Wonder what the odds are..

**ZeeBabar** · 06-27-2018, 02:19 PM

I was playing a DD game heads up, RC +4 after maybe 3 rounds, place $100 bet and get a pair of Aces against a 6. I split them and received an Ace each on both my Aces, dealer had a 4 under, hit with a 10, lost both hands.

While I have received 2 BJ's a few times, I had never received an Ace each on top of a pair of split Aces in a DD game. I suppose its more frequent in a 6 deck game but in a DD game? Anyone had it happen?

A few shoes later, I again received a pair of Aces against a 3, split them and received an Ace on one and a 5 on the other. Had a $25 bet out and luckily the dealer busted. Cards were wierd but I ended up winning so I wont mention rigged ASM's.

**lessj** · 06-27-2018, 02:26 PM

I’m convinced Zee is trolling. We’ve been through this “what are the odds...” thing about a billion times, no?

**ZeeBabar** · 06-27-2018, 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by lessj

I’m convinced Zee is trolling. We’ve been through this “what are the odds...” thing about a billion times, no?

If I am trolling, then you should ignore the thread. Why make the thread about me?

There are mathematicians and others who can simply tell the odds of this scenario. Since you can't, you would do everyone a favor by doing what you should do if you think someone is trolling. You should ignore the post. Course, unless you are arrogant enough to think others need you to point out to them what a troll is.

**hitthat16** · 06-27-2018, 04:08 PM

I feel that I split aces to four hands once every few months.

**Freightman** · 06-27-2018, 04:18 PM

Originally Posted by hitthat16

I feel that I split aces to four hands once every few months.

I've maxed split aces, 9's, 8,s, 7,s, 6's, and just this past weekend - 4,s. The 7's were all doubled, the rest of them, including the 4', had a couple of doubles.

Successful max splits can make or break your day.

**ShipTheCookies** · 06-27-2018, 07:40 PM

When you play long enough, you'll see almost everything.

**lessj** · 06-27-2018, 07:42 PM

Originally Posted by ZeeBabar

If I am trolling, then you should ignore the thread. Why make the thread about me?

There are mathematicians and others who can simply tell the odds of this scenario. Since you can't, you would do everyone a favor by doing what you should do if you think someone is trolling. You should ignore the post. Course, unless you are arrogant enough to think others need you to point out to them what a troll is.

My post was not ill-intended. I just saw you post something similar a couple weeks ago and get damn near crucified for it, I was surprised to see another similar thread.

**Dog Hand** · 06-27-2018, 09:46 PM

ZeeBabar,

Off the top of a DD game, the probability of getting four consecutive aces is simply

(8/104)*(7/103)*(6/102)*(5/101) = 0.0000152236

If you invert that result, you'll see the odds are about 65688 to 1.

Since you said the RC was +4 after 3 rounds, the TC was a bit over +2, so the probability of 4 consecutive aces would be a bit higher than I showed above, but probably still less than 0.00002.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

**paymypush** · 06-28-2018, 06:06 AM

Originally Posted by lessj

I’m convinced Zee is trolling. We’ve been through this “what are the odds...” thing about a billion times, no?

I've always enjoyed "what are the odds" type questions on this and other forums. I usually have an idea but am sometimes surprised by the answer.

If I only had a red chip for all the times I've heard what are the odds at the table. To each his own I guess.

**refinery** · 06-28-2018, 06:10 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

Hope this helps!

Me too.

**ShipTheCookies** · 06-28-2018, 07:00 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

ZeeBabar,

Off the top of a DD game, the probability of getting four consecutive aces is simply

(8/104)*(7/103)*(6/102)*(5/101) = 0.0000152236

If you invert that result, you'll see the odds are about 65688 to 1.

Since you said the RC was +4 after 3 rounds, the TC was a bit over +2, so the probability of 4 consecutive aces would be a bit higher than I showed above, but probably still less than 0.00002.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

One small issue but not sure if it makes much difference. He didn't get 4 consecutive aces. The cards were dealt as follows according to Zee: A, 6, A, 4, A, A (Not going to count the drawn 10 card to the dealers 6, 4). Don't forget the two dealers cards were in there as well.

**BJGenius007** · 06-28-2018, 07:00 AM

Originally Posted by Dog Hand

ZeeBabar,

Off the top of a DD game, the probability of getting four consecutive aces is simply

(8/104)*(7/103)*(6/102)*(5/101) = 0.0000152236

If you invert that result, you'll see the odds are about 65688 to 1.

Since you said the RC was +4 after 3 rounds, the TC was a bit over +2, so the probability of 4 consecutive aces would be a bit higher than I showed above, but probably still less than 0.00002.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

And I don't understand why Zee concludes that ASM is not rigged. It is clear that ASM created an ace clump (four aces in a roll). I saw ace clump, four clump and eight clump all the time and much more often than other ranks.

**ShipTheCookies** · 06-28-2018, 07:03 AM

Originally Posted by BJGenius007

And I don't understand why Zee concludes that ASM is not rigged. It is clear that ASM created an ace clump (four aces in a roll). I saw ace clump, four clump and eight clump all the time and much more often than other ranks.

More bullshit shit from this guy. I got dealt AAAA7 in video poker yesterday!! Was the RNG rigged? NO!!!! You obviously do not understand the term "random."

P.S. I've been dealt, not just drawn to, 4 aces in VP numerous times before this as well!