Shuffle tracking a 1pass R&R for 5 Card Charlie. Question!

[Fringe]

Odd question would like to see if some brains have input.


6 deck. (New decks). 1 pass R&R. 2 riffles per grab. Half deck grabs. 4.5/6 pen.


Rules are pretty standard. H17. Includes surrender (ES10.) Assume a -.50% advantage, off the top, before the effect of a 5 Card Charlie rule(pays 2:1). (Player advantage 1.4%+)


While sims show a higher advantage in positive counts than negative counts. Negative counts still have considerable advantage.


In terms of shuffle tracking. Would it be a stronger play to marry two slugs of low cards, and max bet through, or still a stronger play to bring the big boys to the top?


My thinking was that if we’re playing a modified strategy for 5 Card Charlie (Stanford Wong) it would be more worthwhile to marry slugs that would produce more of these events.


Or would it be better moneywise (let’s ignore heat for the moment) to simply max bet through each shoe?


Would CV shuffle be prepared to handle something like this?


Looking forward to your responses.

[BlackJackAgain]

On games with an OTT advantage like this (especially if you think you can increase it) you usually flat-bet. Give them no reason to bar you.

Think more about whether you can decrease your visible win.

[Fringe]

Yes you’re right that’s generally how things are done. My question is more closely related to the idea of cutting small Card slugs into play. I find the idea interesting.

I’ll repeat. Let’s ignore heat for the moment.

[lessj]

If you were attentively watching every shuffle (especially a 6d), I'm certain that would bring more negative consequences (heat related) than gain in EV could possibly make up for. Depending on the stakes you're playing for, I'd guess that heat will not be as much of an issue as the shop sweating the loss. There are several creative ways to disguise these wins.

Keep in mind, these opportunities don't come every day, and it will not last forever.

[Fringe]

You are correct. ‘Attentively’ or as you imply ‘obviously’ watching a shuffle brings heat, generally. I won’t question whether or not you shuffle track, but like counting, ST, has its own ins and outs of appearing normal during the game.

This question has never been “how does one do it”, that would be a question for ‘advanced tactics’...

[refinery]

Two posts saying "ignore heat" and two responses talking about heat.

Fringe: I don't have anything to back this up, but my belief is playing for the 5 card charlie is probably the stronger play. I would probably bring the small cards up front. That said, you're going to get to them eventually, correct? If this is a long term play (as in, playing through a lot of shoes), does it really matter which course you take? You're going to hit the cards more appropriate for the 5 card charlie at some point in the shoe unless they are all behind the cut card (which they won't be, at 4.5/6).

Now, let's get back to people commenting on heat.

[lessj]

Two posts saying "ignore heat" and two responses talking about heat.

Fringe: I don't have anything to back this up, but my belief is playing for the 5 card charlie is probably the stronger play. I would probably bring the small cards up front. That said, you're going to get to them eventually, correct? If this is a long term play (as in, playing through a lot of shoes), does it really matter which course you take? You're going to hit the cards more appropriate for the 5 card charlie at some point in the shoe unless they are all behind the cut card (which they won't be, at 4.5/6).

Now, let's get back to people commenting on heat.

I would’ve given a similar response regarding the shuffle and cut, had I thought it was worth the effort

[Reign Man]

Since the sims show higher advantage in postive counts than negative counts, you'd wanna bring the big boys to the top and play more positive counts.

Whether it's a positive or negative count, make bets based on your advantage. A flat max bet is good off the top, but the count will move right?

Alternating cutting big / small cards into play based on what you see each individual shoe is a very interesting long-term strategy.

[refinery]

Since the sims show higher advantage in postive counts than negative counts, you'd wanna bring the big boys to the top and play more positive counts.

Whether it's a positive or negative count, make bets based on your advantage. A flat max bet is good off the top, but the count will move right?

Alternating cutting big / small cards into play based on what you see each individual shoe is a very interesting long-term strategy.

This is not a count game. No way.

[Fringe]

Haha appreciate the reply regarding the question Refinery

I suppose you’re right in that sense. Good point.

[BurtMacklin]

Agree - I'd just flat bet .

Personally, I disagree that you'll get a lot of heat shuffle tracking while flat betting. Also, you may want to double check that player edge if 5CC pays 2:1, that rule is better than a 1.4% impact. 5CC is ~1.4% for 1:1 payments.

On the better edge question, I would assume that it wouldn't impact the edge if you're flatting and play hole shoes.

When you sim what's your edge at various counts?