Right, there are tables in the appendix of Professional Blackjack.
Buying surrender and double for less are practical, thanks for the reminder!
Failing to double on 9v5, split 9s, and all the standing/hitting are not practical to involve in my opinion. If you involve, you're hurting the ploppy's EV in some way.
Moreover, I can't find a single example how selling my hand can be profitable if the ploppy does't overpay me.
Is there any situation that, a ploppy wants to hit a 11v6, you pay him twice his bet, garantee him a win and takeover the hand, then you double the hand and it still worth it? The TC must be very high that double on 11v6 is >1.000 EV.
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Splitting 9s can’t hurt ploppy EV whenIt’s the correct Strategy to split. So is doubling 9v5 (unless count is negative enough to not call for it, but then, why would you double on that in that case)
Also , There’s no such thing as hurting ploppy EV if the ploppy doesn’t know about it. 21for me is selling his 16 vT!!!
11 v 6 is a hand every ploppy knew to double. And if you pay ploppy double his bet, the maximum you can win on that hand is also double the bet.how can it be +EV ????
Selling your losing hand is obviously profitable. You get your original bet back instead of playing a hand with -ev.
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6 decks, S17, Das game.
9,9v6, splitting EV=.439
9,9v6, standing EV=.281
Single 9v6, optimal play(hitting or double) EV=.218
If a ploppy wants to stay on 9,9v6, which is a common mistake, the only way to get yourself involved is to persuade him to split with you. You put down the wager, buy a 9 from him, break his hard 18.
The ploppy's EV decreased by .281-.218=.063, and you bought an extremely lucrative hand with .218 EV, 21.8% return on wager!
Most ploppies would intuitively think 18 is a better hand than 9, so they won't sell it. Only those who are really dumb would think a single 9(you can't double it!) is better than 18. I can think of another situation that someone is extremely loyal to basic strategy and he has to do it according to the book, but he doesn't have enough chips to make the split, so he asks for your help In this case, help him sincerely.
For doubling 9v5, if the ploppy wants to hit, then you propose to double with your own wager, and you account for half the total win, the ploppy's EV is surely damaged. Imagine you received a 2 for the double, then the ploppy can't hit his 11 again! An argument is about to take place..
6 decks, S17 game.
11v6, double down EV=.678 for a fresh shoe.
The EV is not over 1.000, so pay twice the price to buy the bet is not worth it.
But when the TC becomes very high, lots of high cards in the shoe, double 11v6 is highly likely to win, then it can be >1.000 EV and thus worth twice the price of the original bet.
So my question is, where to find the decision EV table for every TC?
Last edited by San Jose Bella; 10-20-2018 at 05:26 PM.
Poor choice of words on my part, but the logic is pretty simple. The typical ploppy next to you, about to surrender 100 consecutive $10 hands, allows you to buy them for the surrender price. You’ve just invested $500 for $1000 of face value.
For each hand you win, you retain $10 bet, win $10, equaling $20, less your investment of $5 per hand for a net win $15 per hand.
For each hand you tie, you retain the $10 bet, less your investment of $5 per hand, for a net win of $5 per hand.
For each hand you lose, your net loss is your investment of $5 per hand.
Your break even is that combination of wins and ties sufficient to recoup your investment of $500. It’s easy enough to put a table together, but to make it simple, winning 25% of the hands, tying none, recoups your investment. They’re arguments here on both side of the fence.
Our ploppy naturally, plays substandard, and surrenders many hands that he shouldn’t. You, of course, are an expert on index play, and your play all style will lead you to the best play, wheather pass or hit. Both of these issues will increase your edge.
If the ploppy is ploppy solid, your edge is low. If the ploppy is ploppy lousy, your edge increases.
Regardless, buying surrenders and insurance bets are risky heat attraction plays. I much prefer being invited to participate in doubles etc.
@sanjosebella
There’s no such thing as hurting ploppy ev if the ploppy doesn’t know about it.
Sometimes they invite you to hurt their ev.
Ev of doubling 11 v 6 can’t be worth more than 2x when the max you can win is also 2x bet size.
There are dispute risks to doubles indeed. Do it at your own risk and avoid the soft doubles.
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