Count reluctant to go positive

[Three]

Haha.
Just got back from a quick trip to the meadows with the wife tonight. Played a half shoe. Running count varied between -5 to -10. Me and 2 other players. I think I played 12 hands. Had a blackjack. 2 or 3 hands I split and one I had a double opportunity. Under 10 minutes of playing time. Made $50 and quit.

If all the cards are in the shoe and there is a negative count, different cut card placement would have about the same magnitude positive count.

[Midwest Player]

Under 10 minutes of playing time.

Why would anyone go through all the trouble of making a trip to the casino and only play 10 minutes. I'm not even warmed up yet in that amount of time.

[Bogusjack]

Also tonight this happened within that half shoe I played.

At about the half deck area of the beginning of shoe I was dealt a pair of 8’s against a dealer 10. RC -5. I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them. Dealer gives me a 4 and another 8. RC is now -4. I split the 8’s of the second hand. I am dealt 2 more 8’s. Since their rules limit splits to a max of 3 hands I now have a 12 a 16 and a 16. RC-4. I hit on the 12 and it’s a 9 for a 21. Sweet. I hit the 16. Busted out with a 10. RC -5. I surrender the next 16 since I just felt like a bust was coming. As it turned out I was right. It was a 6 since the next player hit on her hand.

Talk about a run of the same card - 5 8’s within the first 25 cards of a six deck shoe.

[Bogusjack]

It’s only a few minutes from my house and my wife and I just wanted to make it a quick trip.

[DSchles]

Also tonight this happened within that half shoe I played.

At about the half deck area of the beginning of shoe I was dealt a pair of 8’s against a dealer 10. RC -5. I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them. Dealer gives me a 4 and another 8. RC is now -4. I split the 8’s of the second hand. I am dealt 2 more 8’s. Since their rules limit splits to a max of 3 hands I now have a 12 a 16 and a 16. RC-4. I hit on the 12 and it’s a 9 for a 21. Sweet. I hit the 16. Busted out with a 10. RC -5. I surrender the next 16 since I just felt like a bust was coming. As it turned out I was right. It was a 6 since the next player hit on her hand.

Talk about a run of the same card - 5 8’s within the first 25 cards of a six deck shoe.

You FELT like a bust was coming??? Sigh. Tell us again exactly WHY you're playing??

Don

[lij45o6]

You FELT like a bust was coming??? Sigh. Tell us again exactly WHY you're playing??

Don

Duh, itsn't it obvious Donald?!

He *felt* the bust coming, so he invariantly caused the dealer to steer the bust card for the other player!

No mathemagic needed! Counting is eazy-peaszy!

/sarcasm

[Midwest Player]

I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them. Dealer gives me a 4 and another 8. RC is now -4. I split the 8’s of the second hand. I am dealt 2 more 8’s. Since their rules limit splits to a max of 3 hands I now have a 12 a 16 and a 16.

If you received a 4 on your first 8 why didn't you hit that 12 against the dealers 10. You would have had 20. You stood on a 12 against a 10?

[CountinCanadian]

I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them.

By "usually" I hope you mean always. Because the index for this play is 0, meaning you should always surrender when the RC is 0+.
And by "since it was early" I hope you mean because the count was negative. Because doing something "because it's early" is as bad a rationale as you can come up with.

I surrender the next 16 since I just felt like a bust was coming. As it turned out I was right. It was a 6 since the next player hit on her hand.

I hope you don't feel any satisfaction about "being correct" while making a mathematically incorrect play.

You weren't correct, you had no evidence, nothing to suggest to you whatsoever, that surrendering was correct. You did know what the mathematically correct play was, and you chose to go against it, why? Do you have a 6th sense that transcends math? Must be why all the ploppies are making it big and getting counter measured.

The fact that you were right is meaningless, there is a strong chance of being right regardless, but over time it will be less often than the correct play. Hence, why it is the "correct play."

You can be right to double down a 19, over such a whopping sample size of 1 hand... Your palpable sense of pride over being correct on a hunch is what bothers me, as though it was indicative of some sort of genius on your part, while in reality it was indicative of the contrary

[BJGenius007]

Also tonight this happened within that half shoe I played.

At about the half deck area of the beginning of shoe I was dealt a pair of 8’s against a dealer 10. RC -5. I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them. Dealer gives me a 4 and another 8. RC is now -4. I split the 8’s of the second hand. I am dealt 2 more 8’s. Since their rules limit splits to a max of 3 hands I now have a 12 a 16 and a 16. RC-4. I hit on the 12 and it’s a 9 for a 21. Sweet. I hit the 16. Busted out with a 10. RC -5. I surrender the next 16 ...

Strange. After the splitting, you shouldn't be allowed to surrender your third 16.

[Midwest Player]

Also tonight this happened within that half shoe I played.

At about the half deck area of the beginning of shoe I was dealt a pair of 8’s against a dealer 10. RC -5. I usually surrender 8’s when the RC is positive but tonight since it was early I just went along and split them. Dealer gives me a 4 and another 8. RC is now -4. I split the 8’s of the second hand. I am dealt 2 more 8’s. Since their rules limit splits to a max of 3 hands I now have a 12 a 16 and a 16. RC-4. I hit on the 12 and it’s a 9 for a 21. Sweet. I hit the 16. Busted out with a 10. RC -5. I surrender the next 16 since I just felt like a bust was coming. As it turned out I was right. It was a 6 since the next player hit on her hand.

Talk about a run of the same card - 5 8’s within the first 25 cards of a six deck shoe.

Even stranger. They let him go back and hit his twelve after he moved on to the next hand of the split.

[Meistro123]

I'm more surprised they let you surrender after splitting.

[tomf23]

Strange. After the splitting, you shouldn't be allowed to surrender your third 16.

what does this add to your edge? i'm guessing not much since you don't often split to a surrender hand.

[Gronbog]

I'm more surprised they let you surrender after splitting.

I know of a place that allows this.

what does this add to your edge? i'm guessing not much since you don't often split to a surrender hand.

Correct.