James, what is the origin of your chart? It doesn't match the one in the link in your quote.
See my two charts above, if bet on PLAYER, a player have a 23.489% disadvantage when 9 goes to Banker. I generated these two charts with combinatorial analysis.
Actually the chart in the link(https://www.888casino.com/blog/edge-...the-known-card) combined two charts to one chart, only extract the +ve edge !
If "9" goes to banker, no doubt people who bet on BANKER have a 20.641% advantage, but people who bet on PLAYER have a 23.489% disadvantage, NOT 20.641% disadvantage as Gronbog claimed in his post #33 !
In other word, when 9 goes to BANKER, people who bet on BANKER have a 20.641% advantage, but it DOES NOT mean that other people who bet on PLAYER will have 20.641% disadvantage ! The disadvantage is actually 23.489% ! Hope I explained well.
so your expectation = 0.5x21.528% - 0.5 x 23.489% = -0.9805% !
Last edited by James989; 03-25-2018 at 05:53 PM.
Now that I consider the issue of commission paid on a winning banker bet, I concede that one can not simply use the banker advantage as the player disadvantage. However, I can't seem to reconcile the 20.641% banker advantage with a 23.489% disadvantage for the player when the 9 goes to banker. I'll try again tomorrow, unless someone posts the solution before then.
Yes, I would need the distribution of Win/Lose/Tie for both banker and player, with the 9 known as the first card and also as the second card.
Working backward, using your numbers for the case where the 9 comes first, the required distribution can be calculated by solving the following two equations:
Similarly for the case where 9 comes second, we would solveCode:pw - bw = 0.21528 (for a player advantage of 21.528%) -pw + 0.95(bw) = -0.23249 (for a banker disadvantage of 0.23249 Solving, I get pw = player win = 55.48% bw = banker win = 34.42% tie = 9.632%
If these distributions match those of your CA, then I think we're in agreement.Code:pw - bw = -0.23489 and -pw + 0.95(bw) = 0.20641 Solving gives: pw = player win = 33.471% bw = banker win = 56.96% tie = 9.569%
Let’s say that your method for locating 9’s wasn’t that accurate and you only knew that (at least) one 9 was coming somewhere in the next 4 cards. So the odds that a 9 could be in the first 2 cards of either hand are equal. Including commission, does one side have an advantage over the other?
Under such situation :-
If you bet on PLAYER, you have a 0.5x21.528% - 0.5 x 23.489% = -0.9805%(disadvantage)
If you bet on BANKER, you have a 0.5x20.641% - 0.5 x 23.249% = -1.304%(disadvantage)
BOTH SIDE have a disadvantage, but bet on PLAYER is slightly better !
IF I WERE YOU, I WILL NOT BET ANYTHING ! LOL !
Don't give up so easily! The examples given above were simplified and not necessarily applicable to real-world situations. If you find a game that you think might be vulnerable, by all means look into it! You might find an edge where everyone else isn't even looking.
-Sonny-
combinatorial analysis:
9 the 1st card
0.3441809 Banker win
0.5594623 Player win
0.0963568 Tie win
132334879180800 Banker win
215108869548032 Player win
37048426309888 Tie win
384492175038720 All win
9 the 2nd card
0.5695641 Banker win
0.3346722 Player win
0.0957637 Tie win
218992955203584 Banker win
128678834077696 Player win
36820385757440 Tie win
384492175038720 All win
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