Ace sequencing

[blackjack_player]

Hi,

if according cvshuffle analyisis, for example, i have 50% of 3 of 3 key cards before ace in last 5 cards, i sit in first base. When last three cards of the last round are three key counts i increase bet and play all other hands BS flat bet. Moreover i modify playing strategy when i suppose next card is an ace (like nexting card).
Suppose i memorize 4 ace sequencing of three key cards in one segment, 50% survive after shuffle according to cvshuffle, at this point i have 3 possible situation:
1) The sequences doesn't appear when i must bet and so i can't increase my bet from flat bet
2) The sequence appears when i must bet , so i increase my bet, ace appears as my first card and so i have 50% edge for that hand
3) The sequence appears when i must bet , so i increase my bet, but ace does not appear as my first card (cause false key cards sequence, other cards interference and so ace go to next players or my error).
So i have 2 ace sequencing for 6 decks survived in mean, this percentage is highly decreased by case 1) and case 3) , moreover i have a slight advantage from nexting card ace table.
In your opinion, can this be a good strategy of betting/playing ace sequencing and there is a way for an EV estimate?

[Stealth]

Not sure I am following your logic or that it is complete. What is meant by 3 of 3 key cards before ace in last 5 cards???

What happens when you get a false sequence? Are you only playing one spot? There are 24 Aces is a 6 deck shoe, what is meant by memorizing four?

As I recall, even the MIT sequence players would play all spots at max bet when they thought the sequence was comingto insure they got the ACE. Typically +/- 3 spots would get it.

Estimating EV is possible but needs much more data. Are you playing with a partner? Should you be counting also? Decks, rules, penetration, table limit, bankroll size and risk tolerance.

[stopgambling]

Do not try this at home . leave it to the expert.

[blackjack_player]

For example,
6 decks play, i memorize 4 ace sequences, three key cards for each one (the three cards before ace), no team play. According to cvshuffle analysys, 50% of sequences survive in mean after shuffle, so 2 sequences in mean.
suppose i sit in first base and i play BS with a minimal unit bet when i don'expect ace is coming and raise bet to x unit when i expect ace is coming according to the key cards.
house edge (with BS)=-0.5% (european, DAS, S17, resplit three times, no ace resplit)
house edge (with BS) removing the two aces of sequences from six decks = -0.82%
player advantage when first card is ace= 52%
so:
EV = x*(2/312)*0.52-x*(z/312)*0.0082-((312-z-2)/312)*0.0082

where 312 is the total of cards in 6 decks
(2/312) frequency that i take an ace belonging to one sequence as first card ( i raised bet to x unit)
(z/312) frequency that i take a false sequence or i don't take ace cause interference of cards (the sequence ace go to other players) (I raised bet to x unit), in this case z represents number of hands that i raised bet but ace didn't come, for example if z=4 means that if i raised bet three times, one time i take an ace of the sequence and two a false sequence or an interference card
(312-z-2) is the frequency that i don't raise the bet cause no sequence is coming

At this point, i need to estimate z:
It depends principally by length of sequences, if i memorize three key cards is more difficult a false sequence then i memorize two key cards.
Then z depends on sitting position because in first base i have more complete information while in second position i have a leak of information of one card, in third sitting of two cards and so on.
Estimate false sequences probability is possible by a simple combinatorics calculation.
While for estimate interference cards a simulator is needed or it's possible with long calculation of conditional probabilty using the probabilty of take m of n key cards in the last r cards (with m < N < r) in the cv-shuffle ace sequencing analyzer.

[Stealth]

Are you playing alone at the table? The type of shuffle is very important in this analysis.

How can you insure you get any of the aces if the table has more players? The ace sequences may come to players after firsst base and you never get to bet. In fact, you have to see key card at the end of a round so that you can bet the X on the next round.

If you are at first base and the first card you get is the first one in an ace sequence then the ace will follow two (maybe or more) cards later, how do you get it?

The practical implementation of this seems to me to destroy the potential ability to steer aces to your hand on any predictable level. Way to many moving parts, or I don't understand the playing environment.

My observation is highly skeptical that this is even close to working on any practical level and solving your EV question would then seem a waste of time.

My advice would be to stop and research Ace sequencing for some guidance.

Sorry, best of luck......