New recreational player question

**BoSox** · 09-01-2018, 02:25 AM

Originally Posted by billcarson

Part of me wants to go all in and play unrated and do quick sessions with bigger spreads and climb the ranks of the few who have really made a successful venture into card counting. However, I become fearful that this type of play may not be feasible in the long run, being only in my 30's and making numerous trips to Vegas where I get to bond with family and friends, it would be detrimental to get banned from these properties.

For those who have taken the time to read all this, what would you do? If you were in my shoes, just starting out, how would you approach the game and what would you have done differently knowing what you know now? Thanks again. I really appreciate all the info.

It is very obvious you want to keep your name clean and be welcomed back. Use shorter sessions and grind them to death on a rotation system.

**billcarson** · 09-01-2018, 04:07 AM

Thanks bosox, I think I’ll utilize that approach. I look forward to posting some progress updates.

**jimmybond007** · 09-01-2018, 05:35 AM

A score of 17 is terrible. Meaning your N0 is extremely high and you will take ages to ever get to the long run especially if you are just playing part time and recreational . If your comps and stuff are that important to you then I would consider a more comp hustle approach and just try to work the system. While the game you listed has great rules, and ok penetration the 1-6 or 1-8 spread simply is not enough to really "beat" the game. The winrate of 16$/hr is just peanuts for the amount of variance you would be taking on.

I would either plan on hitting the ground harder or not at all. That low score assures you will take on a butt load of variance and you will have very low certainty of showing any profits anywhere in the near future..

**billcarson** · 09-01-2018, 06:27 AM

Thanks jimmy. Given the circumstances I have outlined, what is a good target score I should be trying to achieve? I don’t think I can get above mid 20’s without my risk of ruin becoming unreasonable.

**Jabberwocky** · 09-01-2018, 06:53 AM

Originally Posted by worshipful21master

Sorry half blind tonight...It would take about five hundred straight hands to in teach yourself teaching seeing patterns and most all basic strategy plays except when at a double advantage.

Are you related to Jerry Patterson by chance?

**Jabberwocky** · 09-01-2018, 07:01 AM

If your bankroll is anemic, why worry about ror?
On a bank of $10k, your top bet should be no more than $75. And with 100 hands per hour, that will deliver about $17/HR.

**stopgambling** · 09-01-2018, 07:26 AM

Originally Posted by Jabberwocky

Said the spider to the flea.

nice! i always treat you with respect but can't say the same . i wish people here learn how to communicate instead of showing their big ego.

**BoSox** · 09-01-2018, 07:32 AM

billcarson, you can keep your risk of ruin the same by playing two hands when a larger bet is called for and betting 73% on each hand of what your normal one hand bet would be. This will accomplish getting more money on the table with the same risk of ruin. I would reserve going to two hands when the TC only reaches +3 and above "remember shorter sessions" as you have that all important LS option available to you. Speaking of LS when you have a hard 16 it is nice to know, but you must know the more valuable numbers for LS when you have a hard 15 against 9, 10, Ace up, and 14 against a ten up.

You mentioned that you wong out frequently but do you ever occasionally wong in? Conditions have to be just right to do this once in a while but take advantage when the conditions are right. This occurs when other people are standing behind multi able tables, they may be friends of players or possibly onlookers, that is a good time to blend in and back count. You also mentioned that you only use around 16 index plays, I do not consider that as enough. I hope all those 16 index plays you do know are at least taken from Don S, I18, Fab 4?

**Jabberwocky** · 09-01-2018, 07:53 AM

Originally Posted by stopgambling

nice! i always treat you with respect but can't say the same . i wish people here learn how to communicate instead of showing their big ego.

My response was directed to no one in particular, if that means anything And was not a personal attack. I mean, after all, I'm merely an AP wannabe.

**jimmybond007** · 09-01-2018, 09:35 AM

Originally Posted by billcarson

Thanks jimmy. Given the circumstances I have outlined, what is a good target score I should be trying to achieve? I don’t think I can get above mid 20’s without my risk of ruin becoming unreasonable.

You did not mention bankroll size or anything. I like to at least have a C-score of 50 to play a game, there are many factors to consider when game selecting but 50 is a good benchmark providing a reasonable N0. You mentioned 25$ min, you could drop down to a lower table limit and the EV, SCORE and RoR will get better all while keeping the top bet the same... sadly those rules will disappear by leaving the 25$ min I am suspecting.

It's a matter of what your goals are. You posted that you are only going to play a few times a year and are just trying to reduce losses and become a better player. Unfortunately playing so sparingly you may end up losing your money faster. For example say on one of your trips you have some horrid variance and are stuck and have wiped out a good portion of your bankroll and your ROR increases at that point.. You play so few hands overall throughout the year you may never recoup those losses. Its all about getting hands in and it takes lots of them for your results to even come anywhere close to expectation. You undoubtedly know how the casino edge will grind your bankroll down slowly over time but it may be a pretty large risk to try and count and win as the few hands you will be playing your results are going to be determined more by just variance over anything else...

playing at such a low score and relatively small EV compared the stakes played. You are essentially playing a break even game and are more or less flipping with the house on where your results will end up. If you tip at all it really hurts as well as your projected EV is low and even just dollar tokes are eating huge percentages of your EV.

A suggestion might be to for your comps at where you want to stay, there are many low cost ways to try and achieve this.... then take your card counting to the lower limit off strip properties like low min DD games.

**billcarson** · 09-01-2018, 10:28 AM

Yeah I actually use 12 of the I18 plays. I omit the splitting of tens and ignore the negative index plays since I wong out usually before they come into play. I also have 5 surrender index plays on top of the standard 4 of basic strategy. With the surrender option and plays, I’m probably only using 9 of the I18.

With the right conditions I attempt to Wong in of course. I just look at that as a bonus opportunity if it’s feasible.

**BoSox** · 09-01-2018, 10:53 AM

Originally Posted by billcarson

Yeah I actually use 12 of the I18 plays. I omit the splitting of tens and ignore the negative index plays since I wong out usually before they come into play.

A key word in your quote is when you said "usually" which you should understand that you could start a hand in a neutral count and depending on the # of players as well as cards left in the shoe at times you will be facing a negative count when it is your turn to play. Besides you cannot wong out every time you see a negative TC of one, that would look ridiculous. Because of these reasons, you need to learn the negative numbers in the I18, don't be lazy.