The law of large numbers applies to APs as well as to casinos.Originally Posted by Bushie
There are some part-time, recreational players who obsess over every hand and only think short-term. This is simply wrong and implies a lack of understanding of the game. Even with correct play, one may have losing streaks of weeks or months, but in the long-term, the math prevails.
I've had a few downswings over the years. My first in terms of percentage drop, was the worst. I think my roll at the start of that was in the 5k range. It was devastating to me. My last, which was huge in terms of dollars, was a few years ago. It wasn't chump change, yet I never resized.
I knew a fellow who, technically, was very talented. Yet, he lacked common sense. He built a nothing roll up to, or close to 250k. He thought that the statistical laws of variance did not apply to him, and he busted out. He wanted me to finance him with a 25k investment. I had misgivings and never did.
The point is, none of us are immune. They're things we can do to soften the blow, but we can't escape the inevitable.
Sometimes even years (as was the case with kewlj). I do understand that the winning game is in the long game, but variance can sometimes be so brutal that even with a BR with a 1% RoR (or lower) that no matter how sharp your game is variance can wipe you out completely. Hence why the greatest APs of all time NEVER understate the importance of "luck" (I know it's a dirty word around here) in their careers.
It's no wonder that it can take its toll on one's psyche.
I don't recall him having "years" of downturns, but perhaps I'm wrong. I do recall he mentioned a 6 month down turn followed by a huge reversal in a matter of weeks. Maybe there's a forum member here who is close to him and can clarify (wink).
Last year, I had a down turn that lasted a few months, playing a lot of hours. I ran a sim and it showed the likelihood of such a run was just shy of 2 SDs, and not the end of the world event I thought it was.
Zee, you’re probably right. I understand that side of the coin. With this said, it seems like lately I’ve been seeing quite a few of these young counters with huge spreads. They only play for an hour and then move on. I expect they are on some team since I can’t see how they have a bankroll to be able to bet $500 to $1000 a hand. I must say it’s pretty impressive how they get that money out there, and it doesn’t seem to phase them. It doesn’t look normal for a young kid to be betting this way. It’s definitively not the way a typical gambler bets. And yes, every time they throw out a bomb it correlates to the count. The TC is at least +4 or higher.
The part I disagree with you on is that these sites are creating the interest in bj and poppies. Only a very small fraction of the people playing in a casino have been on any of these sites or ever read a gambling book. People love blackjack; therefore it will always be around. The concern is with the quality of the game. Even in my area, I’m seeing more casinos converting to H17, and I’m seeing 6:5 slowly come in.
Freightman, I’ve not complained about you not answering my posts. In fact, I’ve suggested you should put me on ignore since you have a hard time handling views that don’t agree with yours. As far as me distorting the truth, that is false. You have repeatedly bragged about your results on this forum. Recently, you bragged about making $457/hr this year and I think it was Sharky that called bull shit on you.
In post #266 on the “How to Approach a Situation” thread you replied to one of my posts by saying: “My personal results are impressive. Son, you’re not in my league.”
I replied back: “Freightman, on this point we are in violent agreement. I’m sure your results are much more impressive than mine.”
Since I know you need your ego stroked, I’ve always let you know how proud I am of you. You’re the man!
Btw, when I went down memory lane looking up these old posts, I was surprised at how obsessed you were with me back then. I was in most of your posts, but the names you called me kept fluctuating. You spent about a month calling me ustonzen, and then Contrary, and then Mary Mary Contrary, and then I was a casino dealer and then there was a bunch of names I won’t mention here, until you settled in on dipshit. In was interesting to see how our relationship has evolved over these many weeks. Seems like much longer. Lol
As I mentioned, and quite likely similarly thought if by many, you are not worthy of any polite response, since you continually adjust your point of view to suit your then, current agenda. Thus, another polite fuck you, will have to suffice.
Posting Permissions
-*-
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks