Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

[Three]

P.S- Philadelphia Eagles better allow people who is watching the game (including me) to enjoy the game and stop throwing soda cans or spitting on their opponents. I will kill anybody that is going to start anything this year!

Philly is a very hostile environment for opposing fans. Seriously you could get hurt very bad or worse. Just be like a spy and blend in. If you inadvertently cheer say you have that guy on your fantasy football team but act like you are rooting for the Eagles. Think of it like your AP act in a casino. You want to have your enjoyment and get out unscathed.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

my friend: you said some of the bets you made the line moved in your favor.
then you posted 5 bets in which the lines all moved in your favor, by a lot in 3 of them.
it looks like you didn't post the games where the lines didn't move in your favor or moved against you.
16 games in week 1.
I'm not saying that you bet all of them.
but many who bet that early (July 4) do.
if you bet many others then in those 5 your results are likely to be better than in the others.
the bets that you posted here are not useful to anybody because those lines are no longer available.
unless you were trying to show that you are able to predict line movements.
and you have not shown that.
if you would like to show the bjtf community that you can predict line movements then you can post your picks for Week 2 on Tuesday morning when the early lines come out.
Good Luck.


btw: for those who may not know. if a person correctly predicts a line movement or spots a significant difference in the lines between 2 different books they can then "middle" the game which is potentially advantageous although statistics for what the edge may be or how to calculate or if it even exists at all is not an easy thing to prove.


http://grantland.com/the-triangle/vi...on-an-nfl-bet/

I went to Reno July 4 to make RSW total bets. THOSE are the big bets. But you are completely wrong; anyone who is betting week 1 NFL two months early is most definitely NOT betting every game on the board. The only people who bet every game on the board are squares and/or degenerates. I never have to bet.

The reason I like to make them that early is the line moves don't really start until exhibition season starts. But for anyone who REALLY follows the NFL, all these moves were not difficult to see. Buffalo was a fraudulent playoff team last year; Cleveland probably should've won 5 games last year but had a QB that was a turnover machine; you take the Buffalo QB (Taylor) from last year and put him on Cleveland, guess what: Cleveland is now better than Buffalo. Chicago has had more starter games lost to injury in 2016-2017 than any other team. Injuries are random and tend to even out. Chicago also had a rookie QB with basically NO receiving weapons last year and they addressed that problem in free agency. Denver had the single most difficult schedule in 2017 and had horrific QB play and they have solidly upgraded at that position. I also really like that first rounder they took and they will always have a strong HFA playing at one mile altitude. Divisional opponents are used to it but Seattle is not. As for tonight, Atlanta is good. Very good. They should've won the Super Bowl a year and a half ago, and probably should've beaten the Eagles in the playoffs last year. The offense struggled a bit getting used to Sarkasian as OC but in the second year they should improve. They are loaded with weapons so no excuses.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

that's fine my friend. I accept your answer.
I'm sure everybody here would like to see more of your predictions hopefully for week 2.
Good Luck.

I will be back but doubt much for week 2. Notice I didn't bet any totals. The new rules re: tackling could have a big impact. But we will see re: how some of those teams I like in week 1 perform. If they do well, I wouldn't rule out coming back with some of them in week 2. The value windows don't last long. If the linemaker doesn't react quick enough, the sharps will do it for them.

[refinery]

No one can follow you if you don't post the lines

[DoubleDownSoft21]

No one can follow you if you don't post the lines

Falcons +4.5
Baltimore -4.5
Denver -2
Cleveland +6.5
Chicago +8.5

All bets placed at the Silver Legacy (William Hill book) in Reno July 4th.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

nice calls dude. you went 4-1. impressive. Sharky had a nice win too. I tanked.


I've decided that I can't pick NFL games with success. It's not in my DNA. I'm better in other sports.
So I've decided to cheat.
I'm using thespread.com to see where the early money is bet and I'm going to bet with the early money which comes from, I believe, mostly sharps. I get the early line before it moves against me, although it's possible I would get a better deal by waiting. Believe time is on my side. Late news such as injuries that I can't use is zero sum - could help me or hurt - equally possible.


week 2 - Green Bay - 1.5 over minnesota (william hill right now)

Thanks Drunk. I actually tried to middle the Falcons/Eagles game (posted earlier) so it actually cancelled out the loss. But if we are tracking, I will accept the loss there. Had a real good feeling on some weak 2017 teams showing improvement.

Re: the Packers next week, be very,very careful. If you watched that game last night, it was an incredible comeback by GB to pull out a win that seemed like a certain loss. Rodgers has to be in tremendous pain today. The adrenaline and cortisone has wore off. It was an ugly injury. I can't remember seeing a player taken off on a cart only to return later in the game. I also think Chicago lost it more than GB won it. The Bears figured the game was won and went very conservative. I also think their energy expediture from the first half cost them in the second half. Just look at Mack; he had an amazing first half but was barely heard from in the second half. He was gassed.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

.................................................. ..




If Foles brings his A game the Falcons are toast.
Foles is not a typical second stringer.
He's put up some fabulous numbers for Philly in some of his games with them.
Yes, he's also been erratic.
A game - great - B game - mediocre or sub par.

Foles had a great run his first year when Kelly coached Philly and a great run in last year's postseason. In between those periods, he was subpar to poor. He's probably better than he showed during the dismal years but last season's playoff run was an outlier from him. He's still a downgrade from Wentz by about 3 points to the team power rating.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

Sharky,

I'm actually not against you on this one. I thought I had bet it in Reno but didn't. I've had time to get the Giants +3 but that is gone. Can't bet them at +2.5. The one thing that kept me off the game is Coughlin. Normally non-conference road teams are playing low priority games. I suspect Coughlin's presence in the Jags front office will mean this isn't just another run of the mill non conference road game. Not that I'm taking Jax, either. Going to sit it out. 7 minutes til gametime.

[seriousplayer]

Philadelphia Eagles need to borrow from New England Patriot's playbook to beat the Atlantic Falcons:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...tlanta-falcons

[Three]

Philadelphia Eagles need to borrow from New England Patriot's playbook to beat the Atlantic Falcons:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/2...tlanta-falcons

The article said Philly used a version of the old "Philly Philly" play to beat the Falcons. And said the Patriots borrowed it from Philly in the SB.

[seriousplayer]

The article said Philly used a version of the old "Philly Philly" play to beat the Falcons. And said the Patriots borrowed it from Philly in the SB.

Yes, I reread the article and read it wrong the first time. I acknowledge that is it a mistake.

[DoubleDownSoft21]

4-1 in week 1. I am on three plays this week:

Miami/NY Jets Under 43
Pittsburgh -4
NY Giants +3

[Bigdaddy]

4-1 in week 1. I am on three plays this week:

Miami/NY Jets Under 43
Pittsburgh -4
NY Giants +3

Steelers -4? I hope it happens (I'm a "younser" from way back). But you must be relying on the Steeler's ownership history of the Chiefs. Certainly the Steelers play in week 1 doesn't inspire me. Steelers are perennial slow starters.