Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
In sports betting the good opportunities are from exploiting misperceptions of the public. The line is driven by the public perception to maximize the profits for the book.
I disagree.
Misperceptions of the general public move lines and generate opportunities in big events.
A perfect example of that was the Mayweather McGregor fight.
Another excellent example was the QF match between Ireland and Argentina in the last Rugby World Cup (probably one of the worst conceived lines in sport betting history).
Although it is true that those particular bets are opportunities, the number of plays are going to be very few.
People who truly make a living from sport betting need to make many bets (in my case in average I have between 80-100 plays per week, depeding on the number of tournaments being played). Those bets are almost always made in markets (or matches) that have very little line movement.

Good opportunities dont come from what you said (those are isolated events) they come from developing a model or a betting thesis that will allow you to determine winning probabilities that can consistently analyze every single match and allow to determine when a line has value and when it doesnt.
Only then you will have a system that will allow you to analyze a massive amount of events and give you a consistant long term winning strategy that actually generates a fluid and positive cash flow.
Then there's sport betting exchanges, which is a whole different thing.