Conceptual Question for the Masters

**Nascent Norm** · 05-31-2018, 07:41 AM

I've been using CVCX for several months and now have CVData (of which the mounds of generated data is fantastic). My question is this: with my parameters, playing, and betting strategies set, CVData shows my hand winning percentage (without ties) tops 50% at TC=7 and greater. To me this should mean minimum bets at TC=7. Yet CVCX's optimum betting results (with same parameters) shows max bet starting at TC=>2. (And indeed, when I set the custom bets in CVCX to min =7, the results are horrible). It appears that I'm missing a basic concept here. Again, it seems that I should not be betting max bet until my hand percentage win rate tops 50%. What am I missing????? (BTW, I am using carriage return, not sure why my posts all run together). -NN

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 05-31-2018, 08:55 AM

You are rarely betting with a win rate > 50%.
You are ignoring the increased rate of Blackjacks
and improved results on doubles with a HIGH T.C.

You want to be Max Betting when you have a 2%
advantage. Depending on the Table Conditions and
the House Edge, that will probably be at T.C. +5 or
+6 with a simple Level One Count.

**Stealth** · 05-31-2018, 09:00 AM

You need to look at frequency of count. Generally speaking only about 12-15% of your rounds in a six deck game will be at TC+2 or greater. So, while your "edge" may increase exponentially, your opportunities are dwindling exponentially.

You sims will likely be horrible if max bet = TC+7.

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 05-31-2018, 09:13 AM

NOTE: In a BJ game with poor penetration the frequency of reaching (your) Strike Point

is LOW compared to a game with fewer decks and deeper penetration. The relationship is

perfectly linear. Learn to look for acceptable Table Conditions. The rules in effect must be

considered AFTER you know the number of decks, and most importantly what level of

penetration you can expect.

**BurtMacklin** · 05-31-2018, 10:29 AM

Zen Master has the correct answer.

In a nutshell, you need to be looking at % edge/ROI on a hand for what you're looking for.

**Gronbog** · 05-31-2018, 11:40 AM

Originally Posted by Nascent Norm

CVData shows my hand winning percentage (without ties) tops 50% at TC=7 and greater. To me this should mean minimum bets at TC=7. Yet CVCX's optimum betting results (with same parameters) shows max bet starting at TC=>2.

I think you meant maximum where you said minimum above.

The TC where CVCX will recommend your max bet depends on your spread. The bigger the spread, the more intermediate bets there will be and the higher the TC for your max bet will be.

**Phoebe** · 05-31-2018, 12:14 PM

Originally Posted by Nascent Norm

It appears that I'm missing a basic concept here.

Yes.
Look at https://www.blackjackincolor.com/truecount5.htm

Don, suis-je le seul à avoir compris la question ? Ou mon anglais me trahit-il ?

**Nascent Norm** · 05-31-2018, 12:29 PM

"You are ignoring the increased rate of Blackjacks and improved results on doubles with a HIGH T.C.". Thanks Zenmaster; after thinking about it, I can see how both of these are correct even when my winning hand percentage is under 50%. "I think you meant maximum where you said minimum above." Thanks Gronbog, you are exactly correct, that was a typo. "Don, suis-je le seul à avoir compris la question ? Ou mon anglais me trahit-il ? " Thanks Phoebe for the link, I will check it out. Meanwhile, me no speako la french. -NN

**Phoebe** · 05-31-2018, 12:43 PM

I said "Was I am the only to understood the question ?"
I mean that IMO all other answers are right but don't answer your question.

Only at +7, you win more hands that you lose.
That what you ignored and why you asked the question.

Second sentence in French is to said that I really could had misunderstood your question.