Speaking of edges...

[Red Green]

Similar to what Stealth said....

After you have many sessions of data collected, look at the sessions individually but together. Here's an example with made up numbers. Let's say you've played 100 sessions of 1 hour each. The sim says you should make $100 in EV per hour and have an hourly std dev of +/- $1,000. Look at your sessions, 68.2% should land between -$900 and +$1,100. And then 27.2% should land between -$1,900 to -$900 and +$1,100 to $2,100. And 4.2% should land between -$2,900 to -$1,900 and +$2,100 to +$3,100. CVCX will tell you all this stuff.

You should be somewhat close to those numbers. If you're not close to those numbers then you may be doing something like overbetting, underbetting, or making other types of mistakes.

Thanks for the clarification.

That means really refining the sim to model the ramp and play cover and being very disciplined ensuring the play matches the sim.

Hopefully you see the results falling into the graph as projected. If you see the correct pattern after, say 50 sessions, you would be happy. The mystery is that it could take much longer. And you wouldn’t necessarily know if it’s really standard deviation (ok) OR your play is sub-optimal (uh-oh!).

Is it correct that N0 may represent the number of hands which SHOULD represent a sufficiently large sample to know if you’re “ok” or in “uh-oh” territory?


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[RS]

Yeah, that's the idea. Your individual sessions, when graphed, should look similar to the bell curve from the sim.

N0 is the # of hands you need to play such that your EV is equal to 1 standard deviation. In other words, after that many hands played, if you're down 1 SD, then you're at break-even.

[Three]

Yeah, that's the idea. Your individual sessions, when graphed, should look similar to the bell curve from the sim.

That assumes your sessions are the same length as the sim sessions.

[Midwest Player]

Wrong. I play perfectly, but it doesn't matter because I'm also cursed. Luckily I'm the best player to ever touch a blackjack table(not a troll) or otherwise I'd be screwed. I need every ounce of talent just to be even with everyone else because God and this world hates me. But im used to it, not everyone can deal with that, only happens to the best.

Boy, this sure sounds like ZenKing from over at blackjackinfo. There are many posts over there where he mentions how God hates him and the world too. Suggest you say a prayer to Saint Cajetan the patron saint of gamblers and maybe he can intercede with God for you.

[Red Green]

That assumes your sessions are the same length as the sim sessions.

Interesting point, Three. That may make this exercise a bit easier. You could sim the game just played, enter the HPH, time played and input the actual result. The sim spits out your location on the SD curve. You could then track the output on a session by session basis and over time see if your results are normal (statistically speaking)




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[RS]

Interesting point, Three. That may make this exercise a bit easier. You could sim the game just played, enter the HPH, time played and input the actual result. The sim spits out your location on the SD curve. You could then track the output on a session by session basis and over time see if your results are normal (statistically speaking)




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You could just get the 1-round SD and use that figure in your spreadsheet for calculating the session’s SD if you know how many rounds you played for the session.