Different styles of play and GWAE guest, Card Counter “Joe”

[Dbs6582]

I enjoyed listening to this podcast. My impression was similar to freightman and Moses. It didn't paint a very attractive picture of an AP's lifestyle. It sounded like an awful life, being away from home for extended periods of time, living in awful conditions.

What I was trying to understand is how he made $500,000 the first year, starting with $15,000. I listened to this part a couple times and I have a hard time making the numbers work. First, Joe's bankroll went to about $100,000 and then he went on a 200 hour losing streak that first year where he lost $30,000. This would have taken him down to about $70,000. That means the second part of the year he made $430,000. This is with his aggressive style, where he was backed off about 25% of the time within the first 15 mins. If you can't play, you can't win money.

In chapter 12 in bja3, the best year for the best team member in the computer sim was $285,300. This was Cal in year 3. This was spreading from $300 to $1,600 and backcounting. Joe's second half of the year was much better than this. He must have been several sd above his EV.

i also didn't understand why the pit critters never mentioned bet spread as one of the reasons Joe got backed off. This is usually the main reason a counter is backed off. Also, I didn't see how going from table min to table max was better cover than ramping. This is the very reason a big player is used, to get to table max without the casino knowing what's going on.

Richard munchkin also said several times that he had a hard time believing some of Joe's story. Especially the 700 rounds/hour part. I didn't have a problem with that part, but I can't see how anybody would last long spreading from table min to table max while the pit is watching. Gamblers don't do this. Counters do. If the pit critters saw the chips stacking up in front of a player, he wouldn't stand by round after round letting this happen. Even if the pit critters didn't think someone could count this fast, they'd at least suspect some type of advantage play was going on, especially since this dealer was requested by Joe. That already smells fishy. And then Joe starts winning big money. And the pit critters just sat back and let this happen? It wouldn't happen at the casinos I frequent.

One final comment. I don't know how Colin knew his cover play wasn't working. He said he made $24,000 before he got backed off. How does he know he wouldn't have got backed off earlier without his cover play. This is a theoretical argument and we'll never know who is right. What would have happened had he played without cover? It could be cover kept him alive longer and made him an extra $10,000. The bottom line is bet spread is what got him. This is what gets most counters since casinos know to look for bet spreads. It's hard to disguise that.

Again, I liked the podcast. I just had a hard time making the numbers work. I wish there was more details on this and how he was able to get by with going from table min to table max so often. Even at my local casinos they won't stand for this and they almost never see counters, at least not when I'm around. The ploppies told me a story of someone who came through and did this and that person was backed off immediately and not treated well. The casino made this guy stand around at the cage for hours before they paid him.

Btw, I acted shocked when they told me this story and said I couldn't believe someone was actually counting at our casinos. All the locals said they couldn't believe it either. They all believed the counter was in the wrong and should have been thrown out. I agreed with them. I actually told them I'd never spotted a counter. They then described to me what a counter does. Lol

[umbrellaman]

Also, I didn't see how going from table min to table max was better cover than ramping. This is the very reason a big player is used, to get to table max without the casino knowing what's going on.

I saw this recently and I agree with your comment. The guy was going from 1x$25 to 2x$1000 with no ramp. It looked incredibly weird to have two identical stacks of quarters and thousand dollar chips in front of him and only betting one green on low counts. He lasted exactly ten minutes which was longer than I expected.

[JamesonDetroit]

Btw, I acted shocked when they told me this story and said I couldn't believe someone was actually counting at our casinos. All the locals said they couldn't believe it either. They all believed the counter was in the wrong and should have been thrown out. I agreed with them. I actually told them I'd never spotted a counter. They then described to me what a counter does. Lol

Priceless haha. It's nice when you have some validation that you are blending in well, and an easy opportunity to reinforce it.



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[Dbs6582]

Priceless haha. It's nice when you have some validation that you are blending in well, and an easy opportunity to reinforce it.

Thanks for your comments. My goals are different than pros. I genuinely like the casino experience. It's a way for me to relax and have a good time on weekends after a long week at work. I'd rather go to the casino than a movie. The ploppies are great in my area. My spreads are conservative, basically $10 to $80. I play almost exclusively DD.

My view of casinos is different than most here. The casinos are in the entertainment industry and they are accountable to their shareholders, not APs. I like watching all my football and basketball games on the big screen or wall (one casino projects the tv on the wall) while I play Blackjack. At my local casinos, I control the channel. They always turn it to the station I want. Last week they let me watch Tiger almost win for the first time in a long while. Most people in my area don't care about golf but they were okay with me watching golf on the main tv projected on the wall.

Nobody, including the pit critters, think I'm counting. Mostly because I occasionally hit my 12 against 4, 5 and 6s. They think I make bad plays because I'm spending too much time watching tv. I rathole quite a few greens every session so they see me as a long time loser.

This was not always the case. Early on I got barred and backed off from two local casinos spreading from $10 to $40. That's when I bought some books to learn better how not to look like a counter. I've now been playing at my other two local casinos for 10 years without problems. I'm less on their radar screen today than I was 10 years ago.

i have no ill will to any casinos because I understand this is their business and they need to make money otherwise they wouldn't be around. In fact, I sometimes feel guilty when I win too much money from one of my local ones. Not so much at a big casino I don't frequent much. I'm the parasite in the casino. They are the ones adding value. The people in my area love the casinos for the experience. They regularly have bands play on the weekends which also make it enjoyable to unwind. Can't get any better than that: Blackjack, watching sports on tv, listening to a good band, and hot waitresses serving you drinks.

I also like the challenge of blackjack. It's a fascinating game. I'm always trying to improve my game even though I know it adds little to my winnings. This is why I sometimes side count aces and sevens. The insurance discussions here have been great. And helped me. This site has definitely helped me improve my game. Thanks!

[Stealth]

The casinos are in the entertainment industry and they are accountable to their shareholders, not APs.

While I certainly agree they are accountable to their shareholders, I would note that they are also refusing service for no verifiable reason while offering a product to the general public, which if pursued legally may have merit. Placing people in a database that results in those people being further denied service, with no notification or ability to redress, at other related or unrelated businesses tends to damage reputations and stifle my ability to use their services.

I contend it is mostly the balance of resources (they have lot's, individuals have few) that has allowed this to continue. I have even suggested to some friends a Gofundme account to raise legal fees to support a class action suit, I certainly would be a participant. I also realize the conflict in this line of thought with the laws regarding property owners right to trespass. They can be used in direct opposition to open and fair trade. Casinos use the trespass laws to ban AP's from their property. At any rate, a complex question that will not be solved soon, if ever.

[Dbs6582]

While I certainly agree they are accountable to their shareholders, I would note that they are also refusing service for no verifiable reason while offering a product to the general public, which if pursued legally may have merit. Placing people in a database that results in those people being further denied service, with no notification or ability to redress, at other related or unrelated businesses tends to damage reputations and stifle my ability to use their services.

I contend it is mostly the balance of resources (they have lot's, individuals have few) that has allowed this to continue. I have even suggested to some friends a Gofundme account to raise legal fees to support a class action suit, I certainly would be a participant. I also realize the conflict in this line of thought with the laws regarding property owners right to trespass. They can be used in direct opposition to open and fair trade. Casinos use the trespass laws to ban AP's from their property. At any rate, a complex question that will not be solved soon, if ever.

Valid points! I've gone both ways on this issue. At first, I was 100% where most APs are at, especially when I was backed off and 86'd from a couple casinos for doing almost nothing. I didn't even go past $50 and they 86'd me and treated me like a criminal, waking me to my car. I thought, wow, how could they do this? I didn't do anything illegal.

Arnold Snyder is the person who helped me understand things better from the casino's perspective. In one of his books, he said something to the effect that we need to understand the game is beatable only because the casinos allow it to be beatable. To survive the casinos need the ability to backoff counters, especially ones like Joe who take things to the extreme. If a casino couldn't backoff a counter going from min to max, they would be out of business or have to change the game. He also said the counting part is easy; getting away with it is hard. I think it's Arnold that said he'd rather train an actor to count, then a mathematics wiz to act.

