+1. Very good post Bubbles.Originally Posted by Bubbles
Pretty solid life philosophy. Here's my take on it - Find out what you're good at and do that. You may not love it, but chances are you won't mind it so much. It will pay the rent and maybe much more. Now as I'm getting close to retirement (I hate that word - let's call it financial independence), I'm going to do what I enjoy!
I will point out that even Richard Muchkin had a hard time believing some of Joe's story. Richard said several times "hard time believing". Everything Joe did went against everything all the books say to do. Does this mean Stanford Wong, Ian Anderson, Arnold Snyder, Don Schlesinger, Ken Uston, etc don't know what they're talking about. The reason all the heavyweights encourage playing and betting cover is to make more money. It's not because they don't like the tap. I've read all the books, some multiple times. Again, as most bj experts have pointed out, the counting is easy, getting away with it is hard. Joe made no attempt to get away with it.
Joe said he made a half million dollars his first year. That included time playing relatively low stakes while he learned the game and going through 200 hours where he lost $30,000. If you believe Joe's story, he made over $400,000 in less than 6 months playing in a way where he got backed off in less than an hour 33% of the time. He got backed off in less than 4 hours about 27% of the time. He had to drive 4 hours to go to find new casinos. It's hard for me to see how he would have got enough playing time in to make $430,000 in less than 6 months. Joe's first year was far more incredible than Yoshi's first year. Yoshi made $300,000 in 13 months and never had a losing month. This is somewhat believable. Joe went through 2 months of losing $30,000, and still made $200,000 more than Yoshi playing in a style where he was mostly getting backed off almost as soon as he sat down. Please listen to the podcast again. There are a lot of things that don't add up.
Im sure Joe's a great guy. I expect he somewhat embellishes his story. My best friend from college was this way. His stories always grew over time. I learned to take whatever he said and divide it in half, sometimes, by 2\3, and his stories would be more believable. It's called the fishman problem, the fish grows with time.
The part about what Pit bosses told him when they backed him off made no sense. One told him he was dividing by halfdecks and that's what threw them off. What? No pit critters would say that. Not one pit critters told him it was his aggressive bet spreads that caused the backoffs. All counters know this is the biggest tip off someone's a counter. I've got backed off and barred spreading from $10 to $40. I didn't need to ask the pit boss what got me. I knew immediately why they were backing me off. It was then when I knew I had to alter my style of play for longevity and to make money. You can't make money, if a casino won't let you play.
The story about the dealer dealing 700 rounds per hour also stretched credibility. I've never heard of a casino having a faster dealer around that is called into to combat a counter. If a casino thinks you're counting, they back you off or bar you. They don't bring in "super dealer".
When i listened to the interview, I felt Richard Mutchkin started going soft on Joe since he was a guest. I would have asked him harder questions. Not to put him on the spot, but to learn more about the new strategy he had developed (going from table min to man) that goes against conventional AP wisdom.
Ryemo, I respect you and have gotten a lot out of your posts. You have helped me up my game. Again, I don't want to undermine Joe, but when I hear things that don't add up I can't help but commenting on it. It's one of my weaknesses. Remember, I didn't buy most of what Nichalos Colin said in his article. I guess you could say I'm not gullible and I question things that don't pass the "sniff test". I do this at work too, which has got me in trouble. I'm learning to go with things that make no sense.
Dbs658,
I have no idea how to sway you without probably giving away way too much detail, but your assumptions on Joe and even Yoshi are wrong. Btw, Yoshi made a lot more than 300K last year. Yoshi’s and Joe’s story is actually very similar. Please don’t think I’m being disrespectful when I say you really have no idea.
The only thing Richard Munchkin sounded surprised by was about the dealer dealing 700 rounds per hour. But do the math... I’ve seen 2 dealers in my career that could deal at that kind of rate. Richard Munchkin already knew of Joe’s story beforehand and that’s why he was asked to be on the show. I wish you could see the things I’ve seen, because your smell test would be completely meaningless by that point. But this is a public forum, so there’s no way we could post the things here that have been shared only privately.
I want to remind you that I gain NOTHING by making a case for Joe. Whether you believe his story or not has no affect on me whatsoever. I’m making a case for him because I know his story is true. I’m saying you don’t have all of the facts and you haven’t seen the things I’ve seen, so I can understand why you might be skeptical. If you want to hop on my Discord, I know Joe would be willing to answer any of your questions. I’d be happy to post a link for you.
Dbs658,
Here, you can hop on if you like. https://discord.gg/pgdjtzw
Remyo,
You're missing my point on the dealer who could deal 700 rounds per hour. My point isn't that this isn't possible. My point is that this is NOT how casinos deal with counters. They back counters off. They don't bring in "super dealer" when they suspect a counter. Also, it did surprise me that not ONE pit critter said they backed him off because of his aggressive bet spread. Doesn't this surprise you a little? One pit critter said they googled his name and saw he had a business so they didn't think he was a counter? What? I expect the majority of counters have a job. Most counters only do this on the side. . It's hard for me to beleieve a pit critter googled his name and saw he owned a business so they didn't think he was a counter.
As as far as believing his story, that is your call if you want to beleieve it. Neither one of us will never know. Joe said he made $500,000 in his first year. Joe was playing by himself during this time so only he knows if this is true. He said he didn't start playing with a partner, his girlfriend, until after he had played for two years. A person can emblish their written records just like they can emblish their story verbally. People keep fake records all the time for a variety of reasons. Have you seen what happened with Bernie Madoff? All his best friends vouched for him until he was hauled off in hand cuffs. Don't get my point wrong here. I'm not saying Joe has done anything illegal.
I'm also thinking about the math. For Joe's story to be true, he had to make $430,000 in less than 6 months, by only being able to play in casinos for more than 4 hours about 30% of the time. Just from a math standpoint, it's hard to see how he'd get enough time in to generate this type of earnings. This is about 3x the win rate as Yoshi. Yoshi made $300,00 in 13 months.
One last comment on why I questioned Joe's first two years winnings. He was traveling with his girlfriend in year three and staying in fleabag motels. One would think if he had already made over $600,000 by this time, they wouldn't be staying in fleabag motels, especially with his new girlfriend. He was already a big time gambler with a lot of money. Why go the economy route, especially when he said he wasn't doing it only for the money. This sounded like what a person would do that was just scraping by.
You're right his story could be true. I guess I give casinos more credit for not letting something like this happen, meaning a young counter going from min to max taking them for hundred of thousands of dollars with no cover. If this is true, then much of what Arnold Snyder said in his books is bad advice.
I'd be glad to jump on the discord forum to learn more about Joe's story. How do I do this?
Click on the link I gave you. The Discord is an application. You can use it on a computer or smartphone or tablet. Create a user name. Just use the link as an invite. It’s an on going chat community that I started a year ago. Many forum members here are on it as well.
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