A recreational counter on track..

[ZeeBabar]

Zee
You're heading for a fall. I've commented on this before. Your expense ratio is 43% of gross revenue. Your expense per hour is a full 20% higher than when you last brought up this subject - now 24.56 per hour played. Couple of bad trips, you'll be in the shitter, lamenting the bad run of cards. Expenses are pretty linear. Revenue, not necessarily so, though it is in theory.

I've told you before to up your spread which will create better gross margin, which will give you a better multiple of earnings to expense, which will help cushion those bad trips. Last year was not particularly good for me, though I doubled your gross on about half the hours. This year, I'm at half your hours with slightly over 4x the revenue, with and expense factor a full 1/3 less than yours - though expense per hour is roughly $4.00 per hour more - all equating to about 6.6%.

Risk is a necessity. Intelligent risk will drive you forward. Of course you can do better - you simply choose not to.

You are correct. I made too many trips to Law Vegas (6), barely broke even cause I lost $3400 in one trip. I am playing more via driving trips and locally. Reducing expenses is a must.

[Dbs6582]

Sigh... I thought I mentioned this before, but I’ll say it again. I know Joe748 personally. I’ve met him numerous times. I’ve personally seen his OSN profile... it’s as long as a Steven King novel. I’ve seen him play. Joe748 is absolutely not a casino spy. I’m not sure how else I could word it. He doesn’t even post on forums anymore! What could possibly be he motive?!? The only reason he made an appearance here was to respond to the GWAE post I made.

And yes, I know you have a hard time believing his story. I’ve only seen you mention it a hundred times.

I get it and I believe his story to a point. I don’t believe he earned $400,000 in his first year but I believe the rest of it. Since Joe played by himself in his first year only Joe knows how much he really made. Just because you vouch for him, doesn’t make it so. Many people vouched for Bernie Madoff and they were wrong. I’m not comparing Joe with Bernie. I’m just making a point, only Joe and God knows what Joe made.

You’re missing my bigger point. If there is a casinos spy, it would be someone like Joe748. This is the message casinos want people to hear...bj is easy to beat; anybody can win hundreds of thousands immediately. This is the message that will generate millions for the casinos.

Btw, do you think he was able to play 700 rounds per hour? Many people on this forum questioned this too. I wasn’t the only one who questioned portions of his story. I think it was mostly true with some stories exaggerated. Some people do this...I have friends that do this.

[Freightman]

You are correct. I made too many trips to Law Vegas (6), barely broke even cause I lost $3400 in one trip. I am playing more via driving trips and locally. Reducing expenses is a must.

Zee
You need to LISTEN.
Expenses are not your PROBLEM. Your PROBLEM is betting levels not sufficient to give you a sufficient multiple of winnings over expense. Reread my initial response. Increase your bet levels to increase your margins. You can afford it.

[ZeeBabar]

Zee
You need to LISTEN.
Expenses are not your PROBLEM. Your PROBLEM is betting levels not sufficient to give you a sufficient multiple of winnings over expense. Reread my initial response. Increase your bet levels to increase your margins. You can afford it.

Yes. I understand but I need to do both, Taking 3 day trips to Law Vegas with $500+ expense is not worth it. Moreover, because of OS N and countermeasures at local DD games, I mostly play 6 deck games in disguise with a spread of 2 x $10 to 2 x $90 and short session. However, on driving trips nearby, will take your advice.

[lij45o6]

Yes. I understand but I need to do both, Taking 3 day trips to Law Vegas with $500+ expense is not worth it. Moreover, because of OS N and countermeasures at local DD games, I mostly play 6 deck games in disguise with a spread of 2 x $10 to 2 x $90 and short session. However, on driving trips nearby, will take your advice.

Consider a higher spread. I assume you are still using Hi-Lo?

Also, if your 500 USD expensed are far greater than the theoretical EV you generate, maybe it is not the expenses?

[lij45o6]

I get it and I believe his story to a point. I don’t believe he earned $400,000 in his first year but I believe the rest of it. Since Joe played by himself in his first year only Joe knows how much he really made. Just because you vouch for him, doesn’t make it so. Many people vouched for Bernie Madoff and they were wrong. I’m not comparing Joe with Bernie. I’m just making a point, only Joe and God knows what Joe made.

You’re missing my bigger point. If there is a casinos spy, it would be someone like Joe748. This is the message casinos want people to hear...bj is easy to beat; anybody can win hundreds of thousands immediately. This is the message that will generate millions for the casinos.

Btw, do you think he was able to play 700 rounds per hour? Many people on this forum questioned this too. I wasn’t the only one who questioned portions of his story. I think it was mostly true with some stories exaggerated. Some people do this...I have friends that do this.