Max Rubin also helped me understand things better from the casino's perspective. There was a great podcast on bja where Colin interviewed Max Rubin. At one point Max made Colin uncomfortable when Max pointed out the value casinos bring to people. The masses enjoy the casinos experience, which is reflected in the numbers. More people spend money on gaming than all sports and movies combinded. People don't spend money on things unless they bring their life value, either through experience or improving their quality of life. My friends who go to Vegas once a year have many options on where to spend their entertainment dollar. What do they chose? A Caribbean curse, a weekend at Disneyland, a trip to Europe? Nope. They chose Vegas. They are far from anything close to APs. They enjoy the experience, which includes gaming. They have never complained about 6:5. They lose most the time so 6:5 has little impact on them. These are intelligent people with high paying jobs.

At at the end of Max's interview with Colin, he made fun of some APs saying they have a hard time enjoying life since they see everything in terms of EV. He said they don't even know how to order a beer since they're looking at some angle on how they can get it free. I wish people on this site could hear this interview. It gave me a new appreciation for Max Rubin.

You said it best in your last sentence. It's a "complex question that won't be solved soon, if ever."

[Stealth]

They enjoy the experience, which includes gaming. They have never complained about 6:5. They lose most the time so 6:5 has little impact on them. These are intelligent people with high paying jobs.

Again, valid comments. However, be careful contrasting the AP's from customers as they are one and the same. They put the games out there and should let all people play fairly and equally. You see, the non-AP's DO COMPLAIN about the quality of the games and will not play if not reasonable in their opinion. Saying that no one is complaining about 6:5 is just blatantly wrong. Those that are playing 6:5 are not complaining, sure, but many others do not play due to that rule.

That's why you have chocolate and vanilla. As far as " If a casino couldn't backoff a counter going from min to max, they would be out of business or have to change the game", I don't believe that for one minute and we will just have to disagree. More realistic is that countermeasures are costing them more money than they would have exposed to card counters. The most egregious one being penetration.

Again, won't be resolved soon, if ever.

[BoSox]

While I certainly agree they are accountable to their shareholders, I would note that they are also refusing service for no verifiable reason while offering a product to the general public, which if pursued legally may have merit.

First very good post Stealth. The reason casinos can refuse service for no verifiable reason is because of their money, power, and arrogance "sort of like the Dept. Of Justice". They can and do ruin a persons name and reputation as well as bar them from their property with only an unproven accusation of cheating, to which they use the term very loosely. We need a special counsel investigation.

[Bigdaddy]

I really liked the GWAE episode - a lot of good info. Shows how successful one can be if both committed and fearless.

[Dbs6582]

Again, valid comments. However, be careful contrasting the AP's from customers as they are one and the same. They put the games out there and should let all people play fairly and equally. You see, the non-AP's DO COMPLAIN about the quality of the games and will not play if not reasonable in their opinion. Saying that no one is complaining about 6:5 is just blatantly wrong. Those that are playing 6:5 are not complaining, sure, but many others do not play due to that rule.

That's why you have chocolate and vanilla. As far as " If a casino couldn't backoff a counter going from min to max, they would be out of business or have to change the game", I don't believe that for one minute and we will just have to disagree. More realistic is that countermeasures are costing them more money than they would have exposed to card counters. The most egregious one being penetration.

Again, won't be resolved soon, if ever.

All good comments. It's not like I have this totally figured out, but I do understand things a little better from the casino's perspective after having read many books. Btw, it's nice having a thoughtful disagreement on this forum without getting personally attacked.

[BoSox]

More realistic is that countermeasures are costing them more money than they would have exposed to card counters. The most egregious one being penetration.

Again, won't be resolved soon, if ever.

That is an accurate statement and I believe the casinos are well aware of it, and it does not bother them in the least. All of this boils right down to a matter of principle. No cost is too high to prevent some nerdy asshole from possibly taking them for a few dollars once in a while.

[Ryemo]

I enjoyed listening to this podcast. My impression was similar to freightman and Moses. It didn't paint a very attractive picture of an AP's lifestyle. It sounded like an awful life, being away from home for extended periods of time, living in awful conditions.

What I was trying to understand is how he made $500,000 the first year, starting with $15,000. I listened to this part a couple times and I have a hard time making the numbers work. First, Joe's bankroll went to about $100,000 and then he went on a 200 hour losing streak that first year where he lost $30,000. This would have taken him down to about $70,000. That means the second part of the year he made $430,000. This is with his aggressive style, where he was backed off about 25% of the time within the first 15 mins. If you can't play, you can't win money.

