Mohegan Sun Ct goes 6:5.

[Three]

ShipTheCookies,

I'm not Three, but I can answer this one: they're making precisely the same amount of money as they do when the pen is 3/6 and no one is playing.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thanks DH. Some people are just clueless. I hope he understands why his statement showed him to be clueless so he can get clued in. If you have no patrons pen is not a consideration. Arguing it is is like arguing an umbrella doesn't keep you drier in the rain because it doesn't keep you drier when it isn't raining. That's my point. Thank you for transferring the analogy to BJ for those that are not able to do it themselves.

That Ds probably still thinks that empty tables are relevant to pen discussion. If nobody plays there is no pen because the cut card is never inserted.

[Three]

"Most likely it will have no affect on patrons"

Relapse!

Don

I trust you no you stuff here. I was thinking it was a verb form. After doing word removal/replacement analysis by replacing "no" with "an" I see it is a noun. Thanks Don.

[Freightman]

Don - I presume you're highlighting text, then copying and pasting, rather than retyping it. In case you're not aware, you can highlight text, then click the Quote button that appears. This will Quote the text and indicate its source.

For example:

I wasn't, and thanks. I use my iPad almost exclusively for this site - didn't think it was available.

[DSchles]

In case you're not aware, you can highlight text, then click the Quote button that appears. This will Quote the text and indicate its source.

I'm aware now! :-) Thanks. Knew how to do it for the entire quote, but not for a partial.

Don

[Dbs6582]

Thanks DH. Some people are just clueless. I hope he understands why his statement showed him to be clueless so he can get clued in. If you have no patrons pen is not a consideration. Arguing it is is like arguing an umbrella doesn't keep you drier in the rain because it doesn't keep you drier when it isn't raining. That's my point. Thank you for transferring the analogy to BJ for those that are not able to do it themselves.

That Ds probably still thinks that empty tables are relevant to pen discussion. If nobody plays there is no pen because the cut card is never inserted.

Okay, you win Three. Pen is important. I have never said it’s not important. Obviously, if you take it to the extreme and cut out 5 decks in a 6 deck shoe this is going to waste a lot of time for the casino and player and reduce the number of hands per hour. This would make no sense for the casino or player.

You (and nobody else for that matter) has answered my question. What is the optimum pen for maximum casino profits? All I get are people saying Zender says deeper pen is better. Does this mean Zender is suggesting casinos should deal all the way down to the last card? This is maximum pen.

Since this has been studied so much, I would think there is somebody that should know the exact pen percentage for maximum profits, while still protecting the game somewhat from counters. This is what casinos are interested in...maximizing profits.

I’m standing by my original belief. The main way pen helps a casino is by reducing labor costs. The casino is able to deliver more hands per hour with fewer dealers. I don’t believe pen in and of itself has much impact on increasing demand. From what I can tell at all the casinos I go to there is already plenty of supply of bj for anybody who wants to play.

[BoSox]

Okay, you win Three. Pen is important. I have never said it’s not important. Obviously, if you take it to the extreme and cut out 5 decks in a 6 deck shoe this is going to waste a lot of time for the casino and player and reduce the number of hands per hour. This would make no sense for the casino or player.

You (and nobody else for that matter) has answered my question. What is the optimum pen for maximum casino profits? All I get are people saying Zender says deeper pen is better. Does this mean Zender is suggesting casinos should deal all the way down to the last card? This is maximum pen.

Since this has been studied so much, I would think there is somebody that should know the exact pen percentage for maximum profits, while still protecting the game somewhat from counters. This is what casinos are interested in...maximizing profits.

I’m standing by my original belief. The main way pen helps a casino is by reducing labor costs. The casino is able to deliver more hands per hour with fewer dealers. I don’t believe pen in and of itself has much impact on increasing demand. From what I can tell at all the casinos I go to there is already plenty of supply of bj for anybody who wants to play.

