Probability theory

**Freightman** · 02-19-2018, 02:44 PM

Originally Posted by SpikeBJ

DL

Thank you for your response. Results will be tallied and announced.

**Frank Galvin** · 02-19-2018, 02:49 PM

Originally Posted by Freightman

Wow
Since 3 is always right, we need to determine who the numbskull is that is impersonating him.

Dear impersonator
It is a trial of 1 fucking event. No matter how many times you duplicate a trial of 1 event, you can only have 1 of 2 results, neither of which match your EV calculation, so, who the fuck cares about your math. Before drifting off into space, please relinquish your hold on the imprisoned 3.

My kids, when they were younger, used to watch WWF. There was this one character, who wrestled under the name "Mr. Perfect" because he did everything so.........perfectly. 3, are u still taking steroids?

So, on a similar vein, I advocated commencing with the left nut when counting aces utilizing the FBM ASC. I advocated this believing truthfully that most men dress left VS. dress right, thus providing a larger ball area for more accurate counting. Perhaps it is time to test the hypothesis via informal poll. Simply reply DR or DL. This is a far more useful expense of time VS this ridiculous thread.

I guess I swing both ways! Sometimes DL, and other times, DR.

**BoSox** · 02-19-2018, 03:03 PM

Frank, I am sorry if you do not like those lawyer jokes that I directed at you, not too recently.

**Frank Galvin** · 02-19-2018, 03:07 PM

BoSox, no issues. I truly liked Tthree, Three, not so much. He is extremely bright, in the sense of your 12 year old who wants to show you why you were wrong in determining how much to tip the waiter/waitress. You didn't need to multiply the bill by 10%, and then multiply it by 50% of that to get 15%. He explains to you why it is much easier to use differential calculus and whatever branch of mathematics quadratic equations is used.

As for not liking lawyer jokes, over the course of the last 30 years, I haven't met too many lawyers that I actually liked. Oh, sorry, you said lawyer jokes. I thought you said lawyers. Never mind. Same difference!

**BoSox** · 02-19-2018, 03:12 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Galvin

I thought you said lawyers. Never mind. Same difference!

Thanks, yes you are right, originally I did say lawyers.

**Frank Galvin** · 02-19-2018, 03:16 PM

Originally Posted by moses

Wait! So Three is different from Tthree? Sort of like, "hello, I'm Darrell, this is my brother Darrell, and my other brother Darrell," kind of thing?

Darrell and Darrell, yeah could be. I was thinking more of Ying and Yang.

**BoSox** · 02-19-2018, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by moses

Wait! So Three is different from Tthree? Sort of like, "hello, I'm Darrell, this is my brother Darrell, and my other brother Darrell," kind of thing?

Moses, this below link was their first appearance on the show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yyB06HvAjI

**Freightman** · 02-19-2018, 03:26 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Galvin

I guess I swing both ways! Sometimes DL, and other times, DR.

How can that be? I'm gobsmacked. Think I'll assign you DL status.

**Freightman** · 02-19-2018, 03:30 PM

Originally Posted by Frank Galvin

Darrell and Darrell, yeah could be. I was thinking more of Ying and Yang.

Kinda liked the 8 inch woofer for the the 4 inch tweeter.

**Freightman** · 02-19-2018, 03:37 PM

Originally Posted by BoSox

Moses, this below link was their first appearance on the show.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5yyB06HvAjI

That was FUNNY.

**Gramazeka** · 02-19-2018, 03:54 PM

As I wrote earlier, we have given two boxes, one X and the other 2X. THIS IS THE TERMS OF THE TASK !!! We opened one casket. In our problem, either X or 2X is always opened, and we do not know what exactly was opened - but it is NOT a fault to come up with some new values ??of sums not specified in the condition of the problem. Then, if this box X, then with a probability of 100% we will be given a replacement for the box 2X. If this box is 2X, then with a probability of 100% we will be given a replacement box for X.

But we CAN NOT say that we will ever be given a casket with 1 / 2X, as there is NO such box at all !!!

If someone wants to insist that after taking a box with X money we can open a casket with 1 / 2X money, then this someone MUST change the conditions of the task and say that we have two boxes X and 1/2. And then the casket with 2X money will cease to exist, which again shows the error in the solution selected above.

In other words, we do not have the right to name the amount of money in the chosen box as X and from this amount to determine 2 possible value propositions in the second box. The given conditions of our specific task DO NOT ALLOW us to do so - this is a mistake. The trick is that we really get 50/50 or more, in relation to the amount in the opened box, or a smaller amount, but these 50/50 should not be substituted in the formula for calculating the expectation of this action (the choice of the second box), because by choosing the first We are already bogged down in the given conditions of the problem! We do not have boxes with 1 / 2X, since the probabilities are dependent on us.

**Freightman** · 02-19-2018, 03:59 PM

Originally Posted by Gramazeka

As I wrote earlier, we have given two boxes, one X and the other 2X. THIS IS THE TERMS OF THE TASK !!! We opened one casket. In our problem, either X or 2X is always opened, and we do not know what exactly was opened - but it is NOT a fault to come up with some new values ??of sums not specified in the condition of the problem. Then, if this box X, then with a probability of 100% we will be given a replacement for the box 2X. If this box is 2X, then with a probability of 100% we will be given a replacement box for X.

But we CAN NOT say that we will ever be given a casket with 1 / 2X, as there is NO such box at all !!!

If someone wants to insist that after taking a box with X money we can open a casket with 1 / 2X money, then this someone MUST change the conditions of the task and say that we have two boxes X and 1/2. And then the casket with 2X money will cease to exist, which again shows the error in the solution selected above.

In other words, we do not have the right to name the amount of money in the chosen box as X and from this amount to determine 2 possible value propositions in the second box. The given conditions of our specific task DO NOT ALLOW us to do so - this is a mistake. The trick is that we really get 50/50 or more, in relation to the amount in the opened box, or a smaller amount, but these 50/50 should not be substituted in the formula for calculating the expectation of this action (the choice of the second box), because by choosing the first We are already bogged down in the given conditions of the problem! We do not have boxes with 1 / 2X, since the probabilities are dependent on us.

Why are you getting serious. Outrageous. Oh, I agree. Whomever has possessed 3 will respond shortly.

**Gramazeka** · 02-19-2018, 04:13 PM

The funny thing is that the very first action (when we take any box of two, one of which is X money, and the other - 2X) ALREADY has EV = 1.5X !!! Therefore, it should not be surprising that the EV decision to replace the box has the SAME 1.5X, that is, we take the contents of the first box or change it to the second one - the EV equally for that and for another case. That is the answer - it makes no difference whether or not to change.