Thanks Three. I do understand everything you said. I don’t press my bet by 50% on each win. I go up $25 each time I win. When I get up to $200 I may go $50 then $25 rotating back and forth until I loose. If I don’t get any doubles or splits and I finally loose a hand I make way more money on the run than people that I see just flat betting. I must have horrible luck because even if I just flat bet or even if I did learn to count and the count was high you tell me what card counter is not going to double an 11 with a dealer showing a 6 no matter how much money they have out there. I get 2s, 3s and 4s and the dealer never seems to break. I doubled one night over 60-70 times. With my 9, 10s or 11s I received a 10 maybe 8 times, won only 5 of those and maybe only won another 7 or 8 of them. I win because I catch runs throughout my sessions that dont require any doubles or splits until I finally loose my biggest bet. For example, one night I was playing at a $100 table and pressed $100 on every single win up to $1000 and then went $100 and then $200 alternating until I was at $2000 then went $300 then $200 then $300 then $200. I was up to $3000 when I finally lost. I had one double down in the whole run $1200 and $1200 and won. Then received a BJ on a $2000 bet and then received another BJ right back on $2300. It resulted in about a $13,000 win. If BJ had no doubling or splitting I would probably win more money while spending less time playing. I understand that my advantage is to double down and if I was counting and the count was high I should be but having an 11 and a dealer showing a 6 and hardly ever winning them doesn’t make a difference because if I was counting I would of raised my bet. Any counter or novice player is going to double down in that situation. And my girlfriend watches me play and is in amazement of how I could possibly loose almost every one that I do. You would think after awhile that the count would be high and I would catch some but I must be very unlucky. I might as well play baccarat or odd/even on roulette and pick a side and when my runs come take my wins. Loosing most of my doubles makes the game very I enjoyable. I watch everyone else at my table winning a higher % while I loose them. One night I played I actually caught some and with my progression system I won over $4000. I have won a lot playing this way but I have to hope I don’t loose any doubles or splits when I’m pressing. Sounds crazy but this is what happens.
The point is you lose your top bet double and lose all your winnings if you press too fast. You complained about that but when the realization is made that you need to press slower because of the nature of BJ you say you press slow enough already.
This illustrates my point that your biggest bets when progression betting will be made when you have a disadvantage and doubling would either not be done if you were counting or you would know it is a weak double and you might want to just hit because of your betting style.
When progression betting without any knowledge of the deck composition suggested advantage or disadvantage You long run results will approach you total bet times the house advantage which is a negative number. You could make those same bets in any order and have the same expected outcome. All progression betting does is change the ride to the expected long run destination of losing a certain percentage of the total amount you have bet. You are seeing the ride to that long run lose using your betting technique.
You are expecing to lose your total amount bet times the house edge since your bets are made with no knowledge of the advantage or disadvantage at the moment it is made. In the long run each bet size amount will be made with an average disadvantage equal to the HE if the system creates no bias vet size correlation to the changing advantage. Since longer streaks, whether winning or losing streaks occur more in disadvantage situations you are creating a bias for a larger house advantage when you have your big bets out.
Luck comes and goes. People have selective memories. You are probably remembering your big bets results more than other results. You system would tend to have worse results for big bet doubles than the average player.
ll you have to do is press more slowly so you still have a nice win when you lose a top bet double. Counting a strong playing count and making index plays on those doubles would help you not double when it is a bad idea when basic strategy tells you to double.
Thanks for the info. I know that my post sounds like a rant but trust me, I understand that if your not counting your gambling. Also trust me when I tell you that I am not remembering the big doubles I lost only. I can’t tell you one weekend where I was winning a majority of them. I understand that if I was counting and I had a big bet up and the count was low a counter still doesn’t double an 11 I to a 6 for example. And if the count was high you still would. I know a lot of counters and they still loose sometimes. I also think pressing my bet $25 after each win is going pretty slow. I usually always win money on my runs even if I loose a big double but think about how my times my runs go up and halfway back down because I loose most of my doubles. If a counter sat next to me and said the count is high I bet you I would still loose because being that I don’t count you have to figure that every time I double the count has to be high sometimes. I don’t know it because I’m not counting but I still loose. Do you know how frustrating it is to have an 11 against low cards and hardly ever receiving a 10. I know that even if you get a low card the dealer may still be in position to break but my luck is horrible with doubling. Being that I’m not a counter if there are any other suggestions please let me know.
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