really?

[Frostbyte]

I believe in the long run, everybody does, but it has no value to us as players. What are you going to do with it? Is it going to change the way you play blackjack? It gives us a lot of statistics which are frozen in time, until something new is added. Then new sims might cause a change. As long as you've included new verifiable information that gives you better results, the long term importance is less relevant.

The long run is supposed to change the way you play blackjack. N0 more or less quantifies the long run and all else being equal we select our games according to the lowest possible N0 (or highest possible SCORE; as they're quite directly related).

To look at it another way, at a given game we try to pick whatever bet spread makes the long run come quickest... different spreads affect N0 differently depending on the specific game. But since N0 is proportional to your average doubling time, picking the shortest long run also maximizes your long-term growth.

[falling star]

The long run is supposed to change the way you play blackjack. N0 more or less quantifies the long run and all else being equal we select our games according to the lowest possible N0 (or highest possible SCORE; as they're quite directly related).

To look at it another way, at a given game we try to pick whatever bet spread makes the long run come quickest... different spreads affect N0 differently depending on the specific game. But since N0 is proportional to your average doubling time, picking the shortest long run also maximizes your long-term growth.

It seems like a very aggressive use of bankroll over a short period of time. Once you reach NO and your growth/doubling hasn't materialized, do you allow more time or do you reset and start over?

[ThatLuckyDog]

Falling Star, I am just curious, have you ever taken a statistics course?

[Three]

Falling Star, I am just curious, have you ever taken a statistics course?

I was thinking did he ever take a math course. LOL

[ThatLuckyDog]

I was thinking did he ever take a math course. LOL

Ha ha be nice Tthree. There is always room in the world for one more AP. There are already enough people out there trying to stop us from pursuing our passion. We have to stay united on our side.

[falling star]

I was thinking did he ever take a math course. LOL

I'll keep you both guessing, that way you won't be able to BS us players.

[falling star]

This is my final post in this thread.
if you agree with Norm, that my suggestion is utter nonsense, then don't try it.
If it appeals to you, try it. I can assure you, your world won't come to an end. You can always return to what you did before if it doesn't work for you.

[Three]

I can hear the stampede of APs heading to the casino to bet independent of advantage.

[AP2win]

I hope you didn't find my posts a complete waste of time. I actually believe statistics are great in providing information that is helpfull. The problem is how some people interpret it. The company that I worked for eliminated the flue shot program because only 30 percent of employees were using it. The only problem was the 30 percent using the program were the ones who needed it.

Your posts were interesting but I would never play the way you do.

You hit the nail on the head. It's how the information is interpreted that matters. Your example shows is that it is important for those using the information to have a thorough understanding of what it means and what it doesn't mean, not that the information itself is faulty or irrelevant.

You're basically proving our point regarding AP. It's your interpretation of the information that is faulty, not the information.

You can walk into a casino with all kinds of degrees, and they'll still take your money. To win, you need a thorough knowledge of the game, awareness of the problems you'll face, how you are going to overcome those problems, an adequate bankroll ...

The long run will save me approach, IMO, is rather naive.If you don't win, it's probably to late to do anything about it.

It's not naive. Don't believe us? Believe the casinos. They live by it every day. If you don't win, it's not too late to do anything about it. That's what having an adequate bankroll is about. If you've set yourself up correctly you will have enough money to reach the long run. The math ALWAYS wins. Period. That's what built those casinos.

Everyone has the same amount of luck in playing games, once it's used up, it doesn't get replenished.

WRONG. Casinos don't believe in luck. They believe in math.

Look at it this way: When one becomes an AP (card counter or otherwise) they, in essence, become a tiny casino of their own with one customer at a time -- the CASINO. The casino is MY customer. We engage in a game where I have the advantage. They may win in the short-term but if we keep playing I will always come out ahead in end as long as I have deep enough pockets to withstand any short-term wins they might have against me.

I control my bankroll and the size of the bets the casino is limited to as my customer the same way the casino does with its customers. They use signs at the table to limit bets. Small casinos have low limits. Large corporations have high limits. I use my bet size choices to do the same.

I am a casino of one. I don't walk into a store to play hoping for or depending on luck. I don't give a @#$ about it. Luck is for suckers.

[AP2win]

Falling Star, I realize that this may be beating a dead horse, but I think the reason that members have kept posting is that you came here, to an AP forum, voluntarily, so on some level you understand the importance of gaining an advantage when playing and want to learn.

Let's look at your play and counting another way. Say we played a simple game. We have a bag of 10 marbles. If I put 6 black and 4 white in the bag and tell you to place a bet of any size, remove one marble (blind) from the bag, and I will pay you even money if you pick a white marble and you lose if you pick a black marble. We then return the marble to the bag every time so that it's always got the same 10 marbles inside before each new game. Would you play? How much would you bet?

Do you think that ANY betting progression based on previous wins or losses would beat the game?

This is called the law of independent trials.

Let's change it. What if most of the time there were 6 black and 4 white, but sometimes there were 5 black and 5 white, and sometimes there were 4 black and 6 white.

Now here's the catch. I'm not going to tell you what condition is in the bag and you have no way of figuring it out, so you still have to bet blind. You might get lucky and bet big when there are 6 white marbles in the bag, but then you might bet small then and screw up and bet big when there are only 4. You'll never know, so in the long run it won't make any difference how much you bet or when because the number of white marbles will even out. Since there are only 4 marbles most of the time, you'll still lose.

That's how you're playing. Again, betting blind, do you think that any betting progression based on previous wins and losses will beat it?

That's blackjack.

Each deal (or shuffle) is an independent trial, but within the shuffle, the balance of marbles changes because the cards removed from the deck don't always come out equally. That makes the rounds played within one shuffle dependent trials.

Card counting is knowing when there are 6 white marbles in the bag and only betting more when that is the case. It makes no difference whether or not you won or lost your last bet, or the last 10 bets. If you consistently bet small or nothing when there are only 4 or 5 white marbles in the bag and always bet big when there are 6, you're going to win. Do you doubt it?

Try it out for yourself. I'm serious. Just make sure that there are only 4 white marbles and 6 blacks more often than there are 6 whites and 4 blacks, because nominal BJ is a negative expectation game.

Try your betting progression against the bag when it has 4 white marbles 80% of the time and 6 white marbles 20% of the time (to accelerate the results.) Obviously, you'll need someone to set the bag for you so you don't know what's inside.

Then try betting small or none when you set the bag yourself with 4 white marbles 80% of the time and bet big when you set the bag yourself with 6 whites 20% of the time. See what happens.

<ADD> Remember to still pick blind in each case.

[happyjack21]

ah the good old 2 colored marbles in a bag.
I love this example
Never gets old.
Also the best way to describe that small small edge you get by CC.
Works wonders as a sort of layman's statistics.

[Tom]

I like to play it with M&Ms, that way I get to eat them

[sagefr0g]

I like to play it with M&Ms, that way I get to eat them

wrong thread, that's plus ev