Dbs6582, In the last two weeks you have accomplished something that you should NOT be proud of.
You have turned I don't know how many threads and post involving one subject into full discussions involving the importance of pen into the discussion, and you will not stop. For years upon years, someone even broaching the subject would be chastised for doing it. So I hope you are proud. The next time I am scouting a room I will think of you in a very unfavorable way. Go right ahead and continue the discussion as the damage is already done. You may be not only the last member playing blackjack, but you just might be the last remaining member on the board.

[21forme]

I'm aware now! :-) Thanks. Knew how to do it for the entire quote, but not for a partial.

Glad to be able to reciprocate and teach you something, though the SCORE is still very lopsided :-)

[Freightman]

Glad to be able to reciprocate and teach you something, though the SCORE is still very lopsided :-)

Great line - nicely done.

[Three]

Originally Posted by Dbs6582
Okay, you win Three. Pen is important. I have never said it’s not important. Obviously, if you take it to the extreme and cut out 5 decks in a 6 deck shoe this is going to waste a lot of time for the casino and player and reduce the number of hands per hour. This would make no sense for the casino or player.

You have got to be kidding 1 of 6 decks cut off is not deep for pen around here. It is good pen and is easily found if you know when and where to look. The deep pen is 1/2 deck cut off of 6 decks and even 1/4 decks cut off of 6 decks. A computer would do great at the two latter pen extremes but that is where my ability to play like a computer is derailed. I will not walk away from this pen but I know it will fuck me my deck estimations will be so bad. My TC will be way off for both betting and more importantly playing decisions. That means making many negative EV playing decisions. The only safe count is RC 0. The result is extreme volatility. I know if I walked at one deck left my results would be much much smoother and I would be very hard to detect. With the volatility in the last deck I am easy to spot.

What is the optimum pen for maximum casino profits?

Deal to the last card. The casino gets the most rounds per hour per table multiplied by how many tables.

All I get are people saying Zender says deeper pen is better. Does this mean Zender is suggesting casinos should deal all the way down to the last card? This is maximum pen.

I think he says cut to a quarter to half deck cut off. The casinos that use the Zender model do that and it makes protecting their games very easy. Counters are way too obvious when playing what is usually behind the cut card. My team has discussed how what should be a windfall for counters ends up just chewing them up and why. I don't want to educate casinos but there are reasons for this.

Since this has been studied so much, I would think there is somebody that should know the exact pen percentage for maximum profits, while still protecting the game somewhat from counters. This is what casinos are interested in...maximizing profits.

It's very simple. The most rounds per hour dealt is the most profitable. Deep pen is just one way to increase the number of rounds dealt per hour. There are others but increased pen is the most certain and easiest way to increase rounds per hour at every table. A casino profit if everyone played perfect BS would be house edge times average bet bet round on the table times the number of rounds per hour. Obviously ploppies are almost all of their clients and they as a group play to a house edge 3 or 4 times higher than the HE for BJ. There are some card counters, many will lose money but some will be dedicated enough to be winners. As a group card counters will eat a little into the 3 or 4 times HE the casino will have on total money bet but the casino will still net much higher than the games theoretical HE. In order to be certain a change will net a profit to the variables in the equation (HE, total bet, and rounds per hour) it must not affect any of the other two variables negatively. The only one that fits that bill is increasing rounds per hour which is most easily and certainly done by increasing the number of rounds dealt between shuffles. So the deeper the pen the better for the casino.

The main way pen helps a casino is by reducing labor costs. The casino is able to deliver more hands per hour with fewer dealers. I don’t believe pen in and of itself has much impact on increasing demand.

If the tables are not full opening more tables shouldn't increase the number of players. All it does is increase cost. You have to pay a dealer and if you need to open another pit the rest of the pit staff. But no matter what the table situation is dealing more rounds per hour at each table will increase profit. If you can't understand that you know nothing about AP play or maximizing profits for the casino.

