Optimal Bet and masuring variance

**Sonuvabish** · 02-25-2013, 02:45 PM

Varance--When I first stated counting, little did I know I was still playing at a disadvantage. I'd bet an extra 50 cents for every +1. So the counts plus 3 im betting 6.50. Get it? I slowly raised my bets after id win or break even a bunch of times, and I kept track of my record (i dont wanna hear how days are irrelevant, i dont care). I was 28-4 in my first 32 trips, win-loss record. Frequently I got behind, but id just keep playing, and eventually id get back to even. After all, w/counting, i was at less than a .5% disadvantage...so i was bound to get above even at some point and then id cash out. Now I bet subtantally more. Variance is huge...so far this year i am 10-6. Why? shouldnt that be closer to my earlier domination?

Optimize--I bet in $6 increments (i dont care if u think that's stupid). So at 0, im bettin 5, at 1 im bettin 6, 2, im betting 12, plus 10 im betting 60 etc. w/wong out at -2. can anyone tell me what my avg. bet is, and how to optimize my betting schedule W/OUT betting any more or less money?

**Solo player** · 02-25-2013, 05:06 PM

Masuring varance is tuf. kinda lick spellin "missusipea" and reading ur postses

**AP360** · 02-25-2013, 05:14 PM

Originally Posted by Solo player

Masuring varance is tuf. kinda lick spellin "missusipea" and reading ur postses

LOL!!!

**22 Dreams** · 02-25-2013, 07:47 PM

28-4...10-6...are you fighting for home-court advantage in the playoffs?

**brh** · 02-26-2013, 02:35 AM

Originally Posted by Sonuvabish

Varance--When I first stated counting, little did I know I was still playing at a disadvantage. I'd bet an extra 50 cents for every +1. So the counts plus 3 im betting 6.50. Get it? I slowly raised my bets after id win or break even a bunch of times, and I kept track of my record (i dont wanna hear how days are irrelevant, i dont care). I was 28-4 in my first 32 trips, win-loss record. Frequently I got behind, but id just keep playing, and eentually id get back to even. After all, w/counting, i was at less than a .5% disadvantage...so i was bound to get above even at some point and then id cash out. Now I bet subtantally more. Variance is huge...so far this year i am 10-6. Why? shouldnt that be closer to my earlier domination?

Optimize--I bet in $6 increments (i dont care if u think that's stupid). So at 0, im bettin 5, at 1 im bettin 6, 2, im betting 12, plus 10 im betting 60 etc. w/wong out at -2. can anyone tell me what my avg. bet is, and how to optimize my betting schedule W/OUT betting any more or less money?

It might help if you say what sort of game you are playing, desks, rules etc.. I assume you are using Hi-Lo ?

Brh.

**Sonuvabish** · 02-26-2013, 07:47 AM

Originally Posted by Solo player

Masuring varance is tuf. kinda lick spellin "missusipea" and reading ur postses

my keyboard is cordless dick. i was too far away and it didnt pick up the e. thanks for help.

**Sonuvabish** · 02-26-2013, 07:52 AM

Originally Posted by 22 Dreams

28-4...10-6...are you fighting for home-court advantage in the playoffs?

are u stupid or do u just suck at being funny?

**Sonuvabish** · 02-26-2013, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by brh

It might help if you say what sort of game you are playing, desks, rules etc.. I assume you are using Hi-Lo ?

Brh.

h17 das ls.. full indices rpc

**Solo player** · 02-26-2013, 09:19 AM

Originally Posted by Sonuvabish

my keyboard is cordless dick. i was too far away and it didnt pick up the e. thanks for help.

Take some of your winnings from counting cards and buy a new keyboard. It is not working well at all. Have nice day.

**Dog Hand** · 02-26-2013, 05:50 PM

Originally Posted by Sonuvabish

Varance--When I first stated counting, little did I know I was still playing at a disadvantage. I'd bet an extra 50 cents for every +1. So the counts plus 3 im betting 6.50. Get it? I slowly raised my bets after id win or break even a bunch of times, and I kept track of my record (i dont wanna hear how days are irrelevant, i dont care). I was 28-4 in my first 32 trips, win-loss record. Frequently I got behind, but id just keep playing, and eventually id get back to even. After all, w/counting, i was at less than a .5% disadvantage...so i was bound to get above even at some point and then id cash out. Now I bet subtantally more. Variance is huge...so far this year i am 10-6. Why? shouldnt that be closer to my earlier domination?

Optimize--I bet in $6 increments (i dont care if u think that's stupid). So at 0, im bettin 5, at 1 im bettin 6, 2, im betting 12, plus 10 im betting 60 etc. w/wong out at -2. can anyone tell me what my avg. bet is, and how to optimize my betting schedule W/OUT betting any more or less money?

Sonuvabish,

I guessed that the game you're playing is 8D, H17, DAS with 6.5/8 pen, and that you're using Complete HiLo with three other players. If those guesses are wrong, feel free to post corrections and I'll try to re-run the results.

I used CVCX to sim this game. Using the betting schedule you mentioned (wong out at -2, bet $5 at -1 & 0, then bet $6 times the TC for TC's of +1 up to +10, and $60 for TC's above +10), I found an average bet of $7.69, an IBA of 0.561%, a WR of $3.65, and an N0 of 94,222. Skipping all rounds with TC's of -2 & below, you'll play 84.6% of the rounds.

Using the same spread of $5 to $60, CVCX suggests this schedule: wong out at -2, bet $5 at -1 to +1, $25 at +2, $45 at +3, and $60 at +4 & up. This gives an average bet of $11.30, an IBA of 0.897%, a WR of $8.57, and an N0 of 56,619. Skipping all rounds with TC's of -2 & below, you'll play 84.6% of the rounds.

The problem with your bet schedule is that you're waiting much, MUCH too long to place you max bet. With your schedule, you'll be max-betting about 0.1% of the time; with the CVCX schedule, you'll be max-betting about 4.8% of the time.

By the way, even the CVCX schedule I've given does not give a good game by any stretch.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand