one2six operating with the cover open

[Tassie]

i uploaded a video, if anyone is interested.

https://youtu.be/FgsrCvNDPfM

Could you please run an experiment if you dont know the answer to this query!

When you set the CSM for 4 or 5 decks - 208 or 260 cards are fed into CSM. But notice that CSMs already have many more slots and can accommodate 380 cards maximum.

Does it mean that the lower the number of decks in the CSM, the more dispersed the cards always are? For example, with 4 decks (208 cards), we have 380-208 = 172 empty spaces among all slots. So 208 cards always have 380 places to travel to.

Or is there a way to shrink or block some of those slots?

[deviru]

Could you please run an experiment if you dont know the answer to this query!

When you set the CSM for 4 or 5 decks - 208 or 260 cards are fed into CSM. But notice that CSMs already have many more slots and can accommodate 380 cards maximum.

Does it mean that the lower the number of decks in the CSM, the more dispersed the cards always are? For example, with 4 decks (208 cards), we have 380-208 = 172 empty spaces among all slots. So 208 cards always have 380 places to travel to.

Or is there a way to shrink or block some of those slots?

i have tried with 4 deck mode and the cards will be more dispersed with less deck because they have more spaces. i dont think there is a way to shrink or block any slot.

[BlackjackFeign]

Thank you for sharing this with us deviru.

[Bushie]

Someone has already done it (scroll through Francis Salmon's posts on bj21)

https://bj21.com/boards/free/sub_boa...o-6-csm?page=2

Interesting.

It doesn't matter whether they put in new decks or not.

It's not that. It's just that I've never seen the process of the cards being put into a CSM. Which is why I wondered if they're just left in there the entire time.

If 38 slots, each having 10 cards maximum, and dropping 15-20 cards on chute every round, what does it mean?

That means roughly 2 slots get emptied every round, and when these 15-20 cards are played and discarded back into the shuffler, there are roughly 4 slots that are empty. Rest 32-34 slots are entirely or mostly full. This means that discards only go to 4-5 slots whenever other slots are full. This seems to be happening not-so-rarely. Hence there is an exploitable latency.

Secondly, it is indeed beneficial to casinos to deal 2-3 decks. Why? If 2 decks are in discards, more slots are empty in CSM machine. So when these discards have more slots to go to into, more randomisation is achieved.

My point is, CSMs are exploitable from multiple pronges: Deal too less cards, you have less of complete randomisation in next rounds and more 'windowed counts' for APs - all because only few slots are active for shuffling in next rounds. Deal too many cards, APs get higher counts, but more randomisation achieved for next rounds because half empty CSMs would have more slots empty and cards would get distributed more evenly after 2 decks of discards being pushed back into 20-30 slots.

For 6D it's 312 cards, or 8.21 cards per slot when all 38 slots are full. If it fills up each slot with 10 cards then it's 31.2 full slots with 6 empty and 1 slot with 8 cards.

The crux of what I'm thinking is this; at what point are the discards cycled to to the buffer to be played again? If they're out of play/the buffer for at least the folllowing two rounds there might be an advantage to be had i.e if you could spread the entire table, say 7 spots with each spot consuming 2.8 cards on average, for two rounds - (2.8*7)*2 = 39.2 cards or 75.38% of a 52 card deck. This would essentially be the penetration for the following 2 rounds only. A slug of low cards examined over the two rounds could well push the TC to +2 with a 5.2462/6 "penetration" and thus a potential advantage depending on the HE. Then going to a one-spot bet with a sizeable spread for two rounds and repeating the whole process.

Please correct me if I'm wrong and going on a completely irrelevant/incorrect tangent.

Have you visited CC last weekend?

Not yet but I hope to soon. I was wondering if you had. Part of me wants to call and ask but I know that's bad for heat.

[Tassie]

For 6D it's 312 cards, or 8.21 cards per slot when all 38 slots are full. If it fills up each slot with 10 cards then it's 31.2 full slots with 6 empty and 1 slot with 8 cards.

This is precisely why I am yet not too excited. Please go through my previous comment.

