16v10 at TC=0: Hit or Stand Confusion. Here is Why…

[Three]

The point has nothing to do with the ability of the AP. But everything to do with the Sim results. So since you are throwing out ill 18 item #2.

Let me explain a little more as it went right over your head. The BS is just barely to stand with this hand. Index plays are deviations from basic strategy. You could use basic strategy to stand and it would cost you very little.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/black...dix/9/6dh17r4/

Matchup.......Stand..........Hit........double.... ..frequency
10,6v10 -0.540954 -0.534676 -1.069351 0.01342288
9,7v10 -0.536809 -0.535392 -1.070784 0.00339104

As you can see this is among the closest calls for what is basic strategy. Hitting barely beats standing.

Making the I18 is a function of 3 things, the frequency of the matchup, the gain in EV after the index is exceeded and the size of the bet you have out when making the deviation. The reason it is in the I18 is mostly because every ramped bet you make hitting is the wrong play so you make the deviation with every non-mimmum bet you make. In other words it's the bet size when making the deviation. EV gain after the index is exceeded is anemic but it is the most frequent matchup. If hitting were the deviation then the frequency would be coupled with nothing but minimum bets and an anemic gain in EV. It would probably not make the I18.

So counters basic strategy is to always stand. If you have never heard of counter's basic strategy you should look it up. 16vT doesn't make the I18 for counter's basic strategy. Counters basic strategy is listed near the end of this link explaining Card Counter's Basic Strategy:

http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...c-strategy.htm

As you can see always standing on 16vT is the number 1 BS play for card counters. That is because not much is gained for an AP by hitting 16vT as a strategy departure. If the strategy departure is standing then the departure becomes one of the most valuable departures.

I hope between the article on Card Counter's Basic Strategy and my explanation you are following the reasons now. BS is for flat betting. Counter's Basic Strategy takes into account the bet spreading a counter uses. Don's I18 are deviations from BS. Standing is so important to a counter's strategy that hitting is the deviation from Card Counter's Basic Strategy.

[tater]

Based on what?

Single digit and 1/2 point counts in pitch games with No Surrender. SCORE doesn't change much at 1 or 0. Truly a flip of the coin at 0. But it changes a great deal between hit or stand. At RC-2 there are three options worth consideration. 1.) Increased chance of winning the hand. 2.) Taking a low card out of the deck. 3.) Maintaining a high SCORE.

What count are you using for this?

Stealth. Wong Halves. For one. But many, in fact most variations in tag values from that count result in index generations of 1 for 16vs10. If you override it to 0, there is little difference in SCORE. But if you override it to Stand, SCORE decreases a little over 10%. Conversely, you can override several indices to hit over the listed index generation and SCORE wouldn't move 1% in either direction.

Many threads and posts have been made to increase SCORE from various tag values, side counts etc. The argument is always if 10% is worth the effort. Here it appears taking a 10% hit is no big deal.

Three. You seem to have made something simple more complex. The sim and SCORE are what they are. So that's what I go by. So you are telling me to always stand on 16vs10? Fine. Please get Don S to echo this thought and I will do it. Fair enough? There has to be some skin in the game in order for me to take a 10% hit on SCORE considering the simplicity of the move.

[Freightman]

16 v 10
My standard rules allow ES10 surrender, stand or hit. I play all, therefore, I don't have the luxury of Wong out. Accordingly, I will make my best play. Just screw around with your best act.

If I hit, the deck is shitty. I've heard no one say anything about getting to the cut card faster, which should be a prime consideration when the shoe is big time negative.

[Three]

Please get Don S to echo this thought and I will do it. Fair enough?

Don would agree that it is the ramped bets that 16vT is always wrong on is why it is so valuable. When you don't use flat bettors basic strategy and use counter's basic strategy instead, which is based on making the most with a single strategy when spreading your bets, deviating from BS by hitting is of little value. I am not telling you to do anything. I am explaining why 16vT is the 2nd most important deviation. That is because hitting is the wrong BS for a counter. One thing you have to realize is you don't play BJ on a simulator. Any pro will tell you the keys to success are realizing this and only using a sim as a starting point. You were going by play-all sims. Do you play-all? If not you shouldn't be worried about what a play-all sim tells you. You should start with a sim that is as close to the way you play in the casino as possible and then adjust it for how casino play differs from the simulation. If it doesn't differ from the simulation you will be easily picked off and barred everywhere as soon as you play for significant money.

If a floor is suspicious he will watch you play and in no time at all see you play 16vT on both sides of the index. If you play it differently a phone call is likely to see if the different playing decisions correlates with the count. You can adjust the index to -2 or less and give up almost nothing, or always play the hand the same way. If you do the latter you should obviously always stand. A big part of EV is being able to play. You can either learn by people teaching you or by getting backed off and losing places to play. A simulator never says your game is too strong no more BJ or BJ variants for you, or shuffles away the count if you raise your bet or bet restrict you. The highest EV must factor in lost EV for casino actions against you. They might let you play but never give you decent pen. Other experienced players can give opposing opinions if I am wrong.

[Freightman]

16 v 10
My standard rules allow ES10 surrender, stand or hit. I play all, therefore, I don't have the luxury of Wong out. Accordingly, I will make my best play. Just screw around with your best act.

If I hit, the deck is shitty. I've heard no one say anything about getting to the cut card faster, which should be a prime consideration when the shoe is big time negative.

I might also add that the necessity to hit increases with lousier pen, as you have a poorer frequency of positive counts in higher positive shoes, ergo, cover is costly.

[Three]

16 v 10
My standard rules allow ES10 surrender, stand or hit. I play all, therefore, I don't have the luxury of Wong out. Accordingly, I will make my best play. Just screw around with your best act.

