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Thread: At what point is a cash back rebate good?

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  1. #1


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    At what point is a cash back rebate good?

    A lot of the online casinos i play at have promotions that give cash back on your net losses. They range from 10% to 25%. Do any of these promotions make it worth playing? I'm not a math guy so i can't figure this out myself.

  2. #2
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    It's all about the specifics of the offer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    It's all about the specifics of the offer.
    They just give you back whatever percentage of your loss a few days later. You can play any game, including blackjack. It's usually only up to $100 back.

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    Loss rebates is (primarily) how Don Johnson made $15M

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    Quote Originally Posted by 21forme View Post
    Loss rebates is (primarily) how Don Johnson made $15M
    This is false. His crew was counting, tracking and hole carding. The loss rebates were a ruse.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ShipTheCookies View Post
    This is false. His crew was counting, tracking and hole carding. The loss rebates were a ruse.
    You’re both wrong. Don Johnson’s biggest - and most famous score - for $5.8 million was at the Tropicana in April 2011. For this big score, he was playing solo (no crew was around) for 15 hours playing basic strategy, and not counting cards. He got lucky that night. Don even admits he wasn’t counting cards. At one point, he won something like 41 straight hands during this session. How do I know? Research and common sense. He was allowed back into the Tropicana after this big win and the Tropicana reviewed his play extensivly. Tropicana was okay with his big win since he was playing in a negative EV way. He did what anybody could do, got lucky in the short run, but he was playing much higher stakes than your average joe blow gambler.

    What made Don Johnson famous? The casinos and the Atlantic magazine where they featured him on their cover with their lead story called “The Man Who Broke Atlantic City”. The casinos were the ones who alerted reporters to Don’s wins in their quarterly conference calls. The casinos made Don Johnson their slot winner poster child for whales. You see casinos like winners as long as they play the game on their terms, which Don did. These wins are the ones discussed in the Atlantic magazine article. Btw, there is no mention of all his losing sessions, which he had many by his own admission.

    Bottom line is we don’t know how much Don won after all his winning and losing sessions. Don won’t revel this, but we can be pretty sure it was far short of $15 million after his losing sessions are taken into account.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    You’re both wrong. Don Johnson’s biggest - and most famous score - for $5.8 million was at the Tropicana in April 2011. For this big score, he was playing solo (no crew was around) for 15 hours playing basic strategy, and not counting cards.
    He was working a lot of angles. Don't speak of which you know no insiders to tell you what was actually going on. If you think anything that he said about what he was doing to any public forum is true, then you don't understand how to protect big plays. Why would he tell anyone everything he was doing. He told people what the casinos already knew. If he obviously counted they would have killed his rebate deal quick. He had some very sweet terms to that deal that you are not going to get. Like I said the rebate is as good as the specifics of the offer. But a lot more was going on beside the rebate and he wouldn't risk what he was doing by getting caught counting cards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    He was working a lot of angles. Don't speak of which you know no insiders to tell you what was actually going on. If you think anything that he said about what he was doing to any public forum is true, then you don't understand how to protect big plays. Why would he tell anyone everything he was doing. He told people what the casinos already knew. If he obviously counted they would have killed his rebate deal quick. He had some very sweet terms to that deal that you are not going to get. Like I said the rebate is as good as the specifics of the offer. But a lot more was going on beside the rebate and he wouldn't risk what he was doing by getting caught counting cards.
    Three, it is not debatable on what happened at the Tropicana with Don Johnson. Don was playing solo there for 15 hours. It’s documented. There is quite a bit on this including the CEO of the Tropicana at that time commenting on it.

    I fully understand Don Johnson also did other AP plays with his crew, but this is not what made him famous. The win that made Don famous was at the Tropicana. That is the one that put him on the map and the one that got the Atlantic magazine reporter on his trail. In this big win (the one that made him famous), Don was not playing with an advantage. He got lucky, playing in a negative EV way.

    Why was April 2011 at the Tropicana important? That was the month the Tropicana showed a loss for bj, which is very rare, but not unheard of, for a casino. The Tropicana was the casino that pointed out to the reporters that their bj loss for that month was due to one player, Don Johnson. Don wasn’t the one bragging about it. It was the casinos bragging about it. They like to show the public people can win big money at their casinos and be welcome back, and that’s what they did with Don Johnson. That’s why I call Don Johnson the casino’s slot poster winner for whales.

