Secret Monkey Count for Pontoon (Spanish 21)

[refinery]

Flash, where you been lately. I thought your might of died.

It's "might have" died.

[dharmaprija]

Ya'll jess fidin t' git a messa schoolin on Midwest, Southern linguistics. D' goodol boy prolly meant "have", eny pertneer gotr dun, nawmeen? Preeshatecha. Lol. Btw, Jeetyit?

[21forme]

It's "might have" died.

Don't pick on MWP. His brain is currently buried in the snow.

[21forme]

Welcome back, Flash.

[hexoralpha]

if possible , could u please send me also.
my email
[email protected]

thanks

[Montyb50]

I would love a copy of that as well if you don't mind. Please send to [email protected]. Thanks

[dharmaprija]

Ditto [email protected]

[ZenMaster_Flash]

While Three alluded to the fact that Spanish21 and Pontoon are different games;
I feel that it is important to understand that The Secret Monkey Count is NOT a
winning system for Pontoon.

"Forewarned is forearmed."

"A Word to the Wise is Sufficient."

[szecheryee6132]

Hi, anyone can further explain to me about secrets monkey count? I am sorry because i am new in here

[All Clear]

What questions do you have? I'm not permitted to give out the copy I have (I don't use it, instead using a more complicated system with an ace side count, that gives better results), but can answer general questions you may have. In short, it is a level two count for Spanish 21, designed for the S17 game. More powerful than Katarina's level one count.

[bjanalyst]

What questions do you have? I'm not permitted to give out the copy I have (I don't use it, instead using a more complicated system with an ace side count, that gives better results), but can answer general questions you may have. In short, it is a level two count for Spanish 21, designed for the S17 game. More powerful than Katarina's level one count.

If you are still around, All Clear, then you can answer the question posed by Aceside in the post “Index Chart for Secret Monkey Count” opened by Lifelit on 3-10-2021. Aceside requested how to use an ASC with SMC and Cohiba’s unsuccessfully attempted sims on SMC and SMC with ASC. I see in post 28 on 9-24-2019 you said “Yes, the count I use was simmed, and I have the results, which include appropriate index numbers. I wouldn't use it otherwise.” Lifelit’s post was closed on 3-24-2021 because Don was concerned the post was getting too long with no answers since no one was able to sim SMC with ASC for Spanish 21 S17 to get answers. So, I searched to see if someone else simmed SMC with ASC. And then I found your post. You already have sim results for SMC with ASC so why reinvent the wheel. You should be able to then definitely answer the questions that were raised by Aceside and others on Spanish 21 S17 using SMC with ASC.

I did not get a chance to post my suggestion on how to use SMC with ASC before the post was closed. Aceside and other readers of Lifelit’s 3-10-21 post would appreciate answers on how to use SMC with ASC. So, I am replying to this post with my suggestion of how to use SMC with ASC below.

So please verify or disprove if my analysis below on how to use SMC with ASC is correct. I do not want to give incorrect information to users of this forum, and you are the perfect person to ask. Also please keep in mind that my numbers listed below are approximate and not exact.

I had said that the basic strategy advantage gain per true count for SMC for Spanish 21 S17 is approximately 0.5% so I will use 0.5% per SMC true count in my discussion below. This is important for me to finish my analysis of SMC with ASC for Spanish 21 so the first question I need answered is what is the basic strategy advantage gain per true count for SMC for Spanish 21 S17 as Norm had concerns that 0.5% may not be correct. I will use that assumption in my analysis below.

So, I will list my analysis of SMC with ASC for Spanish 21 S17 below. Aceside wanted to know how to use an ASC with SMC for Spanish 21 S17. I would appreciate if you (or someone else if you are not around anymore) can verify my results before players use them or disprove my results if incorrect.

Before I begin to present my analysis of SMC with ASC I would like to compare SMC with ASC to HL with ASC both for Spanish 21, S17 as shown below.

Using SMC with ASC is much easier and a seamless transfer for the HL blackjack player to SMC Spanish 21 S17 as the betting is the same, both HL for blackjack and SMC for Spanish 21 S17 are balanced, and both use basic strategy with a few important strategy changes. Using HL for Spanish 21 S17 leads to a difficult (for HL blackjack players who use only balanced counts) unbalanced count with ASC adjustments for both betting and playing. With SMC only a single ASC adjustment for playing is required and that adjusted count is used with (Kat-HL indices + 4) for all playing situations.

First some definitions for ASC:
Adef = deficiency of Aces left in the shoe = Ap - 4*dp.
Aexc = excess Aces left in the shoe = (-1)*(Adef) = 4*dp – Ap.
dp = decks played and Ap = Aces played.