The crux of what I'm thinking is this; at what point are the discards cycled to to the buffer to be played again? If they're out of play/the buffer for at least the folllowing two rounds there might be an advantage to be had i.e if you could spread the entire table, say 7 spots with each spot consuming 2.8 cards on average, for two rounds - (2.8*7)*2 = 39.2 cards or 75.38% of a 52 card deck. This would essentially be the penetration for the following 2 rounds only. A slug of low cards examined over the two rounds could well push the TC to +2 with a 5.2462/6 "penetration" and thus a potential advantage depending on the HE. Then going to a one-spot bet with a sizeable spread for two rounds and repeating the whole process.

Please correct me if I'm wrong and going on a completely irrelevant/incorrect tangent.

This point is partially similar to Stephen How's methodology of "window count". The problem with any such CSM counting method is that an advantage of 0.1-0.4? occurs only 8-10? of times. So you need 100K to win 5 $/hour to be able to spread 7 spots with large bets. It is not that CSMs are not countable, it is just that counting 1-2-6 is a big waste of time where you also don't learn anything new.

Even with CSMs, if any advantage of 1? or more to be had, it must be achieved with a more advanced methods similar to what I have been discussing.

Not yet but I hope to soon. I was wondering if you had. Part of me wants to call and ask but I know that's bad for heat.

CC would be worth visiting albeit with the anticipation of finding CSMs. I don't see why CC would have any shoe games when WP is fully CSMs.

[Tassie]

i have tried with 4 deck mode and the cards will be more dispersed with less deck because they have more spaces. i dont think there is a way to shrink or block any slot.

Thanks a lot, deviru.

Now we have both hypothetical and practical information for better/accurate analysis.

Below are few reasons as to why (or why not) CSMs are profitable to gain an advantage of 1? or more.

CSM Basic Design: There are 38 slots on the spinning wheel. Each slot contain a maximum of 10 cards. So we have 380 (38x10) card-slots - at all times.

6-deck CSM: We insert six decks, 312 cards (52x6), and fill every slot fully. First slot gets 10 cards, second slot gets another 10 cards, and so on. So at the end of this filling process, 31 slots are entirely full (31 slots x 10 cards = 310). The 32nd slot has 2 cards. This means: 31 slots are full, 1 slot is partially full with 2 cards, and 6 slots are fully empty.

Before the first round, 2 full slots (20 cards) are emptied into the chute. So now we have 8 slots empty altogether in the machine. Next if we memorise 20 played cards and insert these 20 discards back to the CSM, these cards have 8 empty slots and 1 partially empty slot (with 2 cards) to go into.

As you see, even in this simpler chronological feeding process, 20 cards have almost 9 slots to be inserted into. If we use 2- or 4-decks, there are even more emptier slots after each round and all 20-30 discards can potentially go into 10-15 separate slots thereby breaking our slug sequence (almost) entirely. Obviously, someone from Shuffle Master has already thought about sequencing and slug tracking.

However, whereas 6 decks are involved, there may be still (in)frequent opportunities to seek out. You have to be a good listener. Listen to various patterns of sound when wheel moves faster or slower and in which direction does it move frequently. If the wheel moves faster in one direction, the emptier slots are not adjacent and discards are being spread throughout as opposed to being thrown in a few slots. If the wheel moves slowly, then empty slots may be close to one another. If empty slots are adjacent and if you could make out that wheel is hovering over these adjacent slots repeatedly and in an occilating manner, we have a situation I described in my previous comments. That is, 20 discards that we have memorised are being inserted into fewer slots.

The key is to be able to differentiate a sound where the wheels moves slowly in an occilating fashion as if it is stuck around 3-4 slots. Whenever we can make out that our 15-20 discards have gone into no more than 4 or 5 slot, we have an opportunity.

So a lot of work in general - memorising slugs, listening to sounds, making out consistent patterns and various estimates in your head, and so on. But those who are happily married would have more patience to listen for longer hours.

[Tassie]

Hi deviru,

This poster, Francis Salmon, has posted his observations that are similar to yours. He also claimed that a given slot must contain minimum of 7 cards in order to be loaded into the chute. This makes sense for 6-decks, but 4-decks may have too many slots with 6 cards or less.

Did you observe something similar to his claim on 4-decks as well?

Below is the the thread where his comment is located.
https://bj21.com/boards/free/sub_boa...ics/1-to-6-csm

[Norm]

The software changes from time to time. When I simmed this some years back, the slot size was 10 cards and the min cards in a slot for withdrawal was 8. There were 38 slots in that model. At one time, when fewer decks were used, fewer slots were used. The slots that were used were in an arc.