If I hit, the deck is shitty. I've heard no one say anything about getting to the cut card faster, which should be a prime consideration when the shoe is big time negative.

I might also add that the necessity to hit increases with lousier pen, as you have a poorer frequency of positive counts in higher positive shoes, ergo, cover is costly.

But aren't you surrendering most 16vT hands with ES10. The index should be pretty darn low so hitting is rarely the EV maximizing play.

[Freightman]

But aren't you surrendering most 16vT hands with ES10. The index should be pretty darn low so hitting is rarely the EV maximizing play.

I am surrendering most - again, I play all, so they're plenty of exceptions. 2 recent examples.

Smart ass me had 16 v 10, tell dealer I'm thinking of doubling for the 5, and if course, I get the 5 for 21.

A pit critter and birthing player whom EV been giving advice to, sees me max split 88 v 10 in a shit count, getting 18's and 19's, dealer ending with 17. The dealer is cool, critter says - boy, you're lucky, and I tell him that the count called for the split v surrender.

I really don't know the frequency of the deviation, but I can say it is definitely a cost saver. Further, as mentioned, in a crap count, getting to the cut card quickly is very important - which really made that max split so sweet.

[Three]

I have been trying to get in quality hours rather than quantity of hours. Mixed results so far but it looks like the way to go especially when factoring in longevity. If I am only going to play a couple hours, I don't want them to be shit counts. There are lots of AP plays scattered crossed the casino. I just shift my focus to another opportunity for a while and then get back to counting. It seems to be a big improvement but it takes more time to get to the long run where you can really evaluate how the change worked. So instead of playing 4 or 5 hours of whatever I find, I play from almost nothing to two or three hours of strong situations. The difference in rounds played is usually minimal since a good game is usually much faster than crap conditions.

[tater]

I have been trying to get in quality hours rather than quantity of hours. .

Be a mystery. Not another story.

A simulator never says your game is too strong no more BJ or BJ variants for you, or shuffles away the count if you raise your bet or bet restrict you. The highest EV must factor in lost EV for casino actions against you.

The dealer has two options. Flip and stand on 7,8,9,10. Flip and hit 2-6. However, the more negative the deck the more likely the dealer can still win by hitting. This is probably where the 10% difference comes from in SCORE. The last hand of the deck can often be the reward or loss from an entire deck.

[BoSox]

The dealer has two options. Flip and stand on 7,8,9,10. Flip and hit 2-6. However, the more negative the deck the more likely the dealer can still win by hitting. This is probably where the 10% difference comes from in SCORE. The last hand of the deck can often be the reward or loss from an entire deck.

In the last paragraph on page 96 in Don's book he wrote the following "minus my lack of keyboard use":

"Interestingly enough, another interesting common play-- not hitting 16 v.10 cost just about double that of insuring a blackjack, clocking in at 2.65c "with a slanted line through the c "/100 (or $2.65 per hour for the black-chip flat bettor). Note that the penalty, once you hold the hand, is a mere 0.75% of your wager (75c "with a slanted line through the c " per black chip), but that you encounter 16 v.10 more frequently than any other decision in the game, except 15 v.10 -- roughly 3.5 times per 100 hands played. On the contrary, you get to insure your blackjacks with only one-tenth the frequency of standing on 16 v. 10." Thus, recognize the importance of knowing the cost of the "spur of the moment decision," made once you have the hand already in front of you, as opposed to the "announce ahead of time" cost of camouflaging a play each time you are faced with the decision."

Three wrote:
"Don would agree that it is the ramped bets that 16vT is always wrong on is why it is so valuable. When you don't use flat bettors basic strategy and use counter's basic strategy instead, which is based on making the most with a single strategy when spreading your bets, deviating from BS by hitting is of little value. I am not telling you to do anything. I am explaining why 16vT is the 2nd most
important deviation. That is because hitting is the wrong BS for a counter. "

Three, without stating a players level of betting, I would have to disagree with that last sentence. I believe the frequency of occurrence makes it the reason why it is the number two play in the I 18.
Luckily, I do not face that situation as often as I have the late surrender option to use. When I do face the hand I play it by the count, and since I do Wong out there are not too many times that I will be hitting.

How do you make a "c" with a slanted / going through it?

[Sharky]

....critter says - .....and I tell him that the count called for the split v surrender.....

Now THAT is funny....LMAO

[Freightman]

So instead of playing 4 or 5 hours of whatever I find, I play from almost nothing to two or three hours of strong situations. The difference in rounds played is usually minimal since a good game is usually much faster than crap conditions.

The difference in hands played is a bit more than minimal, but the point is made. I'm assuming since your general rule sets are good, your crap conditions equates to crowded tables, which really is an annoyance.

For myself, naturally, I prefer good conditions, which includes good rule sets, deep pen, fast dealer and heads up play. I'm willing to play crap conditions which include lousy pen. Slow dealers are aggravating, but the real game killer for me us a crowded table.

[BJGenius007]

10% sounds absurdly high, even for pitch games.

What is clear is that, in dollars and sense, your loss
via by standing on 16 vs. 10 is absolutely minuscule.

Equally clear is that every pit critter knows that
ploppies either hit them all or stand on them all.
Ergo, you are all but outing yourself by switching
back and forth to earn an extra 9¢ cents per day.

Not 9 cents but $3 difference per hour assuming $10,000 BR, $10 to $200 spread, 6D, one Kelly.

I ran the simulation. Scenario 1 is all Basic Strategy and no surrender (so always hit on 16 v 10). Scenario 2 is all Basic Strategy/no surrender except index play on 16 v 10: hit when RC is negative and stand when RC is zero or higher. SCORE for scenario 1 is $38.34 and SCORE for scenario 2 is $41.36.