Reaching My Goal This Year Looks Doubtful

**Midwest Player** · 09-01-2018, 11:49 PM

The year is already 75% over and I'm only at 66% of my goal. I will have only about three more months to play this year and that assumes nothing out of ordinary happens. I pretty much avoid playing in Dec Jan & Feb due to bad winter conditions. So realistically I can maybe get in 6 more blackjack trips.

In order for me to reach my goal I would need to win as much as I did on my last trip for the next six trips and that assumes I don't have any losing trips which is pretty unlikely. Yeah, its possible, but kind of unlikely. However, if I look at 9 months as my playing year then I still have 3 more months to play and the year is only 66% over and I'm right on track to my goal, but it still seems unlikely.

Strange thing is I actually hit my goal last year in July. It sure is different this year. I do think it is possible I still could end up with a losing year, but sure hope that doesn't happen.

Anyway, I only need 15 more hours of playing time to exceed last years playing time. Since a trip is anywhere from 12 to 20 hours of playing time this should be achieved in the next two trips.

**San Jose Bella** · 09-02-2018, 05:45 AM

Do you prefer to go to the casino on Monday(not crowded), Friday(medium crowded), or Saturday(most crowded)?

**Joe Mama** · 09-02-2018, 07:53 AM

I would say you are right on target since you only play 9 months of the year -- you've played 6 of the 9 so far (66.67%).

**Midwest Player** · 09-02-2018, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by San Jose Bella

Do you prefer to go to the casino on Monday(not crowded), Friday(medium crowded), or Saturday(most crowded)?

Oh, no question about it. I much prefer a weekday than a weekend, but due to appointments and other commitments that is not always possible. Playing conditions are always better on a weekday.

So just for the fun of it, I decided to look at my stats for this year of weekday vs weekend. I know it is a pretty small sample, but it would be too much work to look at any more years. Here are the stats: 62% of my playing hours were on a weekday, 36% on a Friday, and 2% on a Saturday. 80% of my losing sessions occurred on a weekday and 20% on a Friday. (only 5 losing days this year).

However, on an hourly basis my win was $9.75 more per hour on a weekday than a Friday, and $26.22 more per hour on a weekday than a Saturday.

**Freightman** · 09-02-2018, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Oh, no question about it. I much prefer a weekday than a weekend, but due to appointments and other commitments that is not always possible. Playing conditions are always better on a weekday.

So just for the fun of it, I decided to look at my stats for this year of weekday vs weekend. I know it is a pretty small sample, but it would be too much work to look at any more years. Here are the stats: 62% of my playing hours were on a weekday, 36% on a Friday, and 2% on a Saturday. 80% of my losing sessions occurred on a weekday and 20% on a Friday. (only 5 losing days this year).

However, on an hourly basis my win was $9.75 more per hour on a weekday than a Friday, and $26.22 more per hour on a weekday than a Saturday.

Sounds like possibly more heads up play - definitely more hands per hour.

**Canceler** · 09-02-2018, 12:29 PM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

Strange thing is I actually hit my goal last year in July.

At the time, did you think this was to be expected because you’re not only an excellent blackjack player, but a wonderful human being in general?

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

However, if I look at 9 months as my playing year then I still have 3 more months to play and the year is only 66% over and I'm right on track to my goal, but it still seems unlikely.

And now this year you are “only” right on target, but felt the need to start a thread to complain about it. Yes, life is so unfair!

**Ryemo** · 09-02-2018, 01:29 PM

You never know MWP.

Last year I had the most insane surge of positive variance in the last two months of the year. In November 2017, I made 40% of my year’s annual earnings in an 12 day trip (50 hrs of play) and 50% between Nov/Dec combined.

Unfortunately, there’s absolutely no way of timing this kind of stuff. But for me last year, it was very fitting because I had just ended a 300 hr losing streak, so that big surge at the end was very much needed.

**Midwest Player** · 09-02-2018, 02:30 PM

Originally Posted by Ryemo

You never know MWP.

Last year I had the most insane surge of positive variance in the last two months of the year. In November 2017, I made 40% of my year’s annual earnings in an 12 day trip (50 hrs of play) and 50% between Nov/Dec combined.

Unfortunately, there’s absolutely no way of timing this kind of stuff. But for me last year, it was very fitting because I had just ended a 300 hr losing streak, so that big surge at the end was very much needed.

So very true. Nothing is a sure thing with blackjack. Around the middle of Nov 2010 after having probably my worst ever trip to Wendover I found myself down for the year over $4,100 and this is a huge amount for mostly a red chipper. I would actually play blackjack on eight more days that year and win on every one of those days. I ended the year $407 in the black.

Another year on Aug 10th I was up over $4,200 and then things went bad at the end of the year. I lost on 8 out of the last 12 times I played that year and ended the year up only $396. So yes, I surely do know how terrible these swings can be.

**San Jose Bella** · 09-02-2018, 03:12 PM

Interesting, I thought on a weekday when not many people in the casino, casino pay more attention to individual patrons, so there's more heat, more likely to be remembered.
I always prefer Friday, Saturday is too crowded to find a heads up game.

**21forme** · 09-02-2018, 08:25 PM

Originally Posted by Midwest Player

I know it is a pretty small sample,

This sums up your entire post.

For the amount of hours you put in, I don't understand how you can expect to be close to EV. While it may happen, anything could.

**Midwest Player** · 09-02-2018, 10:06 PM

Originally Posted by 21forme

This sums up your entire post.

For the amount of hours you put in, I don't understand how you can expect to be close to EV. While it may happen, anything could.

The original purpose of my post was to show how my weekday playing compares with weekend playing. It wasn't to show if I was close to expected value or not. I knew the sample size was small so I decided to look at one more year, that year being 2017. Now 2017 was an exceptional good year for me. I only played 31 times, but again weekday play was even better in 2017 than this year even though my biggest win for 2017 occurred on a Friday.

Here are the stats for 2017: 65% of my playing hours were on a weekday, 35% were on a Fri. Sat. or Sun. (1 time on Sat & 1 on Sun rest Fri). My win per hour on a weekday was $30.81 more per hour than on a weekend day. I had 7 losing days in 2017 and 4 were on a weekday and 3 on a weekend day. I played in 3 different states in 2017.

**ZeeBabar** · 09-04-2018, 03:08 PM

MWP, I am happy for you. You can also look at it as another winning year, regardless. In one of earlier threads on where to play DD games, someone had provided a very good trip itenerary and I am checking into that trip if possible.

**Midwest Player** · 09-04-2018, 07:57 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

MWP, I am happy for you. You can also look at it as another winning year, regardless. In one of earlier threads on where to play DD games, someone had provided a very good trip itenerary and I am checking into that trip if possible.

Zee, that someone was me. I posted about a DD Midwest trip.