RoR - 3-4% ?

[MercySakesAlive]

I know this is a complicated subject but is it a bad idea if I am playing at RoR values of 3-4%?

Where should my RoR number be?

I'm not exactly sure what other info to provide to make answering the question easier...

I play 6 deck H17 DAS RSA, try for 5/6 pen or more. Bank roll $10k, ReKO

[DSchles]

I know this is a complicated subject but is it a bad idea if I am playing at RoR values of 3-4%?

Where should my RoR number be?

I'm not exactly sure what other info to provide to make answering the question easier...

I play 6 deck H17 DAS RSA, try for 5/6 pen or more. Bank roll $10k, ReKO

No one can answer this for you, once you understand what the term means. First you designate what your blackjack-playing bankroll is. You have stated $10K. Now, you play blackjack ... hopefully forever. You have a 96%-97% chance of winning forever, without ever losing your entire $10K, and you have a 3%-4% chance of losing all of it.

Are you OK with that? Many would be, but that doesn't matter. YOU have to be OK with it.

Don

[MercySakesAlive]

Thanks, Don. That's a really clear, easy to grasp way to look at it the question.

Sure, I'd take a bet that I have a 96-97% chance of winning. Wouldn't anyone?

So why do you pros then push your RoR down even further than 3-4%?

There must be something I'm not grasping when it comes to making this decision.

[stopgambling]

0.1% is is 30 x lower than 3% ROR . if one is playing for a living than it's probably a good idea .

[stopgambling]

sim said it is 3% ROR ,maybe it is really not 3% ROR with covers , error in deck estimation , varying pen etc... . We are not machine and do make estimating errors and counting errors . Maybe some people never make mistake but i certainly make mistakes .

[Ryemo]

MercySakesAlive,

Also to consider... RoR does not factor in living off your bankroll and taxes. When you plug in all of the parameters of your game into CVCX and it spits out your RoR, it’s assuming 100% reinvestment. So that 96% or 97% figure you mentioned, for a full time pro, is not really 96% or 97%. Once Uncle Same gets his cut and you pull money out of the roll to live, then your RoR will be higher than what CVCX quoted you. So for that reason, many pros strive to stay below 1%. I aim even lower if I can.

[Three]

So why do you pros then push your RoR down even further than 3-4%?

There must be something I'm not grasping when it comes to making this decision.

If you will resize down after losing a significant chunk of your BR the chance of busting out is not 3-4%, the RoR stat says if you don't resize your chances of busting out are 3-4%. If you can't or won't resize down after losing a significant chunk of your BR, your RoR is the chances you will bust your BR. So what RoR you are comfortable with depends a lot on how you plan to resize as wins and losses occur. Most pros aren't going to increase their ramp after wins because they are already at some sort of barrier preventing this like table limit or heat issues. They also don't want the issues of dealing with drawdown of bets, losing quick and making it back slower. This is the reason pros want a lower RoR. They don't want to have to drawdown their bets.

Now if you are in the other end of the spectrum and can't drawdown due to making the game not worth playing or table minimums (pretty related issues), you want a lower RoR because you have busted out if things go that bad. If you are in a bad enough BR situation your only hope is playing with an unacceptable RoR and hoping you get lucky. We call that the hail Mary approach.

So for pros they don't want to resize and may feel you can't resize. These would both be reasons to play to a lower RoR. If you plan on resizing a few times as you BR grows and can drawdown if necessary you may want to play to a higher RoR. Like Don said it is all personal preference. Some choose to play to a 13.5% RoR with constant resizing. There is pretty much no risk of busting out doing this but a losing streak may take extra long to make back at smaller bets. The other side of the coin is winning has you betting bigger which wins money faster when winning.

[Freightman]

I know this is a complicated subject but is it a bad idea if I am playing at RoR values of 3-4%?

Where should my RoR number be?

I'm not exactly sure what other info to provide to make answering the question easier...

I play 6 deck H17 DAS RSA, try for 5/6 pen or more. Bank roll $10k, ReKO

I had a 60k drawdown over 3 months playing a 0 ror - never resized.

[Freightman]

I had a 60k drawdown over 3 months playing a 0 ror - never resized.

Meant also to say, thæt had I played at 3-4% ror, resizing would have been necessary.

[RS]

Play with the numbers and you’ll see how a small decrease in EV can have a huge decrease in ROR. For example, playing full kelly you’re at a 13.5% ROR. Playing half kelly you’re playing at a 1.8225% ROR. Your ROR goes down considerably while only cutting your EV in half. (Correct me if I’m wrong.)

With a large enough bankroll, you’re no longer able to optimize your game for your BR. You have the problems of table limits or certain thresholds you don’t want to cross (ie: more scrutiny).

[MercySakesAlive]

In cvcx, why does my W/L% go down but my win rate go down when i raise bets on some of my counts? Thank you for any help. I hope this is a question that makes sense.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[Three]

In cvcx, why does my W/L% go down but my win rate go down when i raise bets on some of my counts?

You are raising high frequency low advantage bets. W/L% divides monetary EV/round by average bet/round. Raising a high frequency bet will change the average bet a lot. But if the advantage is small EV will not change much, relatively speaking. Divide the new EV by the new average bet and your numerated hasn't changed much while your denominator has changed more. This results in a lower quotient, or in this case a reduced W/L%.

[Three]

As advantage gets bigger this effect reduces until it reverses at a critical point. I find that the middle of my spread the effect is minimal and after that it reverses. Bet frequency and advantage are the critical factors. Bet frequency goes down as your advantage goes up. High bet frequency contributes to average bet more. High advantage contributes to EV more. As your advantage increases bet frequency decreases. The lower bet frequency contributes less to average bet while the higher advantage contribute more to EV.