Originally Posted by
Three
You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure. Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results. The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated. I doubt you make any attempt to swing the percentages of quality rounds played in the least amount of time played toward what is best for you. So you have massive exposure and poor quality of rounds played rather than little exposure while getting in more rounds and in particular more quality rounds played for your trip. You probably just go to the casino and plop down at whatever table meets your fancy and play until you leave. That will really hurt the quality of your play.
Read Don's book. I am talking every chapter very slowly. Then think it isn't about using the info for maximizing EV. The information should be used to maximize your effectiveness while minimizing your exposure at the same time. When you figure out how to do this you will produce more EV and have a higher degree of certainty for your results when you play less time. Less time means less exposure. Less exposure means more longevity. More longevity means making more money. So many AP's are focused on the wrong goals and don't maximize their efficiency at making money for the amount of exposure their play produces. Their approach is best for computer play but is shortsighted when it comes to live casino play.
This above-quoted post I believe is important and deserves further discussion specifically on the topic of exposure and length of play. Let's break the post down further as I disagree with much of the above quote. But I do not disagree with the EV concepts.
Originally Posted by
Three
You say you have to play a lot when you make the trip. I have often said I make more money when playing less and described how to make more money with much less exposure.
Three, we are talking about an inconsequential short trip here or did you mean otherwise? Because you like anyone else can have a losing trip "regardless of the amount". When you use the term with much less exposure I believe it does apply to your own unique situation considering you have previously stated:
" And I make sure my bets don't move with the count and I make lots of plays that normal counts don't even have indices for."
Exposure has much less meaning to you as long as you do not get greedy.
Originally Posted by
Three
Some were clueless about how that could be but maybe you are starting to get it. You needed to play a certain number of rounds to get your trip certainty up for your results. The higher the percentage of quality rounds in the mix the higher the EV and the fewer the rounds it takes to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results.
Terms like getting trip certainty results up, and a higher percentage of quality rounds, and the fewer the rounds it takes "on a three-day trip"
to reach a desired degree of certainty for your results and calling others clueless is unbelievable. You seem to be suggesting that he also do some wonging in is that correct? I have no problem with that as I do this myself but with it comes much more possibility of exposure.
Originally Posted by
Three
The casino will tolerate only so much playing time. You need to get the rounds in and don't really care about playing time other than the time needs to be less than their tolerance threshold. Selectively choose your spots for when and where to play to meet all these requirements in the time you are tolerated.
Three, you think for longevity purposes the more hours an unknown to the casino card counter plays during a short visit will likely reach a casino time threshold and be given the boot. An example are you saying that a card counter playing 6 hours of play at 50 hph total 300 hands is more likely to get the boot because the eye saw 6 hours of his play? Versus a comparable card counter playing heads up for 1.5 hours at the same 300 hands played will likely be welcome back to play again? Now the last thing I want to be doing is getting 50 hph "I prefer playing with one other player" and I realize the much larger EV advantage that the heads up player is getting. Although all I see is possibly the 6-hour player getting the boot while still playing and the heads up player getting the boot upon his return visit. Actually, it is, in my opinion, a much easier read to get on the heads up player as it was all gift wrapped and easy to follow when evaluating. Anyone playing heads up fast regardless of session time will be easy to follow what they are doing exception yourself. Evaluating the six-hour player will often be like watching paint dry. Of course, the less time spent in a casino the better, but it really boils down to how much of a threat you are.
Bookmarks