If there were a casino spy, they would most likely *NOT* be posting useless drivel on a BJ forum. Such action are unwarranted as many AP's are seasoned to smell casino-grade shit a mile away.

The spies who may be on here are looking for weak AP's who are:

1.) Giving tells as to their identity
2.) Giving away sacred and secret +EV action/situations
3.) Seeing if their joint is under heavy attack.

I don't know who you are, but from what I can tell that there is little that you may be aware of. How long have you been counting for (reasonablly)?

[Midwest Player]

I am a recreational counter (if I call myself an AP, some will howl!) who uses HiLO, I-18 plus a couple, plays mostly $25 min DD (now 65%, used to be higher) and 35% red chipping ($10 min tables), spreading 1-6 on DD (play all), 2 x $10 to 2 x $90 on 6D but wonging out at TC-2. My goal is $10k a year, playing roughly 30 hours a month. I dont understand much or the stuff (N-score, Score, etc., etc.), dont use software, dont practice, sometimes double for less, never double A,8, make other mistakes. This is my 4th year. My worst year, I lost $5k, best year I won $28k (calender year).

I just tallied up my year to date on this date, 5/31. That is, 5 months.

So far, won $9255 with expenses $3980 (air/gas, room/food). I spent 162 hours at the tables. My hourly rate after deducting expenses is a bit over $32 per hour. Given that I am not a pro, actually enjoy the casino environment and have time on my hand, this is acceptable. I have cut back on DD and have become more conservative after being placed on OSN and not wanting to lose all the local places

I can do better but I am my worst enemy. I often balk at putting out more than $200 on any one hand (despite a $64k BR). I seem to not want to risk going below $60k BR.

I dont know why I am posting this but often I have learned from the ridicule I receive, especially when the ridicule is mixed in with suggestions.

Zee, why don't you double A8 vs 6? It is basic strategy in H17 games. At least do it in positive counts.

So far this year I have only 88 hours of play. On an hourly basis I'm doing worse than last year, but I won on 14 of the 15 times I played. My biggest win so far this year is 3 times as big as my one loss.

[Dbs6582]

If there were a casino spy, they would most likely *NOT* be posting useless drivel on a BJ forum. Such action are unwarranted as many AP's are seasoned to smell casino-grade shit a mile away.

The spies who may be on here are looking for weak AP's who are:

1.) Giving tells as to their identity
2.) Giving away sacred and secret +EV action/situations
3.) Seeing if their joint is under heavy attack.

I don't know who you are, but from what I can tell that there is little that you may be aware of. How long have you been counting for (reasonablly)?

Dogman_1234, I’ve been counting (not playing) for 20 years. I’ve lived in many parts of the country, from Seattle to Stanford, CT, and in between. I’ve played on the east coast at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun and Atlantic City, although not very much because I hated their games and got bored. Ive played in the south, Midwest, and in Vegas, but not very much. I’ve played with other counters I’ve met on various forums and while playing. I’ve played with several part time APs who are current college professors. We notice we’re counters at the table and then discussed what we’re doing in the bathroom, when we happened to take our bathroom breaks at the same time. Yes, there are several college professors out there doing this.

Since I enjoy blackjack, I’ve also read at least 25 blackjack books. I’m probably much more aware of the state of blackjack and how casinos operate than the majority of APs.

In my 20 years playing, I’ve only seen one counter backed off or barred, and that was me. I’ve been backed off once and barred once. So if there is this epidemic of counters being backed off in casino’s across United States, I haven’t seen it. I’m surprised this is such a big topic in the AP community. It makes me think the casinos are getting it right...that they are only backing off the counters that are impacting their bottom line.

Freightman calls me Mr. Contrary. He probably does this since I think for myself and don’t accept everything someone says just because it’s the mainstream view. I have noticed this is the case with APs. They pretty much believe whatever one of their leaders say. When it comes to the math of the game there should be no debate. The math is what it is. When it comes to how “to get away with it”, how we treat our fellowman, how we treat the casinos, etc, this is up to debate. There is no right or wrong answer here. I understand the mainstream AP view on these things; mine is a little different. In some cummunites a diversity of opinions is accepted. In the AP community, it appears to be ridiculed.

The only reason the casino spy idea came up is because of Freightman and Three. They thought I was a spy or I worked for a casino since I don’t think like every other AP. I’m not a spy and I don’t think Joe748 is a spy. I was just trying to make a point with Joe748, which obviously went over everyboy’s head.