Watch what casinos do. When the are not many players they don't open more tables to increase demand that is not how you increase demand. Since supply is one hand of BJ played and the number of players that walk through your door to play BJ is not affected by anything in the casino it lowers the limits so more people will be willing to play BJ. When more people come in they open more tables. Eventually they don't want to open more tables so they raise the table minimum. Later they open even more tables. Shift changes are made so more staff are scheduled to show up a bit before increased number of players want to play BJ. Some of the tables will get even higher minimums and a lot more tables will open. They are doing what they can to maximize the total bet made to increase profits and keep the dealers scheduled to deal busy with the highest amount of bets that will still keep the table packed. They could have just let the minimum down and let low level players play all day but they don't. They don't make enough money off of them to pay extra dealers. They just have lower limits in dead times to make some money while keeping tables open in case relatively bigger players want to play. The casinos that make the most per table have the most rounds per hour. You can do this by eliminating side bets or increasing pen or getting the dealer to deal faster. Too many people are there just to play side bets and it is tough to get dealers to deal faster. Sometimes game speed is not being limited by dealer speed. Some casinos are smart enough to have some BJ games that don't have side bets and some that have side bets so they can greatly increase game speed on the players that don't play the side bets while having most of their tables be dealt with the side bet. The profit equation is affected by pen because pen is independent of other variable in the equation. Pen increases game speed and is the only way to increase game speed without any chance of adversely affecting the other variables. To a casino deeper pen always means higher profits.

Long Run Casino Profits = (average total bet per round) times (the average House Edge) times (number of rounds dealt per hour)

A casino is working perfectly if they can meet the demand of having every player that showed up to play BJ find a place to play with no wait. The fewer dealers it takes to do so minimizes costs. Having to open another pit to do this is very expensive way to open 1 more table so being able to open more tables without opening more pits is an important aspect of casino geography that most casinos overlook. Getting the players that show up to bet the most or manage limits so the tables that can be opened with the dealers and number of pits available are full and the minimums are higher increases average total bet per round. It might be better to have more money bet per shoe while having an empty spot or two for any new players that show up at a higher limit table than having a full table at a lower limit. Dealing more rounds per hour increases supply. It doesn't matter how you accomplish it but deeper pen will increase the number of rounds per hour dealt at every table that is in use. If you know anything about business a global increase in profits is better than the same percentage increase in profits but only for certain areas.

[Dbs6582]

Dbs6582, In the last two weeks you have accomplished something that you should NOT be proud of.
You have turned I don't know how many threads and post involving one subject into full discussions involving the importance of pen into the discussion, and you will not stop. For years upon years, someone even broaching the subject would be chastised for doing it. So I hope you are proud. The next time I am scouting a room I will think of you in a very unfavorable way. Go right ahead and continue the discussion as the damage is already done. You may be not only the last member playing blackjack, but you just might be the last remaining member on the board.

What; are you serious? This discussion has been going on for at least 50 years and you think discusing it on this forum is going to matter? In fact, if you study bj history, this debate has been going on before Ed Thorp’s book. Even before the 60s, casinos and APs knew there were times (when the deck was rich in tens and aces) that it favored the player. Even in the 50s there were casinos that shuffled up early when the dealer knew the deck was rich in high cards. This is nothing new.

As as far as the value of pen to the casino and AP, there is nothing new being discussed here. Casinos know it’s in their interest to deal further down the deck (so each dealer can generate more hands per hour) but they also know this will give counters more information. Again, this has been known forever, even before the 60s. You need to study bj history.

Casinos would obviously like to go to CSM. This accomplishing everything they want...it stops counters and generates the most hands per hour since there is no shuffling. Why don’t casinos do this? Because most people don’t like playing these games. The market let’s casinos know what they can get away from.

Each casino has different policies on how they address pen. There is nothing on this forum that is going to change their mind. The large ones not only use consultants, but they also do their own studies on this. They use data to see where the cut card needs to be to generate the most revenue, and reduce their labor costs. The smaller casinos just wing it. A lot goes into these decisions at the larger casinos. Reading some forum is not going to change how they operate. The paranoid on this forum is shocking.

Btw, if any casino person would be on this board, they would just think I’m stupid and don’t know what I was talking about since that’s what everybody here says. Are you now saying what I’m saying makes sense? Were Stealth’s calculations on pen and casino profits a smoke screen to fool the casinos? Did he really know all the time that what he was doing made no sense. Did he really think casinos would change how they operate based on his calculations? Btw, there are a lot of people who have done similar calculations. GWAE had an MBA student from UNLV who did his thesis on this. Through calculations he showed how casinos could make millions more by increasing pen. His calculations also assumed more supply meant there would be more demand. I’m sure these calculations have been done hundreds of times and shown to casinos.

