Quote Originally Posted by MJ1 View Post
Don,

How does a responsible team manager give a reliable estimate of the ROI for prospective investors?

The hourly EV and SD are known along with N0, cumulative EV and SD for N0 hours of play, and the expenses associated with N0 hours of play. Additionally, RoR and probability of hitting goal for a set number of rounds is known.

With all that being said, how does one forecast ROI? I'm not sure how RoR factors into the ROI calculation if at all. Is the basic idea simply to tally hourly EV over N0 hours of play, deduct forecasted expenses, take the investor share and then divide it by the amount the investor invested?

For example, if hourly EV is 50 bucks over 200 hours (N0) then that gives $10,000 in gross earnings. Let's say there is $2000 forecasted in expenses which leaves a net win of $8,000. If the investor cut is 50% then they get $4,000. So, their ROI is $4,000/$10,000 = 40%. That is well and good but how does RoR factor into all of this? What if the RoR associated with the venture is 50%. Do you think it is responsible to tell the prospective investor the projected ROI is 40% given the staggering RoR?

Thanks,
MJ
You never said what the investment was until the very end, when you assumed it was $10,000. But you didn't state that upfront. No, I don't think ROR should impact ROI. ROR more properly would influence what the ultimate Sharpe ratio or SCORE would be. Two ROIs can be identical, but one can involve a lot more risk than the other. So risk should be disclosed, but it isn't a component of ROI.

Finally, I agree that, for a team venture with investors, ROR should be so small as to practically be irrelevant.

Don