does anyone know what the player and dealer bust rates are in Sp21?
I can generate the information you need for whichever particular rules you are interested in. However, I am on vacation and won't have access to my computers until late next week. PM me a reminder at that time if no one else gets you the information before then.
My estimate is .9%, by taking the average probability of the dealer busting in SP21, as taken from Katrina Walker's book, multiplied by the probability of busting in blackjack (as I could not find SP21 figures) and then dividing by five to account for the five possible bust totals, but this is a rough estimate and I would love to get a more accurate figure.
Garbage in, garbage out.
To me, this is ambiguous. Do you mean both the player and dealer bust with the same total? That would be my guess as to the possibilities.
This would seem to only be useful for a side bet but the contract SP21 leasers have with the patent holder says only one side bet can be offered, match the dealer. The federal patent specifies a specific set of rules which every leaser must follow or be in violation of federal patent law. No jurisdiction that takes its job of seeing that the casinos deal lawful games would grant a deviation from the patented rules of any patented game without a written consent from the patent holder. The patent holder has said clearly and firmly no such permission would ever be granted under any circumstances.
It seems to me that this possibility could be increased by altering the playing strategy. If the side bet pays enough, it might be worth sacrificing some EV on the Spanish 21 bet in order to increase the return on the side bet.
In addition to or instead of the information you've asked for, I could get you the final probability you're seeking and generate the strategy deviations which would maximize the combination of the two bets.
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