How Does a blackjack comeback look like?

[dalmatian]

Im wondering if those that have been fortunate enough to come back from a losing streak can elaborate on what that look's like?!

I've been steadily losing any losing and just losing all year long. And they're horrible losses in small sessions. Today I lost 2100 in 3 hours.

I put in about 70 hours this year and am ~-9000$. My spread is 5/10 min, 2×30$ @ +2, 2×60$ @ +3, and 2×100$ @ +4 or higher.

I've had several sessions that were -2000 or -1000 and just one +1300 session but that took all day. All my other winning sessions where +500 or less. Is this just really bad variance? I play mostly H17 das rsa 6D with hi low and I18.

Will I eventually have a surge of positive variance that brings me back in a few hours to positive or will this take years to reverse?

I had a complete fit and basically started shouting the count out loud and swearing in disbelief as I lost max bet after max bet today. The pit boss and dealer said nothing and I wasn't arrested. I think I will be able to hold my emotions if I ever win money but as long as I am negative I can't handle these severe losing streaks.

[Freightman]

Years ago, I had a 3 month losing streak of about 60k. Also had a 3 month win streak of about 84k. The numbers you're spouting are really tough ones, the kind that makes you question your abilities.

First, what are the rules, and what is your bankroll. Second, just to make sure, have someone trustworthy audit your game for leaks. Third, a spreadsheet to analyze (all) your results would be helpful to spot trends. Fourth, not a project for today, your ramping looks robotic. That's a good way to dump money when things aren't going your way.

Assuming your roll and your game are in order, all will be well in the garden.

https://youtu.be/TYeVQzTVyLk

[Three]

Will I eventually have a surge of positive variance that brings me back in a few hours to positive or will this take years to reverse?

It could be one or the other or you might not recover. You are looking at an insignificant sample size and your future play will also be an insignificant sample size. Statistically you arrant due for a correction. You are never due for a correction. Statistically two seemingly different things are true. After enough rounds moving forward you should be close to EV from this point forward. I the same number of rounds from your start you should be at EV. I would put more weight on the former but neither are sure things. Nothing is due as these two truths predict such different outcomes. Our play is never a large sampling even for a lifetime of play.

I've had several sessions that were -2000 or -1000 and just one +1300 session but that took all day. All my other winning sessions where +500 or less. Is this just really bad variance? I play mostly H17 das rsa 6D with hi low and I18.

Exit strategy can engineer session results like this. Trying to get even when behind often makes you fall further in the hole and causes you to give the casino too much exposure. Getting it back and posting a small win looks bad. Many casinos see that as a big win. Leaving after being ahead a little limits wins. There should be some symmetry for your exit strategy concerning wins and loses.

You should be doing two things as much as you can control them. Play when you get the most hands played in the least amount of time. And missing as many disadvantage counts as you can get away with.

[Three]

Wong out at tolerant stores, and most of the hours have been at a store that allows me to wong out @ -2 or less

How can a store not allow you to leave the table?

[Bigdaddy]

Could just be a bad run. Although it is fairly extreme, it is not outside the realm of possibility.

If you assume 6,000 rounds, $30 average bet per round (based on your spread), 1.6 standard deviation per round and a 1% overall advantage, your $9k loss would be at about 2.9 standard deviations from EV or about 2 in 1000 chance. If your average bet was closer to $40 per round then you'd be 2.3 standard deviations from EV or about 1 in 100 chance. Lucky you. I know the feeling....

[Sharky]

.... Potowanomi, Ho chunk, oneida, island resort, treasure island, El cortez, treasure bay, and Harrah cherfokee. ALL NEGATIVE. not a single positive net experience.

that’s some real crappers, there...

[Jabberwocky]

Lock up your emotions then watch everything turn around.

[Timbertom]

These ups and downs of your bankroll is something you are just going to have to get used to, no matter how many years you play they will continue. Controlling your emotions is very important. If you think you are loosing it, as you did today, it is better to walk away, book the loss and come back another day. Shouting out the count and swearing is not the way to keep a site long term.
The other advice in this thread about making sure your game is sound is good advice, however I think your problem is attitude not your ability to count cards. It is tougher to learn.

[CountinCanadian]

Could this be my negative attitude at the table? Ive been very pessimistic and I feel this is fate telling me to go F myself.

I don't see how I'm not a pro counter. I can keep the running count to near perfection, my true count conversion is accurate, and I know ~50-60 indices (mostly positive bc I wong out).

I am negative at EVERY casino lifetime. Potowanomi, Ho chunk, oneida, island resort, treasure island, El cortez, treasure bay, and Harrah cherokee. ALL NEGATIVE. not a single positive net experience.

Potowanomi... I happen to know someone who goes there all the time (not counter, basic strategy player) but if I recall correctly, based on their description, the rules are not worth playing there.

[Bushie]

Are you resizing your bets?

[stopgambling]

If you are feeling and acting like that , you are nowhere close to being a decent counter. Your bankroll is your stake and you could lose all of it and that is what you are dealing with . You are not dealing with a session or two in the pursuit of EV. I too had a similar losing streak like Freightman , 3 months similar amount(started with a very low 4 figure bank). Unless you played 4 Nzero( at least 2 nzero) and still losing then you should start worrying.

[stopgambling]

I easily lost 80/90 max bets in a 300 hours stretch and for sure i messed up more due to emotion and probably lost an extra 5 to 10 max bets due to miscount in bad emotional state. i don't do that anymore.

[Dbs6582]

Fourth, not a project for today, your ramping looks robotic. That's a good way to dump money when things aren't going your way.

Freightman, this advice didn’t make much sense. It sounds like something out of a ploppy handbook. Math is the math. Are you saying if he makes his ramp in a more non robotic fashion it will help him win? I get how this will help longevity but I fail to see how this has anything to do with a losing streak. Please explain. Thanks.