Help Figuring my Max Bet for TRIP bankroll

[weballinoutacontro]

Hey all,

Would anyone here mind helping me come up with my max bet for use in 2 different games? Given a trip bankroll of approximately $10k? My total time played in the trip will be approximately 30-40 hours. I am willing to accept a fairly high RoR. My bankroll is replenishable, but I want to cap my loss for this shortish trip at $10k.

(Note: I have CVCX, but I can't get it to work on my PC. Crashes constantly.)

Game 1 - 6 deck: Spreading 1-2x10 units, DAS, LS, RSA (H or S17 will vary)

Game 2 - DD: Spreading 1-10 units, DAS, may or may not have LS, RSA (H or S17 will vary).

Let's assume decent but not fantastic Pen. Hi-Lo w/ I18, Fab4, no cover except not splitting 10s.

Thanks for the help.


PS: If anyone knows the formula or anything that they can refer me to for calculating a max bet for a trip bankroll with a finite length, rather than an overall bankroll, that would be awesome.


TL;DR: Honestly, all I'm looking for is the theoretical max bet of a $10k Bankroll to play a normal "good" DD/6deck game at ~10:1 spreads, and have a 20% or so RoR over ~30 hours of play. Thanks again.

[ZeeBabar]

Hey all,

Would anyone here mind helping me come up with my max bet for use in 2 different games? Given a trip bankroll of approximately $10k? My total time played in the trip will be approximately 30-40 hours. I am willing to accept a fairly high RoR. My bankroll is replenishable, but I want to cap my loss for this shortish trip at $10k.

(Note: I have CVCX, but I can't get it to work on my PC. Crashes constantly.)

Game 1 - 6 deck: Spreading 1-2x10 units, DAS, LS, RSA (H or S17 will vary)

Game 2 - DD: Spreading 1-10 units, DAS, may or may not have LS, RSA (H or S17 will vary).

Let's assume decent but not fantastic Pen. Hi-Lo w/ I18, Fab4, no cover except not splitting 10s.

Thanks for the help.


PS: If anyone knows the formula or anything that they can refer me to for calculating a max bet for a trip bankroll with a finite length, rather than an overall bankroll, that would be awesome.

My suggestion, $10 to 2 x $90 (at 6 deck, $100 bet at $10 table attracts attention).

At DD game, minimum bet at 1 unit and max bet at 10 unit would not really work, too large a spread. I would play $25 to $175 (1-7, and that is pushing it) or $10 to $90 but getting away with that spread is not easy.

[weballinoutacontro]

My suggestion, $10 to 2 x $90 (at 6 deck, $100 bet at $10 table attracts attention).

At DD game, minimum bet at 1 unit and max bet at 10 unit would not really work, too large a spread. I would play $25 to $175 (1-7, and that is pushing it) or $10 to $90 but getting away with that spread is not easy.

Thanks for the reply. However, I regularly play red chips to 2x$100 and DD $10-100. I have never come even close to a $10k loss. In a HUGE amount of hours. Biggest marathon session loss across a few casinos with these spreads has been maybe in the $2k area.

Hence, I feel comfortable going significantly larger. Just asking for some help sizing my bet appropriate to get to a 15-20% RoR or so, given a trip of maybe 30 or so hours playing. (I have no problem "slashing and burning" these games, but that irrelevant to the question posed. Not asking about longevity — just bet sizing).

Thanks for the input


eta: My thought was maybe a little bigger than a $25-250 spread. I've played pretty volatile DD games using this spread a good amount, and even in my worst session that felt extremely brutal, only went down around $4.5k or so. Definitely didn't get even close to 10k down in what felt like a game several standards of deviation below zero.



edit2: Honestly, all I'm looking for is the theoretical max bet of a $10k Bankroll to play a normal "good" DD/6deck game at ~10:1 spreads, and have a 20% or so RoR over ~30 hours of play. Thanks again.

[DSchles]

Thanks for the reply. However, I regularly play red chips to 2x$100 and DD $10-100. I have never come even close to a $10k loss. In a HUGE amount of hours. Biggest marathon session loss across a few casinos with these spreads has been maybe in the $2k area.

Hence, I feel comfortable going significantly larger. Just asking for some help sizing my bet appropriate to get to a 15-20% RoR or so, given a trip of maybe 30 or so hours playing. (I have no problem "slashing and burning" these games, but that irrelevant to the question posed. Not asking about longevity — just bet sizing).

