"Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)
Gram
Thanks for posting that link. It was a challenging and interesting article. My son was recently studying for the first Actuary exam (the 'P' exam) and we worked together on the practice exams a lot. We were constantly running into various problems like the ones described in the article. It seems that intuition is very often wrong in the field of probability and it's very easy to make mistakes that are not at all obvious. I suspect that the failure of intuition in the field of probabilities is extremely common and that is why Casinos exist. Time after time, gamblers make mistakes about probabilities that benefit the Casino. Sometimes, the Casinos even make mistakes about the probabilities...
Best,
SiMi
" My friend Zenfighter repeats this same mistake in his "final take" calculation posted on www.bjrnet.com. He derives different values for E1, E2 and E3, but then he simply plugs those values into the formula as restated in McDowell's errata. To present the formula in the best possible light, I want to use the best possible version." ))))
"Don't Cast Your Pearls Before Swine" (Jesus)
What do you mean by your statement? Are you saying ET Fan has made many false statements? If so like what?
Years ago ET Fan posted a lot on BJ21. I believe he was from WI. We shared some private emails. I don't remember seeing any posts from him in many years now. I do remember he didn't believe me when I mentioned the pen at one WI casino. He went to check it out for himself. He became a believer. I also remember him posting about an 86 from a WI Indian casino. It was kind of funny, if I remember correctly, as he went and used the bathroom first and then got a drink before they escorted him out. I don't think I ever went to that WI casino again after reading his story.
Anyway, I always liked ET Fan and was impressed with his blackjack knowledge.
Last edited by Midwest Player; 10-27-2018 at 11:44 PM.
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ETF wrote an article on simulation with dozens of false statements. It was long posted at Arnold's site. Eventually, Arnold removed or corrected the statements. He also made innumerable attack posts during the Fight Club era.
Last edited by Norm; 10-28-2018 at 05:19 AM.
"I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse
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