What Three led you to, and you figured out is true for normal distribution.
This is true, VP distribution is skewed because of the big royal payoff. That's why the first article I posted was written--to give an alternate and more accurate way to evaluate ROR. Taking out the royal smooths out some of the "skewedness", you just have to realize with the number of hands you are playing there is a very reasonable chance for the royal. Looks like a good play but not a slam dunk (which I would define as 99% surety of a positive outcome), eyeballing it I'd say about 10-20% chance of a negative outcome.
I don't know the probability assigned to a slam dunk, so I was defining what it meant to me. I've seen basketball pros miss them, so its not 100% in my mind.
Even without the royal (1 in 43000 chance, 1.84% of the EV) this is a positive play with the 3.5% cash back but is not a "slam dunk" by my 99% surety definition. If you hit a royal (22500 chances at a 1 in 43000 chance, ~40% to hit 1 or more), yes it would be hard to come up a loser.
Last edited by Joe Mama; 02-24-2018 at 10:42 AM.
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It has excellent simulation capabilities.
Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!
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