Kelly Criterion and ploppy logic

**Dbs6582** · 06-30-2018, 05:10 PM

I was spending some time researching the Kelly Criterion and read on Wikipedia about a study that I found hard to believe so I looked it up. It's called "Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin" by Victor Haghani and Richard Dewey in 2016.

It's mind dumbing how stupid the majority of the test subjects were. They were college finance students and young professionals at financial firms. They were told a coin was biased to come up heads 60% of the time. Their task was to try to maximize their money in 30 mins starting with $25. They got to keep what they won up to $250 so it was in their interest to do as well as possible.

The results were shocking. 28% went bust, and 1/3 ended up with less money then they started with. Only 21% reached the maximum $250 payout amount. What I thought was the most surprising is that 48% bet on tails over 5 times. They usually did this after they had a string of heads, assuming a tail was more likely to come up (probably using gamblers fallacy thinking).

It's hard to believe so many intelligent people did this bad after being given such good odds. The take away for me is that most gamblers will still mess up due to poor money management, even if they are given an advantage. I know this isn't that shocking. Attached is the study if you want a good laugh.

https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery...074006&EXT=pdf

**CountinCanadian** · 06-30-2018, 11:53 PM

Hilarious, thanks for sharing. I was actually just watching someone go Martingale on roulette, each time it was rolling black, and each time he bet red, saying, the odds of it being black 5 times in a row are like 3%!!! This one has to be red. (He lost a lot of money...)

**SiMi** · 07-01-2018, 06:45 AM

Hi, CC
I'm not sure if this is the correct way to ask this but I was wondering if you play in Canada and, if so, would you be willing to start a post about any differences in the way BJ is offered up in Canada so we can compare it to the U.S. I am planning a trip up there soon and was curious if there are any differences in the way it's generally done up there.

Thanks!
SiMi

**Freightman** · 07-01-2018, 07:04 AM

Originally Posted by SiMi

Hi, CC
I'm not sure if this is the correct way to ask this but I was wondering if you play in Canada and, if so, would you be willing to start a post about any differences in the way BJ is offered up in Canada so we can compare it to the U.S. I am planning a trip up there soon and was curious if there are any differences in the way it's generally done up there.

Thanks!
SiMi

Canada is a big country. What part of the country?

**SiMi** · 07-01-2018, 07:10 AM

Hi, FM
I'll take any part. I'm mostly wondering if there is any significant difference from what I'm used to in the U.S.

SiMi

**Freightman** · 07-01-2018, 07:14 AM

Originally Posted by SiMi

Hi, FM
I'll take any part. I'm mostly wondering if there is any significant difference from what I'm used to in the U.S.

SiMi

Lots of No dealer hole card.

**SiMi** · 07-01-2018, 07:23 AM

Hi, again,
Thanks for that.

SiMi

**Meistro123** · 07-01-2018, 09:46 AM

if so, would you be willing to start a post about any differences in the way BJ is offered up in Canada

For the most part the games in Canada are pretty similar to what you should be used to.

In Vancouver you will find a lot of 2 deck, DAS, DA2, H17, no surrender games.

In Alberta the games are almost all 6 deck, H17, DAS, DA2, RSA, ES10. These games are dealt without a hole card, but it is OBO, so functionally the same as game where the dealer peeks.

In saskatchewan and manitoba you will find the same rules without surrender, and a bit of a double deck with vancouver rules as well, although they may have restricted doubling. In Regina and presumably moose jaw as well they have S17 but ENHC and bad pen.

Now onto Ontario and you find 8 deck, S17, DAS, DA2, except Windsor which is H17 but does have RSA. High limit games are six decks with the same rules. Dunno if the recent great canadian take over has affected the conditions, so my info here might be a bit dated.

Quebec has 8 deck H17 DAS DA2 games, although 6 deck S17 games can be found in the high limit sections.

New Brunswick has only one casino, Casino Moncton, which has a LS10, H17, DAS, DA2, six deck game.

Halifax has a double deck game with bad rules, NDAS, and restricted doubling, and a six deck game as well.

PEI was all CSM.

**SiMi** · 07-01-2018, 10:01 AM

M123
Wow! Thanks! That's exactly what I was hoping for.

Best
SiMi

**Meistro123** · 07-01-2018, 11:52 AM

The optimal wager also depends on how much time you have left and how many flips you can do in an hour. If it is your last spin and you have less than $225 then you should bet $25.

**DSchles** · 07-01-2018, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

The optimal wager also depends on how much time you have left and how many flips you can do in an hour. If it is your last spin and you have less than $225 then you should bet $25.

I deleted my post. Sorry to orphan yours. Upon further thought, what I wrote can't possibly be correct.

Don

**CountinCanadian** · 07-01-2018, 12:36 PM

Originally Posted by SiMi

Hi, CC
I'm not sure if this is the correct way to ask this but I was wondering if you play in Canada and, if so, would you be willing to start a post about any differences in the way BJ is offered up in Canada so we can compare it to the U.S. I am planning a trip up there soon and was curious if there are any differences in the way it's generally done up there.

Thanks!
SiMi

And winnings aren't taxed