How Does a blackjack comeback look like?

**dalmatian** · 07-30-2018, 06:03 PM

Im wondering if those that have been fortunate enough to come back from a losing streak can elaborate on what that look's like?!

I've been steadily losing any losing and just losing all year long. And they're horrible losses in small sessions. Today I lost 2100 in 3 hours.

I put in about 70 hours this year and am ~-9000$. My spread is 5/10 min, 2×30$ @ +2, 2×60$ @ +3, and 2×100$ @ +4 or higher.

I've had several sessions that were -2000 or -1000 and just one +1300 session but that took all day. All my other winning sessions where +500 or less. Is this just really bad variance? I play mostly H17 das rsa 6D with hi low and I18.

Will I eventually have a surge of positive variance that brings me back in a few hours to positive or will this take years to reverse?

I had a complete fit and basically started shouting the count out loud and swearing in disbelief as I lost max bet after max bet today. The pit boss and dealer said nothing and I wasn't arrested. I think I will be able to hold my emotions if I ever win money but as long as I am negative I can't handle these severe losing streaks.

**Freightman** · 07-30-2018, 06:17 PM

Years ago, I had a 3 month losing streak of about 60k. Also had a 3 month win streak of about 84k. The numbers you're spouting are really tough ones, the kind that makes you question your abilities.

First, what are the rules, and what is your bankroll. Second, just to make sure, have someone trustworthy audit your game for leaks. Third, a spreadsheet to analyze (all) your results would be helpful to spot trends. Fourth, not a project for today, your ramping looks robotic. That's a good way to dump money when things aren't going your way.

Assuming your roll and your game are in order, all will be well in the garden.

https://youtu.be/TYeVQzTVyLk

**Dbs6582** · 07-31-2018, 03:26 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

Fourth, not a project for today, your ramping looks robotic. That's a good way to dump money when things aren't going your way.

Freightman, this advice didn’t make much sense. It sounds like something out of a ploppy handbook. Math is the math. Are you saying if he makes his ramp in a more non robotic fashion it will help him win? I get how this will help longevity but I fail to see how this has anything to do with a losing streak. Please explain. Thanks.

**Freightman** · 07-31-2018, 04:31 AM

Originally Posted by Dbs6582

Freightman, this advice didn’t make much sense. It sounds like something out of a ploppy handbook. Math is the math. Are you saying if he makes his ramp in a more non robotic fashion it will help him win? I get how this will help longevity but I fail to see how this has anything to do with a losing streak. Please explain. Thanks.

Why am I not surprised?
As i said, not a project for today. Frankly, it's too advanced for you, and I don't feel like wasting my time with you.

**Three** · 07-31-2018, 05:56 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

Why am I not surprised?
As i said, not a project for today. Frankly, it's too advanced for you, and I don't feel like wasting my time with you.

Ds will never get it. He thinks playing in a casino is the same as playing a computer sim. Not all equal TCs are created equal. Think about it. You can either know how to recognize the difference from additional info gathered, or realize that results may indicate a difference. Some interesting threads on this:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-at-tc-1/page3

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...orial-Analysis

**Dbs6582** · 07-31-2018, 07:21 AM

Originally Posted by Three

Ds will never get it. He thinks playing in a casino is the same as playing a computer sim. Not all equal TCs are created equal. Think about it. You can either know how to recognize the difference from additional info gathered, or realize that results may indicate a difference. Some interesting threads on this:

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-at-tc-1/page3

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...orial-Analysis

Hey, thanks Three! This is good info! I do get it as far as all TCs aren’t created equal. While I don’t use a level two count, I still incorporate many of its ideas into my Hilo. I know the value of removal of each card and keep a warm and fuzzy feel for this as I use my HiLo count. This is relatively easy to do since I only play single and DD. For example, I know at the same TC my advantage is greater if I’ve seen more 4 and 5s than 2s and 3s, and thus I bet more than the TC calls for.

However, that’s not the point of my original question or the OP’s question. If what the OP said is correct, then what he is doing is playing a winning game. His problem is he’s on a losing streak. Yes, a better counting system will somewhat help, which is what you’re suggesting, but sometimes losing streaks happen. Being robotic or not with betting will not get you out of losing streaks. That was really my only point. Thanks for the attachments! I’ll be reading them again!

**Freightman** · 07-31-2018, 07:27 AM

Originally Posted by Dbs6582

Hey, thanks Three! This is good info! I do get it as far as all TCs aren’t created equal. While I don’t use a level two count, I still incorporate many of its ideas into my Hilo. I know the value of removal of each card and keep a warm and fuzzy feel for this as I use my HiLo count. This is relatively easy to do since I only play single and DD. For example, I know at the same TC my advantage is greater if I’ve seen more 4 and 5s than 2s and 3s, and thus I bet more than the TC calls for.

However, that’s not the point of my original question or the OP’s question. If what the OP said is correct, then what he is doing is playing a winning game. His problem is he’s on a losing streak. Yes, a better counting system will somewhat help, which is what you’re suggesting, but sometimes losing streaks happen. Being robotic or not with betting will not get you out of losing streaks. That was really my only point. Thanks for the attachments! I’ll be reading them again!

Clearly, you're missing it totally. But as I said, you're not worth the time.

**Dbs6582** · 07-31-2018, 07:28 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

Clearly, you're missing it totally. But as I said, you're not worth the time.

i must be worth some of your time because you replied to my post, even thought you didn’t say anything of value. Lol

**Three** · 07-31-2018, 08:42 AM

Originally Posted by Freightman

Clearly, you're missing it totally.

Yes Ds is. Follow the clues in a different direction.

**Freightman** · 07-31-2018, 08:47 AM

Originally Posted by Three

Yes Ds is. Follow the clues in a different direction.

I thought it was obvious from your post 21.

**Three** · 07-31-2018, 09:07 AM

Originally Posted by Three

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...-at-tc-1/page3

https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...orial-Analysis

I just realized that bot links are in the subscription forum. My apologies to those that don't subscribe. The best stuff is always posted in the subscription forum. These were in the "Advanced Strategies, Theories and Math" forum. For what a 1 month subscription costs on most forums you get almost a years subscription here. You can't beat that and you will get to read these advanced AP threads.

**cole trickle** · 08-01-2018, 06:03 PM

question - when your at max bet and you lose 5 hands in a row at max bet, do you do anything to change it up/ decrease bet?

**Three** · 07-30-2018, 06:42 PM

Originally Posted by dalmatian

Will I eventually have a surge of positive variance that brings me back in a few hours to positive or will this take years to reverse?

It could be one or the other or you might not recover. You are looking at an insignificant sample size and your future play will also be an insignificant sample size. Statistically you arrant due for a correction. You are never due for a correction. Statistically two seemingly different things are true. After enough rounds moving forward you should be close to EV from this point forward. I the same number of rounds from your start you should be at EV. I would put more weight on the former but neither are sure things. Nothing is due as these two truths predict such different outcomes. Our play is never a large sampling even for a lifetime of play.

Originally Posted by dalmatian

I've had several sessions that were -2000 or -1000 and just one +1300 session but that took all day. All my other winning sessions where +500 or less. Is this just really bad variance? I play mostly H17 das rsa 6D with hi low and I18.

Exit strategy can engineer session results like this. Trying to get even when behind often makes you fall further in the hole and causes you to give the casino too much exposure. Getting it back and posting a small win looks bad. Many casinos see that as a big win. Leaving after being ahead a little limits wins. There should be some symmetry for your exit strategy concerning wins and loses.

You should be doing two things as much as you can control them. Play when you get the most hands played in the least amount of time. And missing as many disadvantage counts as you can get away with.