If all this is true, why hasn’t this fooled the casinos and caused them to increase their pen? I don’t see things improving? In fact, everybody on this forum says the situation for APs have got worse with time. This can’t be due to me since I’ve only been on forums for less than a year. Personally, I think what is happening is there are more and more part time counters due to all the internet bj sites. I know at my local casinos I used to only spot one or two a year. Now I see one or two a weekend. I know Stealth doesn’t believe I’m capable of identifying a counter so he probably won’t believe this. If you want to know why the games are getting worse, I think it’s because of the new crop of young counters I’m seeing more and more. If you want to blame me, go ahead. Everybody needs a scapegoat. I’m good with being yours.

[Dbs6582]

You have got to be kidding 1 of 6 decks cut off is not deep for pen around here. It is good pen and is easily found if you know when and where to look. The deep pen is 1/2 deck cut off of 6 decks and even 1/4 decks cut off of 6 decks. A computer would do great at the two latter pen extremes but that is where my ability to play like a computer is derailed. I will not walk away from this pen but I know it will fuck me my deck estimations will be so bad. My TC will be way off for both betting and more importantly playing decisions. That means making many negative EV playing decisions. The only safe count is RC 0. The result is extreme volatility. I know if I walked at one deck left my results would be much much smoother and I would be very hard to detect. With the volatility in the last deck I am easy to spot.
Deal to the last card. The casino gets the most rounds per hour per table multiplied by how many tables.
I think he says cut to a quarter to half deck cut off. The casinos that use the Zender model do that and it makes protecting their games very easy. Counters are way too obvious when playing what is usually behind the cut card. My team has discussed how what should be a windfall for counters ends up just chewing them up and why. I don't want to educate casinos but there are reasons for this.
It's very simple. The most rounds per hour dealt is the most profitable. Deep pen is just one way to increase the number of rounds dealt per hour. There are others but increased pen is the most certain and easiest way to increase rounds per hour at every table. A casino profit if everyone played perfect BS would be house edge times average bet bet round on the table times the number of rounds per hour. Obviously ploppies are almost all of their clients and they as a group play to a house edge 3 or 4 times higher than the HE for BJ. There are some card counters, many will lose money but some will be dedicated enough to be winners. As a group card counters will eat a little into the 3 or 4 times HE the casino will have on total money bet but the casino will still net much higher than the games theoretical HE. In order to be certain a change will net a profit to the variables in the equation (HE, total bet, and rounds per hour) it must not affect any of the other two variables negatively. The only one that fits that bill is increasing rounds per hour which is most easily and certainly done by increasing the number of rounds dealt between shuffles. So the deeper the pen the better for the casino.
If the tables are not full opening more tables shouldn't increase the number of players. All it does is increase cost. You have to pay a dealer and if you need to open another pit the rest of the pit staff. But no matter what the table situation is dealing more rounds per hour at each table will increase profit. If you can't understand that you know nothing about AP play or maximizing profits for the casino.

Watch what casinos do. When the are not many players they don't open more tables to increase demand that is not how you increase demand. Since supply is one hand of BJ played and the number of players that walk through your door to play BJ is not affected by anything in the casino it lowers the limits so more people will be willing to play BJ. When more people come in they open more tables. Eventually they don't want to open more tables so they raise the table minimum. Later they open even more tables. Shift changes are made so more staff are scheduled to show up a bit before increased number of players want to play BJ. Some of the tables will get even higher minimums and a lot more tables will open. They are doing what they can to maximize the total bet made to increase profits and keep the dealers scheduled to deal busy with the highest amount of bets that will still keep the table packed. They could have just let the minimum down and let low level players play all day but they don't. They don't make enough money off of them to pay extra dealers. They just have lower limits in dead times to make some money while keeping tables open in case relatively bigger players want to play. The casinos that make the most per table have the most rounds per hour. You can do this by eliminating side bets or increasing pen or getting the dealer to deal faster. Too many people are there just to play side bets and it is tough to get dealers to deal faster. Sometimes game speed is not being limited by dealer speed. Some casinos are smart enough to have some BJ games that don't have side bets and some that have side bets so they can greatly increase game speed on the players that don't play the side bets while having most of their tables be dealt with the side bet. The profit equation is affected by pen because pen is independent of other variable in the equation. Pen increases game speed and is the only way to increase game speed without any chance of adversely affecting the other variables. To a casino deeper pen always means higher profits.

