Sharky's NFL 2018 play-o-the-weak

**refinery** · 10-01-2018, 10:14 AM

Originally Posted by Eye of the Eagle

38 to 7 BLOWOUT. Who would of thought that?

Not Three

**DoubleDownSoft21** · 10-01-2018, 12:00 PM

Originally Posted by drunk

everybody who bets sports gets their ass kicked sometimes. everybody. no exceptions.

get real cocky and for sure you will sooner or later be humbled. the hope is to get up in the long run. some of the short runs can be painful.

recently NBC televised a big horse racing event.
they had an "expert" there making several bets on every single race
I listened to the guy and I can't deny that he was knowledgeable and I can't criticize the bets he made.

IIRC there were 12 races on the card.
he lost every single bet in every single race. in front of a few million people. ouch.

No question about it; nobody is going to hit 60% in the long run. But one only needs to hit 52% and change to break even, which isn't as simple as it sounds, but certainly isn't impossible. The margins are tough; its a grind. I must admit learning to count cards helped better educate me about variance in sports betting.

**seriousplayer** · 10-01-2018, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by drunk

get real cocky and for sure you will sooner or later be humbled.

Why does it take you to be real cocky to be humbled?? Why can't someone just be humble without being cocky and I have seen it before.

**DoubleDownSoft21** · 10-01-2018, 02:05 PM

Originally Posted by seriousplayer

Why does it take you to be real cocky to be humbled?? Why can't someone just be humble without being cocky and I have seen it before.

I don't believe he was speaking about himself, per se, but anyone who bets sports. He is 100% correct. Most who bet sports don't have a great understanding of variance and when they do go on a good run, have a tendency to believe they are better than they are. I know, I've done that earlier in my own betting career.