Let’s talk about something else - like bet cover!

**Red Green** · 01-25-2018, 05:00 PM

Trolling the archives I’ve come across fragments on bet cover. The opposite of “bet cover” would be exact Kelly betting (impossible and if not impossible, very bad form). With aggressive ramps, you can easily go from 1 or 2 units to near max or max in one round where there are a few other players at the table. Just as the count can climb, it can fall. So what is the best way to get from A to B (or 2 to 10) in the fewest moves possible without raising red flags?

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**Meistro123** · 01-25-2018, 06:23 PM

I am adamantly opposed to any sort of playing cover, but in favour of modest betting cover. Mostly I believe you should try to avoid decreasing your bet on a win or increasing too massively in one round especially if you have been losing. Basically the goal is to look completely natural. Try to avoid looking at the discard tray whenever possible (just know where in the shoe you are) and don't agonize over any decision. Anything that is close enough to perplex you shouldn't matter which way you pick anyway.

**Ryemo** · 01-25-2018, 06:36 PM

I would avoid betting cover because it’s far costlier than playing cover. I think the only time I’ve used betting cover was in good DD games where I knew my hourly EV was pretty high to begin with. I never using betting cover while playing shoes.

If you’re red chipping I wouldn’t use ANY cover. None.

**Red Green** · 01-25-2018, 07:44 PM

Interesting. Meistro, will you use that no matter where you are or primarily if in a store you frequent and need more cover? I know Ryemo has indicated a hit and run, though not with a 'burn the bridge' mentality so bet cover may be less necessary than play cover. The former seems good advice for a local place where one may become known, the latter for when you can zip around. In thinking about it I suppose 'parlay up' is natural so long as the count supports it. A replacement bet is neutral. A half or reduction bet can signal 'cautionary' voodoo if the act is good. And a rising bet on a loss can be sold as martingaling or chasing or steaming if the bet is rich enough relative to the range game you've been presenting. Further, I guess betting in even or regular units makes it a bit easier. E.G. if the ramp called for 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, replacing it with 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 or 1, 2.5, 5, 7.5, 10 may make cycling up and down easier (that example is based on a $10 min table) with a fairly minor impact on EV and RoR.

**Freightman** · 01-25-2018, 07:57 PM

You've placed a single unit in the square. You double and win, and the count has gone up. You put your doubled amount, plus the won amount, and you've increased from $25 to $100.

You've placed $100 in the square and win, and parlay the now 8 green into the betting square.

You tie the $200 bet, and the count has gone down. You maintain the $200 bet - wtf.

Is that betting cover? Might be, but then again maybe not. Are you counting or not. The pit us thinking, yeah, he's counting, but deck estimation is bad - is it?

**Red Green** · 01-25-2018, 08:18 PM

My friend Rashi, an AP, would say, "That is an excellent question!". You think leaving the push bet out raises a reasonable doubt in their mind? Like starting a shoe with a 2x or 3x bet?

**Freightman** · 01-25-2018, 09:10 PM

Originally Posted by Red Green

My friend Rashi, an AP, would say, "That is an excellent question!". You think leaving the push bet out raises a reasonable doubt in their mind? Like starting a shoe with a 2x or 3x bet?

The question was really rhetorical. The point was - was it cover or not. To quote commander Riker "now I know why they call it, advanced tactical training.

https://youtu.be/9WB_4VpvS-E

**Bubbles** · 01-26-2018, 08:33 AM

There are many ways to implement betting cover. While I do not use playing cover, aside from occasionally forgoing splitting 10s, I do use betting cover. Sometimes I don't use any, but the sweaty places get some. Did I raise out of cover or because of the count? Did I not notice there was a shuffle? The world may never know.

