometimes i even use this method when splitting XXs.. It just depends on the count, BR and how much im betting at the time in terms of units...

[stopgambling]

RISK_AVERSE SPLITS

Splitting 88 vs X is a defensive split and your typical dead-meat hand.. In an ideal world and with a healthy BR i would use the Maximizing index and split up to four times.. However for those of us that gamble with a little higher RoR than others, and perhaps "depending" on the size of your bet, using a risk-averse index and/or even splitting only once might be a good idea and could and would significantly lower variance...

Sometimes i even use this method when splitting XXs.. It just depends on the count, BR and how much i m betting at the time in terms of units...

I am more inclined to do so as well , yet i don't bother to remember what the index from a lack of use. i rather seek out good condition than dwell on the small nuances . That is just me. I still regret that how I try to maximize each session's EV and forget about an even more important criteria , that is how to do it without getting caught ( maximize long term EV)

[Three]

Splitting 88 vs X is a defensive split and your typical dead-meat hand.. In an ideal world and with a healthy BR i would use the Maximizing index and split up to four times.. However for those of us that gamble with a little higher RoR than others, and perhaps "depending" on the size of your bet, using a risk-averse index and/or even splitting only once might be a good idea and could and would significantly lower variance...

Yes. The covariance for splitting 8,8 against a T at a high TC is quite high. At lower counts you will hit almost all your stiffs and bust more hands. When you tend to make 18's most of the time the covariance goes up considerably. Of course if you are making 18's a lot you know what the likely hole card is. It doesn't bode well for winning any of your splits. I surrender this matchup much more aggressively with big bets out and a high T density. I can handle a half max bet loss with a little loss in EV better than 2 to 8 max bet swings that are heavily weighted toward being downsings. I like to take the certainty of BR growth into account as the biggest factor in my decisions.

CE is blind to what direction swings tend to be. But you can use judgement to give up some EV where you are helping to stack variance from your largest bets to favor upswing variance over downswing variance. This matchup with big bets out is a huge contributor to large downswing variance and less a contributor to large upswing variance. My judgement says the lost EV is well spent when it comes to increasing the likelihood of growing my BR steadily rather than having BR growth interrupted by large downswings. But that is just my personal preference. Others may not care about steadily increasing their BR and put the emphasis on generating EV no matter how adversely it affects BR growth.

[Dbs6582]

Others may not care about steadily increasing their BR and put the emphasis on generating EV no matter how adversely it affects BR growth.

Three, your last sentence made no sense. Everybody cares about growing their bankroll. That’s why we’re APs. If we put the “emphasis on generating EV” isn’t this the same thing as putting an emphasis on growing our bankroll? How are these two things different?

With a big initial bankroll and low ROR shouldn’t we just try to maximize EV? Shouldn’t this give us the biggest bankroll in the long run?