Thanks for the input


eta: My thought was maybe a little bigger than a $25-250 spread. I've played pretty volatile DD games using this spread a good amount, and even in my worst session that felt extremely brutal, only went down around $4.5k or so. Definitely didn't get even close to 10k down in what felt like a game several standards of deviation below zero.



edit2: Honestly, all I'm looking for is the theoretical max bet of a $10k Bankroll to play a normal "good" DD/6deck game at ~10:1 spreads, and have a 20% or so RoR over ~30 hours of play. Thanks again.

Since you never, EVER, can simply get a straight answer here, to what was nonetheless a perfectly straightforward question with all the necessary information, I'll give it to you, with no recommendations, preaching, or stupid comments:

4.5/6, S17, DAS, LS, RSA, 2x1 to 2x10 spread. $10,000 trip bankroll. Sweet 16 + Fab 4. Play 30 hours. ROR 19%. Bet sizes should be 2 x $25 to 2 x $250. End of story.
See how easy that is, everyone?

Don

[21forme]

Since you never, EVER, can simply get a straight answer here, to what was nonetheless a perfectly straightforward question with all the necessary information...

Ya Think? :-)

T3 even tried to get a "which count is best" discussion started.

[Three]

T3 even tried to get a "which count is best" discussion started.

LoL. All I did was ask him to state his count. He already had so if that is enough to start a debate the OP is the one that would have started it. The debate gets started by the few on this forum that must try to sway others that the count that they decided is best for them is best for everyone. That can't apply to me as nobody else uses my count and I plan to keep it that way.

You have got to be kidding. If you haven't noticed I haven't participated in them for around a year or so and when I did I always said which count is best depends on the individual. There is no debate about which count is best on a computer simulation. But we don't make money on a computer simulation do we. We must deal with many issues when playing in a casino that just don't sim well.

A mistake prone person will say people make too many mistakes to realize the gain. A perfectionist that would rarely if ever make a mistake says you give up too much for the sake of simplicity. A savvy casino AP that goes unnoticed would say simplicity either makes you too easy to spot or cover to make you look stupid or a tolerable spread just costs too much for many counts.

I think the quoted comment illustrates why so few make it as an AP. They get an idea in their head and just can't see when things change. This is a very bad trait for an AP. An AP must quickly identify changes in order to exploit them before they get burned out. The inability to do so leaves the AP only exploiting opportunities that the casino is comfortable with them exploiting. That means they missed the best opportunities because the casino is not comfortable with them once they figure them out and the opportunity quickly wanes.

You may notice I never once mentioned any count. There is no need as we all know these to be true without mentioning any count. It is a tradeoff as to where individual counts fall in the prior description. Each person has different strengths and weaknesses and plays in casinos with different tolerances and have different philosophies about what is important to them. Hence the what count is best depends on the individual.

[21forme]

LoL. All I did was ask him to state his count.

This is all I read of the above novella. Earlier, you said, "Nobody can give you a good answer without knowing what count you use and how many indices." It makes little difference, but I perceived it as an implied "well if you were using my super duper system..."

In any case, I have noticed a big improvement in you responsiveness and brevity (except this time ), and that's why I removed you from my Ignore list a few months ago. Keep up the good work!

[Three]

Nobody can give you a good answer without knowing what count you use and how many indices.

[DSchles]

Nobody can give you a good answer without knowing what count you use and how many indices.

He stated both. Just read.

Don

[Three]

He stated both. Just read.

Don

My bad. It didn't register in my brain when I read it and I didn't notice it when scanning the post later. I actually had to scan it twice before noticing it after your post challenged me to find it. I guess that Sunday football hangover was affecting me.

Sorry about that chief.

[shake]

I would say 25 top bets for 20% ROR. So $400 top bet. Generally my worst (long) sessions i lose around 20 max bets. A $300 max bet would be pretty safe with 10k over that amount of time.

[Three]

I would say 25 top bets for 20% ROR. So $400 top bet. Generally my worst (long) sessions i lose around 20 max bets. A $300 max bet would be pretty safe with 10k over that amount of time.

I thought we were talking trip RoR not session RoR. How many sessions do you play on a trip?

[Ryemo]

Nobody can give you a good answer without knowing what count you use and how many indices.

That’s not true. C’mon, he already told you the spreads he’s using. I think that’ll suffice.