The efficacy of not splitting in a high count index play?

[21forme]

Suppose you're near the end of the shoe. You get a hand such as 44v4 and the index calls for a split. However, if you split, it's likely that the cut card will appear during the round. If you double, you're likely to get an additional round.

Would you still split, or try to preserve cards so you can play another round at an advantage?

[Freightman]

Suppose you're near the end of the shoe. You get a hand such as 44v4 and the index calls for a split. However, if you split, it's likely that the cut card will appear during the round. If you double, you're likely to get an additional round.

Would you still split, or try to preserve cards so you can play another round at an advantage?

Here is where a form of artistry plays a role. My natural inclination is to make the best play - which is what I’ll do heads up, good dealer, ASM, at 300 per. At slower double deck, especially with another player, I may be persuaded to make the second best play in order to preserve the additional round. In no event will I make a ridiculous play to preserve a round.

[BoSox]

Suppose you're near the end of the shoe. You get a hand such as 44v4 and the index calls for a split. However, if you split, it's likely that the cut card will appear during the round. If you double, you're likely to get an additional round.

Would you still split, or try to preserve cards so you can play another round at an advantage?

I would split the hand as the index to split is well below the index "evidently you also reached" to double the hand. The split hand is stronger in my opinion under that scenario. Of course, I assume double after a split is allowed. I must admit splitting 44 is like a crap shoot for me considering the TC may be up there but I do not know the composition of the remaining sevens which also applies if I double with the dealer showing a 4.

[BoSox]

Besides possibly ending up with 18 by doubling is nothing to brag about.

[BoSox]

Someone else is likely thinking that the TC is rising and they need to get another round in so they double. If the count was high enough to double there was already a max bet involved, depending on the pen. The possibility is already there to put plenty of more money right on the present hand.

[Joe Mama]

4,4 split vs 4 at index rarely comes up; last time I had it, had max bet out got to double on one of the hands and a stiff on the other -- dealer busted so made 3 max bets.

[angle_sh00ter]

I would split unless i could actually see that there was exactly 3 or 4 cards above the cut card, in which case I would double.

[DSchles]

Suppose you're near the end of the shoe. You get a hand such as 44v4 and the index calls for a split. However, if you split, it's likely that the cut card will appear during the round. If you double, you're likely to get an additional round.

Would you still split, or try to preserve cards so you can play another round at an advantage?

Strictly technically and mathematically, there is a correct way to answer this. But we have to know the true count at the time of the play. Suppose Hi-Lo and TC = +8. Edge is 25% for splitting and 20% for doubling. By doubling, you forfeit 5% of the bet. Then you get another hand for which you have an edge of about ... 4.35%.

So, in this scenario, the right play is to make the right play and split. But it's so close as not to matter.

Don

[Meistro123]

The dealer may end up taking multiple cards, or your estimate might be off. I'd say in the vast majority of cases you are better off making the higher EV play.

[21forme]

Thank you, Don. I was hoping you'd chime in. exactly what I was looking for!