In chapter 12 in bja3, the best year for the best team member in the computer sim was $285,300. This was Cal in year 3. This was spreading from $300 to $1,600 and backcounting. Joe's second half of the year was much better than this. He must have been several sd above his EV.

i also didn't understand why the pit critters never mentioned bet spread as one of the reasons Joe got backed off. This is usually the main reason a counter is backed off. Also, I didn't see how going from table min to table max was better cover than ramping. This is the very reason a big player is used, to get to table max without the casino knowing what's going on.

Richard munchkin also said several times that he had a hard time believing some of Joe's story. Especially the 700 rounds/hour part. I didn't have a problem with that part, but I can't see how anybody would last long spreading from table min to table max while the pit is watching. Gamblers don't do this. Counters do. If the pit critters saw the chips stacking up in front of a player, he wouldn't stand by round after round letting this happen. Even if the pit critters didn't think someone could count this fast, they'd at least suspect some type of advantage play was going on, especially since this dealer was requested by Joe. That already smells fishy. And then Joe starts winning big money. And the pit critters just sat back and let this happen? It wouldn't happen at the casinos I frequent.

One final comment. I don't know how Colin knew his cover play wasn't working. He said he made $24,000 before he got backed off. How does he know he wouldn't have got backed off earlier without his cover play. This is a theoretical argument and we'll never know who is right. What would have happened had he played without cover? It could be cover kept him alive longer and made him an extra $10,000. The bottom line is bet spread is what got him. This is what gets most counters since casinos know to look for bet spreads. It's hard to disguise that.

Again, I liked the podcast. I just had a hard time making the numbers work. I wish there was more details on this and how he was able to get by with going from table min to table max so often. Even at my local casinos they won't stand for this and they almost never see counters, at least not when I'm around. The ploppies told me a story of someone who came through and did this and that person was backed off immediately and not treated well. The casino made this guy stand around at the cage for hours before they paid him.

Btw, I acted shocked when they told me this story and said I couldn't believe someone was actually counting at our casinos. All the locals said they couldn't believe it either. They all believed the counter was in the wrong and should have been thrown out. I agreed with them. I actually told them I'd never spotted a counter. They then described to me what a counter does. Lol

Here's what I concluded about GWAE episodes; It's very difficult to summarize your entire AP career into an hour long Q&A session without leaving out some details. It’s more like 45 min after commercials, introductions, and commentary from the hosts.

I met Joe a year and a half ago through mutual friends, so I've gotten to know his story since that point. Same goes for Yoshi. I met Yoshi when he only had a 40K bankroll.

I'm not sure what to say other than you'd have to talk to Joe I suppose. He posts on Blackjack Apprenticeship and he recently joined my Discord, so you can catch him there. I'm sure he'd be willing to give you a play by play to share his experiences. I've seen Joe's full database profiles and I've seen him play, so I know his story to be true. Same goes for Yoshi as well. I know stories like the ones you hear from guys like Yoshi or Joe sound rare, but I can assure you that they're true. They're also not as rare as you might think. Just because you don't see those guys posting on BJTF doesn't mean they aren't out there.

I would also like to remind you that this game can be extremely volatile. My own results are a pretty good example. In November of last year, I climbed out of 300 losing streak. Since the beginning of Nov, I’m 3x ahead of EV after 140 hrs. Blackjack is a volatile game. It’s obvious that guys like Yoshi or Joe ran REALLY well when it counted the most.

[Bubbles]

I play conservative and aggressive at the same time. I like to travel and I also like to stay welcome. I always play within a casino's tolerance. If they tolerate aggressive play, then that is what I do. I've yet to get a back off for counting.

I love traveling and driving. Questionable hotels come with the best stories. I've not peed in my car, but I've watered some bushes. I have slept a time or two in my car as well. Yes, traveling and staying in strange places away from family isn't for most people. While I have family, they are my parents and extended family. My prince charming never showed up. I got tired of waiting for him. He's going to have to catch me if he wants to find me now. I'm not waiting around my whole life to find someone and start a family. There are tables out there that need counted. I finally feel like I'm living. I love my life.

I agree if you do not enjoy what you're doing, you should find something else. Life isn't all about the result or destination--it is about the journey. Do what you enjoy.