Fairly new counter. Got started because I really like to play BJ and wish to not lose money on it.
There is no local game playable so I only play when i travel if there's a good game to be found.
Results has been positive so far. I have been building more BR and hoping to do it more seriously.

My question is at a point when I was clocking about 50 hours of play, and also being on negative side of variance one night. I met a ploppy that got pissed with my playing and said i'm playing it wrongly. I was wongin in and out, spreading hands messing up flow of cards etc. He back bet on my box because i wonged in and they were have some good voodoo about 2 boxes is good flow, and then insist on making betting decision for my box.

Long story short, this guy is a ploppy through and through no doubt about it. As we are arguing over how to bet the hand, he claimed he's been playing in that joint every night for a year (guy's a asian student), and has NOT lost money ACCUMULATIVELY so far.

What are the chances of that happening? Subsequently I did figure out it appears when he first started playing he plays smaller bets and then begin playing bigger bets. He only flat bets though. My guess is the variance of flat betting bigger and bigger bets cause him to not lose any money yet.

I've also heard some other stories of ploppies posting a win in periods as long as a few years despite playing regularly. I suppose they might has some good BR management and decent playing, but definitely not +EV. Is that possible?

Even though i like my winnings, and trust the math, I'm still abit unsure of my counting ability. Due to limited access, sometimes I've also playing non countable games on a holiday or work trip just for fun. Some games I've played has fairly bad rules I'm not sure if my counting is good enough to bring it to +EV. Kinda scared it's just the degen in me and my winnings are just luck and not skill. How do you distinguish the CC from these lucky ploppies? How many hours of play is deemed to be the long run.