    Here’s another interesting fact during that time. On April 2011 (the same month Tropicana showed a loss in bj), Caesars showed one of their biggest wins ever for bj. I wonder if this was Don Johnson giving most of his Tropicana winnings back to Caesars? Yes, I know Don Johnson had a big win at Ceasers in Atlantic City but it was before April 2011.

    I will repeat Don Johnson had a lot of big losing sessions by his own admission. We will never know how much he really won after all his loses. All we know about is his three big winning sessions, which totaled $15 million. We don’t know the whole story.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    You see casinos like winners as long as they play the game on their terms, which Don did.
    Lol. Wrong. The casinos lost a fortune and knew they could generate plus EV if they exposed how much you could win to tempt others to come and lose. He played along with it and said it was just a cash rebate so the casinos could get their advertisement in what Don had done. It was simply good business for the casinos to handle it that way and get free advertising.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    ....You see casinos like winners ..
    ah contraire mon ami....you say "everyone who wins is a threat", yet "casinos like winners"....please expand on where you got your business acumen???

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sharky View Post
    ah contraire mon ami....you say "everyone who wins is a threat", yet "casinos like winners"....please expand on where you got your business acumen???
    Sharky, you’re taking my quotes out of context. Please read them within the context they were meant. The first quote is from a thread where we (you started it) were talking about people who win using AP techniques, which means counting. Casinos don’t like this. The second quote comes from a thread where we’re talking about someone winning like Don Johnson (where he wasn’t playing with an advantage). Casinos are okay with that.

    Do you understand the difference? I hope you don’t start going down the road of pulling quotes from different threads to prove one of your meaningless points. If you continue to go down this road, I won’t be replying to your posts in the future because they are wasting my time and everybody elses time.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dbs6582 View Post
    The second quote comes from a thread where we’re talking about someone winning like Don Johnson (where he wasn’t playing with an advantage).
    He was playing with a much much bigger advantage than a counter. Counters get but a minimal advantage. If you think he wasn't doing lots of things to get an advantage over the rebate you don't understand what he did at all. He just pretty much flat bet. If you understand BJ you know there are a lot of things that can give you the advantage while flat betting. He was doing what he could to maximize them all. Plus there was the rebate so he didn't need much extra. What made him great was he figured out how to get away with it for as long as he did.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    He was playing with a much much bigger advantage than a counter. Counters get but a minimal advantage. If you think he wasn't doing lots of things to get an advantage over the rebate you don't understand what he did at all. He just pretty much flat bet. If you understand BJ you know there are a lot of things that can give you the advantage while flat betting. He was doing what he could to maximize them all. Plus there was the rebate so he didn't need much extra. What made him great was he figured out how to get away with it for as long as he did.
    Three, I agree with on flat betting. Don was flat betting most the time during his big win at the Tropicana, and during many of his big loses. And Don did experience some big loses during this time playing the same way. You don’t see much press about these losses. Why? Because casinos don’t want you to know about those. Casinos only want people to know about their winners. It’s why they put up pictures of slot winners in their casinos. Have you ever seen a picture of a person who has lost several thousand on slots in a casino? I know I haven’t. That’s why I call Don Johnson the slot winner poster child for whales.

    You need to listen to some of Don’s Interviews. GWAE has two of them, and Colin recently did an excellent interview with Don on BJA. Don has said casinos aren’t ATMs; Don has said he had a lots of losing sessions during this time; Don has said he’s not made of Kevilar; Don has admitted the press didn’t report on all his losses. If Don had some magic winning formula, he wouldn’t have taken all these big losses.

    And you’re wrong about these attractive loss rebates going on a long time...they did not last long. After Don’s big win at the Tropicana, they took away his loss rebate, but he was still allowed to come back and play, as long as he played like he did during this big win. The Tropicana knew it’d only be a matter of time before he gave it all back.

    Once Don’s loss rebates were taken away, it appears this is when he started trying some AP plays, and this is when he travelled with his entourage. What few people know is this part of his bj career did not go well. Casinos spotted this right away and he got the boot. That’s why he’s barred from so many casinos today.

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