very depressing variance, what are the odds?

[hwjman]

so i have been playing this game in some casino in asia for a month now. the HE is really good.

4D
S17
RSA
DAS
LS
50%
$1-$500

there is absolutely no heat at all. i have been playing $1 x2hands, spreading $50x2, $75x2, $100x2...up to $500x2.

i won $12500 for the first 2 weeks then lost $13000 in last 2 weeks. since this was in a private casino, i feel like they cheated. it was so weird that the first 2 weeks i was on winning streak every day then all of sudden, the game is changed and i could only won 2 days out of last 14 days. it took me about 7000 rounds to win the first $12500 and then 5000 rounds to lose the $13000. what are the chances though? do you guys think they cheated or is this just one of the million variance?

edit: i used zen count with full indices.

[stopgambling]

you have no idea of what variance means . you only had about 125 hours of play if i read your post right . you have not mention your spread and count system and bet ramp .

[hwjman]

you have no idea of what variance means . you only had about 125 hours of play if i read your post right . you have not mention your spread and count system and bet ramp .

TC=1 $1 x 2hands
TC=2 $50 x 2hands
TC=3 $75 x 2hands
TC=4 $100 x 2hands

increase the bet by $25 up to $500 x 2hands.

i used zen with full indices.

[Freightman]

TC=1 $1 x 2hands
TC=2 $50 x 2hands
TC=3 $75 x 2hands
TC=4 $100 x 2hands

increase the bet by $25 up to $500 x 2hands.

i used zen with full indices.

If your tc 4 is 2x100, and your max is 2-500, I guarantee you that your spread is fucked up, and you’re getting clobbered with occasional bets above +4.

Get cvcx, plug in the variables, and fix your problem.

[Three]

You have played an insignificant amount of time to make any conclusions, but the swings sound normal. If you think you are being cheated don't play there. Do you have any reason to suspect cheating besides the fact that you don't understand the normal ebb and flow of your BR when playing a 100:1 spread?

[Freightman]

You have played an insignificant amount of time to make any conclusions, but the swings sound normal. If you think you are being cheated don't play there. Do you have any reason to suspect cheating besides the fact that you don't understand the normal ebb and flow of your BR when playing a 100:1 spread?

I almost suspect that tc 4 is 2x100, and tc 5 is 2x250 or 2x500. His problem is fixable.

[hwjman]

I almost suspect that tc 4 is 2x100, and tc 5 is 2x250 or 2x500. His problem is fixable.

sorry, let me clairfy this here.

as the tc increases by 1, i raised my bet by $25 on each hand.

here is the full chart.

TC=1 $1 x 2hands
TC=2 $50 x 2hands
TC=3 $75 x 2hands
TC=4 $100 x 2hands
TC=5 $125 x 2hands
TC=6 $150 x 2hands
TC=7 $175 x 2hands
TC=8 $200 x 2hands
TC=9 $225 x 2hands
TC=10 $250 x 2hands
TC=11 $275 x 2hands
TC=12 $300 x 2hands
TC=13 $325 x 2hands
TC=14 $350 x 2hands
TC=15 $375 x 2hands
TC=16 $400 x 2hands
TC=17 $425 x 2hands
TC=18 $450 x 2hands
TC=19 $475 x 2hands
TC=20 $500 x 2hands

[Freightman]

So, with 50% pen on a 4 deck game, You’re really getting tc 20?

Firstly, your tc 1 bet is way to low, and should be reserved for off the top and negative counts. Second your strategy of adding 25 per true count is flawed, especially at plus 2,3 and 4. Third, I question your frequency if bets that would allow for 400 and 500 bets based on your schedule and 50% pen.

I don’t know your bankroll, but you should$ re-evaluate your strategies. Further, if yo7 really believe the casino is cheating, which is questionable, quit playing.

[hwjman]

So, with 50% pen on a 4 deck game, You’re really getting tc 20?

Firstly, your tc 1 bet is way to low, and should be reserved for off the top and negative counts. Second your strategy of adding 25 per true count is flawed, especially at plus 2,3 and 4. Third, I question your frequency if bets that would allow for 400 and 500 bets based on your schedule and 50% pen.

I don’t know your bankroll, but you should$ re-evaluate your strategies. Further, if yo7 really believe the casino is cheating, which is questionable, quit playing.

so how should my bet look like? i came up with this bet size because their max bet is $500 and i wanted to spread to 20. during the 12000 hands, the max tc ive seen was 16 and that happened only once. i just planned this to spread 1 to 20. so you are saying i should increase my bet at TC1?

[Meistro123]

so you have broke even? I probably wouldn't play in a "private" casino.

[Ryemo]

1) That’s not a 1 to 20 spread... If you ever get to put out 2x500, then that’s like a 1 to 500 spread.

2) Considering you're betting 2x200/250 around TC 9/10 Zen Count, your fluctuations are normal.

3) Have no idea what your bankroll is or what RoR you’re comfortable with, so without that info, it’s hard to say what your “ideal” max bet should be.

4) Your “real max bet” is going to be put out around TC 8 or 9 for Zen. Anything above TC 9, I would probably consider it a “super max.”

[Bigdaddy]

I'm not a Zen expert, but since it is a level-2 count, I would think that the first advantage would occur at TC +3 or 4. So you might be raising your bet prematurely.

[Ryemo]

I'm not a Zen expert, but since it is a level-2 count, I would think that the first advantage would occur at TC +3 or 4. So you might be raising your bet prematurely.

Depends on the game. Each TC is worth approximately .33%. So if you’re playing a DD game that has H17, DAS, then you’ll have a small edge at +2. But if you’re playing a 6D shoe with H17, DAS, and no RSA, then you won’t have an edge until +3. So as you can see, it’s circumstantial.