Long Run Casino Profits = (average total bet per round) times (the average House Edge) times (number of rounds dealt per hour)

A casino is working perfectly if they can meet the demand of having every player that showed up to play BJ find a place to play with no wait. The fewer dealers it takes to do so minimizes costs. Having to open another pit to do this is very expensive way to open 1 more table so being able to open more tables without opening more pits is an important aspect of casino geography that most casinos overlook. Getting the players that show up to bet the most or manage limits so the tables that can be opened with the dealers and number of pits available are full and the minimums are higher increases average total bet per round. It might be better to have more money bet per shoe while having an empty spot or two for any new players that show up at a higher limit table than having a full table at a lower limit. Dealing more rounds per hour increases supply. It doesn't matter how you accomplish it but deeper pen will increase the number of rounds per hour dealt at every table that is in use. If you know anything about business a global increase in profits is better than the same percentage increase in profits but only for certain areas.

Great post Three! I went through it twice and I must say I pretty much agree with everything you said. It was well stated! I agree that deep pen is good for casinos because it makes it easy to catch counters. I know that’s how I’ve identified a lot of them. Now you might have Bosox all bothered because he thinks this stuff is top secret and casinos don’t know about it. He scolded me because I brought up pen and he didn’t think the casinos knew about it.

Sometimes when I read your posts, I wonder what we’re even arguing about. My main point all along had nothing much to do with what you discussed in this post (which was excellent!). It’s that caisnos can’t magically generate demand just by increasing pen. I think that’s what Stealth was tying to show with his calculations. But now I’m wondering if this was just a smoke screen to fool the caisnos. After Bosox post, I’m confused on what APs believe about pen. Is everything I’ve read in bj books just a smoke screen to fool casinos?

[Three]

It’s that caisnos can’t magically generate demand just by increasing pen.

No, increasing hands dealt per hour increases supply moved per hour. Other business models may view this as demand but in a casino the only way to increase demand is to get more customers to patronize your casino, or make sure the ones that come to play but can't are accommodated before they leave. Of course if they could play as soon as they gets there that would be an even bigger increase in demand. The casinos that have the highest per table BJ revenue try to make sure no players, particularly high bet players ever show up and have to wait to be able to play at any popular game. They want to be able to accommodate as many people as may show up at once without making them wait for more tables to open. Table games managers at these casinos have told me that at any time they want to be able to accommodate 12 new players walking through the door at the same time. That means having 2 more tables open then are needed to accommodate all the current players playing at all hours of the day. If players have to wait or can't play it trains the bigger players that would hate to be made to wait to go to another casino rather than the ones that think the way to make more money is to barely have enough tables open for the patron demand. I don't know why they think saving at most $15 per hour on one or two dealers' salaries is how the casino will increase profits. The first guy that shows up and leaves because he can't or doesn't want to wait costs them more than they save. Then people get trained to go to other casinos first and only go to your casino if they can't play there. That costs you a hell of a lot of money.

[paymypush]

The decimation of blackjack continues at Mohegan Sun. The Casino of the Wind is now 6:5. That's 8 more tables. There is a small pit with only one blackjack table in the Sky Casino and that is 6:5. That's 29 and counting. (pun intended). Another 6:5 pit is planned for the Winter Casino.

The high limit rooms are now 8 decks but remain S17.

Dealers have been told to cut 7/8 decks on all tables but old habits die hard.

Dealers and management have drunk the Kool-Aid. It's disgusting watching them misrepresent this arberation to the unsuspecting players. They're not all clueless though. My very small sample size shows business already dropping off.