Tassie, it looks like you are doing something to accidentally delete your posts.

[Three]

That means roughly 2 slots get emptied every round, and when these 15-20 cards are played and discarded back into the shuffler, there are roughly 4 slots that are empty. Rest 32-34 slots are entirely or mostly full. This means that discards only go to 4-5 slots whenever other slots are full. This seems to be happening not-so-rarely. Hence there is an exploitable latency.

You are assuming there are 6 decks in the CSM. 6 decks equals 312 cards. Subtract at least the 10 to 20 cards in the nose and you have 292 to 302 cards in the internal wheels at all times. Assuming 32 to 34 trays to hold these cards, 32 trays can hold up to 320 cards and 34 trays 340 cards. So you load 15 to 20 cards into the CSM at a time, which reduces the cards in the non-empty trays to 272 to 287. There are from 2 empty trays with room for 53 to 68 cards in the non-empty trays to 4 empty trays and with room for 33 to 48 cards in the non-empty trays. You can do the where things can go from there.

i have tried with 4 deck mode and the cards will be more dispersed with less deck because they have more spaces. i dont think there is a way to shrink or block any slot.

Onetosix means it can use one deck. Obviously if a tray would still need 7 cards to be loaded in the nose the most trays would not be receiving cards. So either the number of cards required to be loaded into the nose varies by number of decks used, or the number of trays used varies by the number of decks used, or both.

The crux of what I'm thinking is this; at what point are the discards cycled to to the buffer to be played again? If they're out of play/the buffer for at least the folllowing two rounds there might be an advantage to be had i.e if you could spread the entire table, say 7 spots with each spot consuming 2.8 cards on average, for two rounds - (2.8*7)*2 = 39.2 cards or 75.38% of a 52 card deck. This would essentially be the penetration for the following 2 rounds only. A slug of low cards examined over the two rounds could well push the TC to +2 with a 5.2462/6 "penetration" and thus a potential advantage depending on the HE. Then going to a one-spot bet with a sizeable spread for two rounds and repeating the whole process.

It seems to me if you see a lot of one rank in a round or two consecutive rounds, that rank will be less likely to be dealt for a few rounds and then more likely to be dealt for a few rounds (assuming a full table). Of course this depends on the number of spots being played.

[Tassie]

The software changes from time to time. When I simmed this some years back, the slot size was 10 cards and the min cards in a slot for withdrawal was 8. There were 38 slots in that model. At one time, when fewer decks were used, fewer slots were used. The slots that were used were in an arc.

Makes sense. Even for a given version, this withdrawal number could be set up slightly different for each number of decks.

Tassie, it looks like you are doing something to accidentally delete your posts.

I think when I try to edit a post especially if that post is just saved/edited using my smartphone, that whole post often gets deleted.

[Norm]

Are you using TapaTalk?

[Tassie]

You are assuming there are 6 decks in the CSM. 6 decks equals 312 cards. Subtract at least the 10 to 20 cards in the nose and you have 292 to 302 cards in the internal wheels at all times. Assuming 32 to 34 trays to hold these cards, 32 trays can hold up to 320 cards and 34 trays 340 cards. So you load 15 to 20 cards into the CSM at a time, which reduces the cards in the non-empty trays to 272 to 287. There are from 2 empty trays with room for 53 to 68 cards in the non-empty trays to 4 empty trays and with room for 33 to 48 cards in the non-empty trays. You can do the where things can go from there.

I think I have much clearer idea now. In some of my early comments, I was habitually assuming the usual 416 or 384 figure which is for 8D BJ and 8D Pontoon respectively. That wrong assumption led to a false idea that 38-40 in CSM slots are about same size as the total number of decks inserted (416 or 384 cards).

That's not the case. And with 4-decks there are 380 spaces (38 slots with 10 cards each) for only 208 cards.

Suppose, there were 208 spaces for 208 cards and 20 discards would be used in the first round, we would have known that these cards were going to go to fewer number of slots simply because there were very few empty slots to begin with.

On the contrary, when there are too many empty slots to begin with for a lower number of decks (208 cards against 380 empty slot spaces), then any 20-30 discards have higher chance of dispersion into many more empty and half-empty slots. That's no good for an ace or slug tracking.

[Tassie]

Are you using TapaTalk?

Not yet. I would have to download now.