Random or not?

[blueman]

Can a casino set a game, like video poker or video blackjack, to hold a certain %? Obviously these games are based off of skill, and as i have believed the cards have to be 100% random. I know there are different classes of casinos, i know one is all random and another has something to do with bingo cards but thats about all i know about it.

But lets say i find a video bj game with an exact 100.00% payback when playing perfect strategy. Is the casino able to program the game to hold 5% if they want? (Whether or not it would be cheating of they did)

[angle_sh00ter]

I've often wondered this myself!
My guess is that they could do it in the same way they can set the odds for regular slots. The question is how would we know if they are doing it.

[bjarg]

They can and they do.

[21forme]

In a game like VBJ or VP, the rules/pay table determines EV/return/hold.

Can a casino change those rules in BJ and pay table? Sure, but it has to be done manually by a slot tech. I don't know if it's true in all venues, but machines are programmed locally and not remotely or across a network.

If you're asking if the randomness of card draw can be changed (I hate to use the word clumping), the answer is no.

[blueman]

In a game like VBJ or VP, the rules/pay table determines EV/return/hold.

Can a casino change those rules in BJ and pay table? Sure, but it has to be done manually by a slot tech. I don't know if it's true in all venues, but machines are programmed locally and not remotely or across a network.

If you're asking if the randomness of card draw can be changed (I hate to use the word clumping), the answer is no.

So the cards HAVE to be random? This was my understanding before this post. So if the rules of the game determine that the bj game is an exact break even game, then you will expect a 100.00% payback after millions of hands, yeah?

[21forme]

Yes, but I haven't seen any of those good ruled machines. Don't forget 2 FOR 1 (even money) is not the same as 2 TO 1.

[blueman]

Yes, but I haven't seen any of those good ruled machines. Don't forget 2 FOR 1 (even money) is not the same as 2 TO 1.

Yeah i know theyre tricky. But i do have a great ruled game but everyone is on an extreme downswing as of late. Numbers are -2.08 SD, -2.69 SD, -1.72 SD after THOUSANDS of hands. Probably just sample size, which is fine, as long as its truly random

[Stealth]

Not sure what game you are playing but as an example to better understand your edge.

9/6 Jacks or Better has a payback of 99.54%. But you need to understand that this assumes you are going to win the Royal Flush in your play and the frequency of the Royal Flush is about every 40,000 rounds. This means the house edge when you are not hitting the Royal is around -3.8% not the -.46%. It is this paytable frequency that creates the high variance of the game.

Thousands of hands is meaningless, 50,000+ begins to be statistically meaningful.

[ShipTheCookies]

Not sure what game you are playing but as an example to better understand your edge.

9/6 Jacks or Better has a payback of 99.54%. But you need to understand that this assumes you are going to win the Royal Flush in your play and the frequency of the Royal Flush is about every 40,000 rounds. This means the house edge when you are not hitting the Royal is around -3.8% not the -.46%. It is this paytable frequency that creates the high variance of the game.

Thousands of hands is meaningless, 50,000+ begins to be statistically meaningful.

It also means playing 100% optimal strategy. Making errors, even tiny ones, will result in a lower payback then 99.54%.

[RS]

A casino can't legally "alter the RNG" to make the game have a lower return than the math dictates....at least not anywhere that I'm aware of.

So the cards HAVE to be random? This was my understanding before this post. So if the rules of the game determine that the bj game is an exact break even game, then you will expect a 100.00% payback after millions of hands, yeah?

Kinda sorta, but pretty much -- yes. But remember the more you play, the more variance there's going to be. The whole long term / "the more you play, the closer you get to your EV" is referring to the PERCENTAGE, not the dollar figure. As a dollar figure, it'll be more and more likely to be further away from EV, while as a %, it'll be closer and closer the more you play. Remember, variance isn't linear and SD grows faster than EV.

Do the math and see what +/- 1 SD is after 100 hands. Then again for 100,000 hands. Remember, you're just as likely to be down 1 SD after 100 hands as you are to be down 1 SD after 100,000 hands.

[DSchles]

What you said: "Remember, variance isn't linear and SD grows faster than EV."

What you meant to say: "Remember, SD isn't linear and EV grows faster than SD." :-)

Don

[RS]

You’re right (duh). I was thinking of EV=0 for part of that. Meant to show that if EV is 0, then SD just keeps getting further and further away from EV (just like it does with +EV), but since EV doesn’t go upwards you’ll never reach N0.

I’m bad with words.

[DSchles]

You’re right (duh). I was thinking of EV=0 for part of that. Meant to show that if EV is 0, then SD just keeps getting further and further away from EV (just like it does with +EV), but since EV doesn’t go upwards you’ll never reach N0.

I’m bad with words.

The whole part where you explained that, while the percentage difference between s.d. and e.v. grows smaller as the sample size gets larger, but the absolute magnitude of the difference between the two is always growing larger, was worded just fine. It was just that summary line that fell a little short.

Don