I’ve said many times I don’t think casino employees are on these sites as spy’s or as trolls to try to get inside info on APs. This information is out there in other places where it’s easier to get. The paranoid in this group is quite surprising. I don’t post specifics because I don’t want other APs cutting in on my “honny pots”; it’s not because I’m worried someone from the casinos is reading it. Has this happened? Probably, but I doubt if it’s happened very often. And when it does happen, it’s probably because an AP told his casino friend about it.

So to sum it up. I’m very aware of what is going on with APs to where I could tell you excatly how some AP will respond to one of my posts. I’ve read 25 bj books so I know how APs think. It’s pretty predictable.

[refinery]

Many people vouched for Bernie Madoff and they were wrong.

How do you figure? Anyone who wasn't in on the Madoff scam was simply vouching for the fact they received the unbelievable returns that Madoff told his clients he would earn for them. They were of course correct they received those returns.

They couldn't know the returns they received came from other investors. Your analogy is stupid, even by your standards.

[Sharky]

I’m not sure why you think this is not achievable.... You also never asked him what stakes he was playing too.

and what do you think "unit & spread?" means?

[BoSox]

Freightman calls me Mr. Contrary. He probably does this since I think for myself and don’t accept everything someone says just because it’s the mainstream view. I have noticed this is the case with APs. They pretty much believe whatever one of their leaders say.

If you think everyone thinks exactly the same around here you are sadly mistaken. I cannot count the number of differing views and debates "actually clashes" that have gone on over the last few years. Very few members need or recognize anyone as a leader, some members are highly respected and that is as far as it goes. The board is a very diverse group whose experiences from different locations played, opportunities available, educations, as well as part-timers, to full-time pros and everything in between.

So to sum it up. I’m very aware of what is going on with APs to where I could tell you excatly how some AP will respond to one of my posts. I’ve read 25 bj books so I know how APs think. It’s pretty predictable.

You have read 25 bj books good for you. Although, it is not about the quantity but the QUALITY of the books you have read. Equally important "at the very least" is the training and knowledge learned while playing the game through real-life experience, basically everything you cannot learn in books.

[ZeeBabar]

Dogman_1234, I’ve been counting (not playing) for 20 years. I’ve lived in many parts of the country, from Seattle to Stanford, CT, and in between. I’ve played on the east coast at Foxwoods and Mohegan Sun and Atlantic City, although not very much because I hated their games and got bored. Ive played in the south, Midwest, and in Vegas, but not very much. I’ve played with other counters I’ve met on various forums and while playing. I’ve played with several part time APs who are current college professors. We notice we’re counters at the table and then discussed what we’re doing in the bathroom, when we happened to take our bathroom breaks at the same time. Yes, there are several college professors out there doing this.

Since I enjoy blackjack, I’ve also read at least 25 blackjack books. I’m probably much more aware of the state of blackjack and how casinos operate than the majority of APs.

In my 20 years playing, I’ve only seen one counter backed off or barred, and that was me. I’ve been backed off once and barred once. So if there is this epidemic of counters being backed off in casino’s across United States, I haven’t seen it. I’m surprised this is such a big topic in the AP community. It makes me think the casinos are getting it right...that they are only backing off the counters that are impacting their bottom line.

Freightman calls me Mr. Contrary. He probably does this since I think for myself and don’t accept everything someone says just because it’s the mainstream view. I have noticed this is the case with APs. They pretty much believe whatever one of their leaders say. When it comes to the math of the game there should be no debate. The math is what it is. When it comes to how “to get away with it”, how we treat our fellowman, how we treat the casinos, etc, this is up to debate. There is no right or wrong answer here. I understand the mainstream AP view on these things; mine is a little different. In some cummunites a diversity of opinions is accepted. In the AP community, it appears to be ridiculed.

The only reason the casino spy idea came up is because of Freightman and Three. They thought I was a spy or I worked for a casino since I don’t think like every other AP. I’m not a spy and I don’t think Joe748 is a spy. I was just trying to make a point with Joe748, which obviously went over everyboy’s head.

I’ve said many times I don’t think casino employees are on these sites as spy’s or as trolls to try to get inside info on APs. This information is out there in other places where it’s easier to get. The paranoid in this group is quite surprising. I don’t post specifics because I don’t want other APs cutting in on my “honny pots”; it’s not because I’m worried someone from the casinos is reading it. Has this happened? Probably, but I doubt if it’s happened very often. And when it does happen, it’s probably because an AP told his casino friend about it.

So to sum it up. I’m very aware of what is going on with APs to where I could tell you excatly how some AP will respond to one of my posts. I’ve read 25 bj books so I know how APs think. It’s pretty predictable.

Agree. Lots of paranoia and you do get attacked for expressing a different view than held by a few resident pros.

[Ryemo]

and what do you think "unit & spread?" means?

I see that now. You didn’t ask that the first time around when you called bullshit though.