On Track as Half Way Mark is Approaching

[Midwest Player]

Every year I have a realistic blackjack win goal that I like to achieve. Most of the time I don't achieve it, but some years I exceed it. Last year I exceeded the goal.

Anyway, as the halfway mark to this year is fast approaching, I find myself at just about the halfway mark to my goal. Last year at this time I had only 77 hours of blackjack play in versus 112 hours for this year. Last year at this time I played only 12 times with 2 losses. This year I played 18 times and again with 2 losses. Last year at this time I was over the halfway mark to my goal. This year I'm right at the halfway mark to my goal. And last year at this time my hourly win rate was $35 more per hour than this year.

I always budget in my income tax withholding enough money to cover a $10,000 gambling win. If I don't win that much then I get a nice income tax refund. If I do win that much then I have a nice win to be happy with.

[NB10]

Every year I have a realistic blackjack win goal that I like to achieve. Most of the time I don't achieve it, but some years I exceed it. Last year I exceeded the goal.

Anyway, as the halfway mark to this year is fast approaching, I find myself at just about at the halfway mark to my goal. Last year at this time I had only 77 hours of blackjack play in versus 112 hours for this year. Last year at this time I played only 12 times with 2 losses. This year I played 18 times and again with 2 losses. Last year at this time I was over the halfway mark to my goal. This year I'm right at the halfway mark to my goal. And last year at this time my hourly win rate was $35 more per hour than this year.

I always budget in my income tax withholding enough money to cover a $10,000 gambling win. If I don't win that much then I get a nice income tax refund. If I do win that much then I have a nice win to be happy with.

Playing 18 times over 112 hours is around 6 hours per time. How many casinos do you play at? I'm just curious as to how many casinos are needed to get this amount of play without playing too much in any one place and therefore increasing the risk of a back off/barring.

[Stealth]

Every year I have a realistic blackjack win goal that I like to achieve. Most of the time I don't achieve it, but some years I exceed it. Last year I exceeded the goal.

Anyway, as the halfway mark to this year is fast approaching, I find myself at just about at the halfway mark to my goal. Last year at this time I had only 77 hours of blackjack play in versus 112 hours for this year. Last year at this time I played only 12 times with 2 losses. This year I played 18 times and again with 2 losses. Last year at this time I was over the halfway mark to my goal. This year I'm right at the halfway mark to my goal. And last year at this time my hourly win rate was $35 more per hour than this year.

I always budget in my income tax withholding enough money to cover a $10,000 gambling win. If I don't win that much then I get a nice income tax refund. If I do win that much then I have a nice win to be happy with.

If i understand you have played 30 times in two years and experienced 4 losses. If my understanding is correct, this is way over any norm. It causes me to question if a "time" is a session at a table, a day or whatever, at any rate it is highly misleading.

Winning sessions (table session, not day, cot casino) in the area of 60-65% of the time is my experience if you are a competent player. Distorting those numbers would require loss limits, win limits or other types of protocols.

Thanks

[Midwest Player]

If i understand you have played 30 times in two years and experienced 4 losses. If my understanding is correct, this is way over any norm. It causes me to question if a "time" is a session at a table, a day or whatever, at any rate it is highly misleading.

Winning sessions (table session, not day, cot casino) in the area of 60-65% of the time is my experience if you are a competent player. Distorting those numbers would require loss limits, win limits or other types of protocols.

Thanks

No, you have it wrong. A session for me is one day. During that time I may switch tables several times and take breaks to eat. It is the amount of time I play in one day. The 4 losses in 30 times of play is kind of misleading because they were the year to date of last year and this year, and for some reason the losses in the beginning of both years were exceptionally low. I had a greater amount of losses in the second half of last year. My lifetime session win rate is 64%.

Here are my session win rates for the last ten years.
2008 70%
2009 64%
2010 66%
2011 73%
2012 65%
2013 62%
2014 71%
2015 63%
2016 61%
2017 77%
2018 89% ytd

[Midwest Player]

Playing 18 times over 112 hours is around 6 hours per time. How many casinos do you play at? I'm just curious as to how many casinos are needed to get this amount of play without playing too much in any one place and therefore increasing the risk of a back off/barring.

So far in 2018 I have played blackjack in 3 different states. My shortest session was one half hour and my longest was 11 hours in one day.

At the red chip level some casinos are quite tolerant.

[Three]

Here are my session win rates for the last ten years.
2008 70%
2009 64%
2010 66%
2011 73%
2012 65%
2013 62%
2014 71%
2015 63%
2016 61%
2017 77%
2018 89% ytd

That looks about right. I win about 71% of days played. My year usually has about 155 days played so I probably see less yearly fluctuation. Plus a day could be just a few hands played or a 18 hour marathon at a bunch of different casinos. It all depends on what I find when I get there. If BJ isn't the best play available then I attack other opportunities. Usually for at least a portion of the day BJ is the best available opportunity. I guess that might bring back some of the yearly fluctuation.

[21forme]

What difference does win/loss record on 100 hours of play make? This is voodoo talk.

[Midwest Player]

What difference does win/loss record on 100 hours of play make? This is voodoo talk.

There is nothing voodoo about this. This is what has happened in the beginning of last year and this year. Believe it or not.

[21forme]

There is nothing voodoo about this. This is what has happened in the beginning of last year and this year. Believe it or not.

It's simply a observation. Whether you won every session, had 20 BJs in a row, or shoveled your roof in July is of no statistical significance.

[JamesonDetroit]

It's simply a observation. Whether you won every session, had 20 BJs in a row, or shoveled your roof in July is of no statistical significance.

Correct, but I don't see what is wrong with making the observation. For me one I thoroughly enjoy playing around with stats and seeing interesting stuff like that. Sometimes, in fact, you might notice trends that are of value just by moving numbers around and viewing them in different groups. For example, if my overall win "rate" for sessions was 75%, but for every session that took place between 2pm and 5pm the rate shot down to 10%, that is a valuable piece on insight that might not be discovered but by messing with the stats in various ways, throwing them in charts, and so forth.

Of course, that (fake) example would require a really sizable data set to actually accept it as a meaningful trend, but assuming the data set was large enough, and the result was clear, I would be glad I looked around at numbers that overall are "meaningless" so that I can play less during that time of day (or work to play better during it).

In short, numbers are interesting, shuffling them around is fun, and sometimes it lends to valuable insight.

[Bigdaddy]

Here are my session win rates for the last ten years.
2008 70%
2009 64%
2010 66%
2011 73%
2012 65%
2013 62%
2014 71%
2015 63%
2016 61%
2017 77%
2018 89% ytd

MWP - you playing the same game as the rest of us? (i.e., blackjack card counting with no hole-card info). Even with a "Mr. Perfect" approach to wonging, those session win-rates seem way out of line. Not saying that they're not true, but you must be the luckiest man on earth.

For any newbies reading this post, please understand that normal session win rates for BJ card counting are in the 51% - 55% range, and maybe slightly higher for aggressive wonging approaches.

[21forme]

those session win-rates seem way out of line.

That's what a small sample size will get you - results with no statistical significance.

In my play last week, I got 4 BJs in a row. I must be an excellent player. And that was even without even using HiOptII.

[Freightman]

In my play last week, I got 4 BJs in a row. I must be an excellent player. And that was even without even using HiOptII.

So nu, did you have any money out? Or was it off the top.

It's bad enough getting a bj on min bet, but to get them successively, that's a bummer.