Crazy downswings.

[Ldubz274]

What's everybody's worst variance stories? I have been playing for 1 year now. Decent game. Double deck, H17 DAS with about 55% penetration. I play at the $25 min table because it is always empty so i am always getting a heads up game with about 160-190 hands per hour. I have been using the knock out strategy with full indeces generated using CV data. My spread is a 10 unit bet spread at a 25$ min table. My hourly is $100 per hour. In 10 months after 300 hours i was up 28k which is slightly less than my hourly. But all the sudden since November started I am getting killed. The month of November I lost 3k. And so far this month i have only played 22 hours and I am losing 15k!!! In only 22 hours!!! That is a 60 max bet downswing in only 22 hours. If you include the 3k downswing from last month then it becomes a 72 max bet downswing. Now whos dumb idea was it to reccomend a 100 max bet bankroll? Trust me it is not nearly enough. You need at least 300 max bets to be safe.

[Meistro123]

Well you can always resize when you are losing, but 60 max bets is pretty harsh indeed.

[Midwest Player]

Looks like they set the shuffle machine to "beast mode."

[Freightman]

Looks like they set the shuffle machine to "beast mode."

Are you Midwest Player, or Midwest Genius?

[21forme]

Are you Midwest Player, or Midwest Genius?

He's Midwest Instigator.

[ShipTheCookies]

Looks like they set the shuffle machine to "beast mode."

I thought that was pretty funny. Apparently others didn't.

[Freightman]

I thought that was pretty funny. Apparently others didn't.

It was. You clearly missed the dryness. In order to catch the dryness, you need to understand other characters on the forum, especially those proffering conspiracy theory as it relates to ASM.

To assist you in your further understanding

https://youtu.be/Cs3IYtjiZSU

[Dbs6582]

I thought that was pretty funny. Apparently others didn't.

I liked it too. I gave him a helpful.

[Stealth]

And so far this month i have only played 22 hours and I am losing 15k!!! In only 22 hours!!!

Well, all of us try to welcome the positive variance and to understand the reason for the negative variance. You are one in a long list with these concerns.

However, the math says your 15K loss in 22 hours of 170 RPH 2d heads up play is just over - 2 standard deviations. That is, you have less than (not zero!) 5% chance of being in that position. But you are!

The suggestions for 100 max bets likely did not include -2 SD!

THe math does not provide an answer, as the possibility of your results being "normal" still exist, however, I have found those instances of -2SD do raise a flag worthy of inspections and at about 4000 rounds can be highly suspect for other issues being involved. Those issues can be under or over betting or mistakes in playing protocols. I do not pretend to know which might be involved, if any, in your case but suggest you do a review of your game to insure their are no holes.

The veracity of the math improves as the number of rounds approaches or exceeds N0. N0 for your game is around 15,000 so you are only about a quarter of the way there, so the measure of your position may be skewed by the smaple size in number of rounds.

If that is done with no identification of any issue then go play and quit whinning.


LOL

[Ldubz274]

I ran the cvcx data and it only showed about a 1.5 ish% chance.... I use the easiest system in the book. KO with full indeces. I even purchased qfits Blacjjack verite app and plugged in my indeces generated from CV data and it gives me drills. Always the play drills are 100% accurate for me. And on index drills i am about 85% accurate. The only ones i have not to remember like the back of my hand are the lower soft hands vs a small dealer card A,2 vs like 3 or 4. But not doubling a hand like that wouldnt make up for my huge bad run. It is just annoying. I played again today, it was +8 so i split my 10s vs dealers 4. I get two 20s. Dealer has 4. Pulls 7 then monkey. Fucking kidding me. Stuff like that has been happening all the time latley. 500$ bet lost with two 20s.... it almost makes me think it is somehow rigged, but I know it's impossible, nobody wants to be the one person who ends up hitting the risk of Ruin, but it could be that that is happening to me...

[Stealth]

And on index drills i am about 85% accurate.

Just validates my earlier comments.

BTW......CVCX plays like a computer, we do not.

Your comments are indicative of a junior player with expectation beyond reality.

ALL OF US HAVE COUNTLESS STORIES ABOUT BAD BEATS! Frankly, I couldn't care less that at +8 you split 10s and lost and neither do the experienced players.

Go verify your game and validate your protocols and go play......... or not........

[Reign Man]

Playing heads up DD also gives the opportunity to have the winning streaks followed by -2 SD downswings in just a month. My biggest session win was heads up. I wasn't too happy about it at the time b/c I thought, 'I could just have easily have lost that much.' Perhaps it's that attitude that's kept me going through years long stretches of breaking even.

Your comments are indicative of a junior player with expectation beyond reality.

ALL OF US HAVE COUNTLESS STORIES ABOUT BAD BEATS! Frankly, I couldn't care less that at +8 you split 10s and lost and neither do the experienced players.

Go verify your game and validate your protocols and go play......... or not........

Agreed. Practice deck estimation drills, 1/4 deck estimation becomes more important in DD. Not that the count is to blame, but Knock-out isn't appropriate for DD. Shoe games could extend your longevity. Your -2 SD downswing is a combination of a completely normal and to be expected run of bad variance + not betting / playing every hand correctly.

[Optimus Prime]

It was +8 so i split my 10s vs dealers 4. I get two 20s. Dealer has 4. Pulls 7 then monkey.

A sim would have re-split - why didn't you?