Using unbalanced HL with ASC, ASC adjustments to HL must be made for both betting and playing where brc = betting running count = HL + Aexc and psrc = playing strategy running count = HL + Adef. HL, psrc = HL + Adef and brc = HL + Aexc are all unbalanced at four per deck and thus are unwieldy for the blackjack HL player.

Using balanced SMC with ASC, brc = SMC so ASC adjustment to SMC needs to be made only for playing strategies where psrc = SMC + 2*(Adef). brc = SMC and psrc = SMC + 2*(Adef) are both balanced.

So here is my answer about SMC for Spanish 21 S17. As I mentioned earlier, the numbers given are not exact but are approximate and I just need to know if they are close enough for players to use against Spanish 21 S17. I do not need exact numbers.

1. For betting Spanish 21 S17, use SMC the same as you would use HL for betting blackjack.
Both HL for blackjack and SMC for Spanish 21 S17 start with an approximate house edge of 0.5% and basic strategy edge increases about 0.5% per true count. Norm was skeptical about the 0.5% increase in basic strategy advantage per SMC true count for Spanish 21 S17 so I need this verified. This is especially important to know so correct betting can be used with SMC.

2. For playing strategy indices, use psrc = playing strategy running count = SMC + 2*Adef.
By adding 2*Adef to SMC to get psrc what that effectively does is change the tag value of the Ace from minus two in SMC to zero in psrc which is perfect for playing strategies. Then (Kat-HL-indices + 4) can be used with this psrc. No other adjustments need to be made to the indices and no new indices need to be learned.

So, for SMC with ASC, I would use Spanish 21, S17 basic strategy from Wizard of Odds and then just memorize the following thirteen most important playing strategy adjustments using psrc = SMC + 2*Adef with the (Kat-HL + 4) indices shown below. You could use psrc = SMC + 2*Adef with all of (Kat-HL + 4) indices but I want to keep the system simple and easy to use with just these top thirteen strategy change which I believe will get most of the gain from SMC with ASC for Spanish 21 S17.

psrc = SMC + 2*(Adef) indices = (Kat-HL indices + 4)
Standing indices.
If hard 13 is 6-7 then increase indices below by 2.
If hard 14 is 7-7 then increase indices below by 2.
Player’s total………Dealer’s Up Card
………………………..…2….…….3….. …….4……..….5….…….6
13……………………………..……6…… ……4……….….2………..3
14…………………..….3…………2….... ..0

Late Surrender indices.
If hard 15 is 7-8 then increase indices below by 3.
Player’s total………Dealer’s Up Card
…………………..………9….…….T….. .…….A
15…………………..… 6…………4……….….5
16………………..…….4…………2….... ....2

So, for Spanish 21 S17 memorize these 13 indices and use psrc = SMC + 2*Adef with these indices. Then use Spanish 21 S17 basic strategy as given in Wizard of Odds for all other plays.

An ASC for SMC used with Spanish 21 S17 is to be contrasted with an ASC for HL used with blackjack where an ASC for HL and blackjack is basically worthless as an ASC for HL for blackjack gives almost no help with playing strategy and the Ace is already counted as -1 in HL which is perfect for blackjack betting.

SMC has a significantly higher BE than Kat-HL and psrc = SMC + 2*Adef has a significantly higher PE than Kat-HL. So, SMC with ASC should have a significantly higher SCORE than Kat's HL for Spanish 21 S17 which is what you stated in your posts above.

Also, SMC is balanced unlike Kat-HL which is unbalanced at four per deck. So, SMC and psrc true counts can be calculated just like HL true counts for blackjack.

And use (Kat-HL-indices + 4) for psrc indices so there are no new indices to learn or adjustments to be made.

So that is my answer to both Lifelit and Aceside questions on SMC for Spanish 21 S17.

I personally use the “more complicated” HL primacy count with two plus/minus side counts that I will not get into here but suffice is to say that the SMC with ASC system I mentioned above for Spanish 21 S17 seems to be an amazingly simple and powerful system.

Again, if you or someone else can verify my answer, I would appreciate it as I want only correct information for users of this forum.

[BJGenius007]

the basic strategy advantage gain per true count for SMC for Spanish 21 S17 is approximately 0.5% so I will use 0.5% per SMC true count in my discussion below. This is important for me to finish my analysis of SMC with ASC for Spanish 21

Your basic assumption is wrong. So the thesis based on that assumption is wrong.

[bjarg]

I found a post by Three explaining average change in advantage per true count for Spanish 21 and he says EoR for Spanish 21, as compared to blackjack, are "squishy" and linear estimates are not as accurate in Spanish 21 as in blackjack.

I am almost positive you are indeed Tthree.