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**tomf23** · 01-26-2018, 01:58 PM

Originally Posted by Meistro123

I am adamantly opposed to any sort of playing cover, but in favour of modest betting cover. Mostly I believe you should try to avoid decreasing your bet on a win or increasing too massively in one round especially if you have been losing. Basically the goal is to look completely natural. Try to avoid looking at the discard tray whenever possible (just know where in the shoe you are) and don't agonize over any decision. Anything that is close enough to perplex you shouldn't matter which way you pick anyway.

i disagree with this
i think when losing acting super pissed off and just betting everything you have in front of you left can look very natural. i don't mean going from 25 to 500 but if you bought in for 500 are down to 300, lose a 50 dollar bet and the count sky rockets say "all in" or something like that and shove them in. people get buried and try to get it back on one hand all the time. I would just make it my last shoe win or lose.

i've also just left rather than massively dropped my bet when the count tanks on a push which is generally when a bunch of 20s have been dealt. "ahhh i can't even with with twenties screw this place" etc
to me that looks a lot better than leaving or dropping massively after getting a blackjack when a bunch of 20s were also dealt

**Meistro123** · 01-26-2018, 02:16 PM

I just think that it is too obvious if there are a ton of low cards on the table and you go from betting nothing to betting a ton; even someone who doesn't know much about counting cards might get suspicious if they see that. Beating the game is only part of the battle. I'd rather delay the increase for a round when all those low cards from a minute ago have been forgotten about.

**Meistro123** · 01-26-2018, 02:21 PM

I also try to avoid exact bet amounts. So let's say your bet schedule is 2x$30, $80, $150, $200. I wouldn't always bet these numbers but instead if I'm at TC 3 I would often bet 2x70 or 2x80 or 2x90, lowering minorly if I'm losing or pressingly modestly if I am winning. You don't want to be too precise or methodically but rather you want to appear like you are betting hapazardly and just sort of randomly putting chips out. Or if it is TC +4.2 and you are betting $200 then win a hand and it drops to 3.8 I would just keep the bet where it is, especially if you have a much larger gap between the numbers. With 200 /150 it really doesn't matter that much because you can just be taking a few chips off for safety or w/e but if there is a dramatic difference with your bet spread it is unnatural and also doesn't give you much benefit since your edge is still basically the same.

**jimmybond007** · 01-26-2018, 02:22 PM

Depends on where you are playing and how often you play there. If you are slashing and burning as you go, screw the cover. If you are "milking" a store on a regular basis, cover might be worth something. You just need to ask the question "Is someone watching, or is there reason to believe I am being observed." IF you are being watched a well placed cover move can work excellent and actually buy you something. If you think you are under the radar and nobody is watching or dont think anyone is, why waste too much on cover?

On the games I play, I know what they are worth with no cover and have also looked into how much they are worth implementing a "cover strategy." Obviously the cover has a cost but only the player can answer the question on if its justified or not. Keep in mind that the better the game, the less the cost of betting cover, especially around the breakeven point as any sort of wild betting costs nearly nothing but assuming more variance.... On playing cover... if you are hovering right at the index, the play you chose pretty much doesn't matter, let the dealer or the floor person make the recommendation for you. There are many ways to disguise your skill without giving up much.

At the end of the day, we all can spot counters from a mile off, we know how they play, how they bet etc. Be smart and identify the times you do NOT want to look like a counter. If you choose to use any sort of cover, know what it costs...

**ZenMaster_Flash** · 01-26-2018, 04:15 PM

"Cover Plays" should be understood by all Card Counters.

It is part of "camouflage" ~ the image you create.

They are plays that you can make at a Zero True Count

that costs you virtually nothing in e.v. ("expected value")

I have taught others the concept of "Counter Basic Strategy"

(C B S) If you move all of your index numbers (indices) by +1

what do you think happens?

So ... e.g.

Stand:16 vs 10 at-1
Hit: A-7 vs Ace .at +2

... etc.

The plays are correct at the slightly higher index.

This is "cheap advertising" AND you may be seen as
an incompetent Card Counter; especially if you insure your strong hands of 21, 20, 19, 11 and take partial insurance on 18, 10, and 9.

What do ya' think?